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三月份巴菲特关于中国股市的言论(似乎没被报道过)

(2008-06-24 12:53:42)
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分类: Stock market
A Discussion of Mr. Warren Buffett with Dr. George Athanassakos and Ivey MBA and HBA students. Question: What are your thoughts about the Chinese Stock market? How can you make money without investing a lot of money? Is it hard to raise money?

The Chinese stock market? I don’t know what markets are going to do. When I was over in China they were bombarding me with questions about the market and of course you have these A shares, including Petro China, which was going public in China. Petro China and others were trading at twice the price within China (at that time Chinese people were not permitted to buy shares in Hong Kong or in the United States) than outside China. This was really extraordinary. (大陆人不能买便宜的同公司海外上市股票是件很变态的事情)If you knew these restrictions were going to break down it would have been great to short the stocks in China and buy them elsewhere around the world. But the Chinese stock market has 1.2 billion people waking up to the stock markets and having an investing or gambling urge. The stock market was becoming wildly popular as we know in China. Petro China at one time, based on the Chinese prices, was the most valuable company in the world, and was selling for over 1 trillion dollars, whereas Exxon was only worth 500 billion. This made Petro China twice as valuable as the largest company in the world. I have no idea why and where that many people were relatively new to the market and were very excited about stocks. You do know in the end you have to buy things on a basis of when you get a value for what you pay. This seemed to lose relevance in a market like China. They had a situation like that in Kuwait 20 years ago. When a whole society, and a rich society, (certainly far richer than 15 years ago), a huge market opened up for them.( I have no idea whether the people get friendlier or crazier. That is not my game. My game is simply to buy something worth a dollar for 50 cents. Then if they go crazy in the right direction it helps me and if they go crazy in the other direction I just buy more. My job is to take advantage of craziness. And that goes back to Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor chapter 8. If you are going to invest based on value with a partner (lets say Mr. Market) - let’s say you each own half of a McDonalds stand. Every day he quotes a price at which he either wants to buy me out or sell me his interest. If he hears a bad rumour he low-balls it, so I buy. Other days he is all excited about some Burger King burning down and seeing some line ups and decides to give a high offer, so I sell. If I’m going to have a partner like that what kind of partner do I want? I want a psycho. The stupider he gets the better I am going to do. I don’t want some cool, calm rational partner. I want somebody with huge ups and downs - a manic depressive. Basically that’s what you get in the stock market some times. As long as you realize he is there to serve you, and not to instruct you, you can make a lot of money. You can’t listen to Mr. Market and think he must be right. Only listen to what he says in the context of: when this guy gets way out of line I am going to wack him. And basically that’s what you get in the stock market. In China you can’t tell how far the markets will go to extremes. (在中国市场你不知道啥时候会发生什么极端的事情,大涨或者大跌)You can’t tell that, I have no idea where the markets are going to go tomorrow or the next day or the next month or the next year. I do know that in the end stocks tend to sell for what they are worth. At least in the range of what they are worth. They go all over the place in between - but tend to true value in the end. (在中国这个市场股票没法给他确定一个合理的价值区间,我没法判断它明天,后天,下个月或者明年会怎么走)

总结一下:
1.中国股票市场是个畸形的市场,同样的东西在不同的地方能卖差距几倍的价钱。
2.中国的投资者和中国的市场一样,都是才富起来忽然有很多前不知道干嘛的主,人们没法判断这帮人会把股市拉的多高,或者砸的多底。
3.中国股市丫就没一个大家都能认可的估值标准,什么才是合理?没法判断,你让我杂投?

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