投资智慧(6)——价值在哪里?
(2009-07-03 16:49:03)
标签:
股票 |
分类: 价值投资智慧 |
We are often looking for broken growth stories, when a once-great company is no longer considered to be great. The market tends to overreact in these cases, as growth and momentum investors move on to the next new thing and the shareholder base turns. Since I wasn’t in the stock before, I’m not disappointed if something is no longer a high-flier. All I care about is the future potential relative to what I have to pay for it.
Alan Schram, 1.31.07
我们经常在寻找成长中断的故事,当一个曾经伟大的公司不再被认为伟大。市场对这种情形倾向于过度反应,成长型和动量型投资人都扑向下一个新宠。因为我不曾在其中,我对于它的折翼也不会感到失望。所有我关心的是未来的潜力相对于我对其付出的价格。
[W]e basically spend our time trying to uncover the promising turnarounds,
dullards and assorted investment misfits in the market’s underbrush that are largely neglected by the investment community. One of the key metrics we assign to our companies is an “analyst ratio,” which is simply the number of analysts who follow a company. The lower the better – as of the end of last year, about 65% of the companies in our portfolio
had virtually no analyst coverage.
Carlo Cannell, 3.31.06
我们通常花时间揭示那些企业效益有转好可能的、股性呆滞的,基本处于市场的草丛这下,几乎投资机构都不关心的股票。我们公司的一个关键选股指标就是“分析师比率”,就是少有分析师跟踪的。这个比率越低越好,截止到去年底,我们投资组合中65%的公司都没有被分析师所关注。
My returns have actually been slightly negatively correlated to the S&P 500. The reason is that most of my companies have zero momentum, zero hype, aren’t usually in cyclical businesses and have no analyst coverage. Why would they move in step with the market?
Aaron Edelheit, 1.31.08
我的回报实际上轻微地逊于S&P500。原因是我的大多数公司没有动量,没人渲染,通常也不是周期性的业务,没有分析师关注。如此这般,它们如何会同市场步调一致呢?
We often return to stocks that face a cyclical business downturn, but investors are overreacting to the prospect of a temporary dip in earnings. When the Fed is raising rates, for example, investor reaction is usually negative out of all proportion to economic reality. We bought banks,thrifts and mortgage companies in 1990, 1994 and 1999 as investors followed conventional wisdom and sold them.
Wally Weitz, 8.29.05
我们通常在景气周期的低迷时期回到股市,但普通投资者却对企业收益的暂时下降过度反应。普通投资者的负面反应程度通常与经济现实不成比例。我们在1990年、1994年和1999年买入银行、存借机构和抵押放款公司,而普通投资者按照传统的智慧在卖出。
An area we try to mine is busted IPOs. Buying at the IPO often means you’re
buying from smart sellers, but we’d much rather buy from dumb sellers – which is more likely to happen after an IPO company disappoints in some way and the people who bought in the initial offering bail.
Steven Romick, 7.31.08
我们尝试掘金的一个地方就是失败的IPO。公开发行时购买意味着你在从聪明的卖方手里进货,但我们更愿意从笨蛋卖家手里买货——这通常发生在IPO的公司在某种方式上令人失望,而公开发行的买家夺路而出时。
Holding companies are particularly interesting now because for some odd reason the discounts to the sum of the parts usually increase in bad markets, even as each part individually becomes more undervalued. That provides two layers of undervaluation.
Francisco García Paramés, 11.26.08
控股公司现在特别的有味道,因为由于一些特殊的原因,在差的市场里其组成的数量会打折扣,正巧每个组成个体也更加低估。这意味着双重的低估。
Wall Street’s focus on steady growth in quarterly earnings is ridiculous. I want to go into companies where on a reliable basis over a long period they keep increasing net asset value. That’s what we pay attention to.
Marty Whitman, 5.22.05
华尔街关注稳定的季度增长是可笑的。我只想涉足那些可信赖的公司,在长期内能保持净资产值的增长。这才是我们看重的。
In general, we're far more interested in cyclical companies that are well-capitalized, that don't lose money at the bottom of the cycle and whose peaks and troughs are both higher over time.
Charles de Lardemelle, 11.26.08
总之,我们对资产良好的、在景气循环底部不赔钱的周期性公司更有兴趣。它们波动的峰和谷的跨度非常大。
One general thing we’ll do is focus on areas that are not being talked about. We’ll look at each other and say, “I haven’t heard anything about agricultural- equipment manufacturers. I wonder what’s going on there?”
Donnell Noone, 4.30.08
我们总的原则是集中在被谈论得少的领域。我们将互相对望着说:“我没有听到任何关于农业设备的生产企业。我不明白那里会怎么样?”
Music to my ears is when something is considered dead money and people say, “It looks okay, but I’ll come back to it later when this or that issue resolves itself.” That to me shouts, “Look here.”
Jeffrey Schwarz, 5.30.08
当一些东西被认为是影响资金流动,并且说:“看起来还行,但我等这个或那个问题解决以后再回来看。”这对我来说象音乐一样动听,这就象是对我大喊“注意看这!”
Historically, value investors have found opportunity in declining businesses with companies that could milk cash flow and make smart investments elsewhere. The idea, properly so, was that you could get free call on any new-business upside because the stocks were so cheap. This isn’t happening any more in areas of rapid technological change because the cash flows evaporate faster than you ever dreamed.
James Chanos, 7.29.05
从历史上看,价值投资者发掘这样的机会,公司的业务在下降,但公司依旧能挤出现金流并且到处进行明智的投资。……这在快速技术变化领域不常发生,因为它们的现金流蒸发得比你梦到的还快。
I’m looking for steady cash flows, reinvested on owners’ behalf by honest and able management. Steady cash flows come from businesses that, for one reason or another, enjoy the perception of indispensability or their products.
Thomas Russo, 6.30.06
我寻找稳定的现金流,这些现金被诚实和能干的管理层用于代表股东再投资。