When you've been around as long as I have, you realize that value manifests itself in different ways at various times in the market.

William Fries, 10.31.08

如果你在市场中呆的时间同我一样长，你就会发现价值会在不同的时间以不同的方式自己出来。

It’s often when companies are in the midst of change – buying or selling divisions, installing new management, reorganizing or restructuring. Change brings uncertainty, so many investors want to wait out that uncertainty until the situation is easier to analyze. We think that uncertainty is what creates opportunities.

Peter Langerman, 12.30.05

通常来讲，一个公司会处在如下的变化之中，比如买或卖一个公司，变更新的管理层，改组或重建。变化会带来不确定性，所以很多投资者等待公司走出不确定直到情形变得容易分析。我们认为，这各不确定性就是创造机会的所在。

I look for companies that may be losing a bit of money, break-even or even a bit negative cash flow, but where two to three years out you can get $1 worth of earnings power for every $5 in stock price. Most investors worry about next quarter, not what will be in two to three years, so that’s why these stocks can be so cheap relative to the longer-term earnings

power. Companies eventually get priced on earnings power, not current earnings.

Matthew Feshbach, 5.22.05

我寻找一些可能正在赔了一点钱、收支刚刚平衡甚至现金流刚刚为负的公司，但两三年以后你就可以用5美元的股价得到1美元的赢利能力。许多投资者只关心下个季度，而不是后两三年，所以这些股票相对于长期的赢利能力才会这么便宜。公司按最终的赢利能力来定价，而不是按现在的赢利能力。

We focus first on good businesses, with high returns on capital, barriers to entry and significant free cash flow generation over a cycle. If you're right about the business, time should be your friend, so catalysts are not important.

Charles de Vaulx, 11.26.08

我们首先关注好的公司业务，拥有高的资产回报，高的进入壁垒，在一个周期中可产生大量的自由现金流。如果你正确地选择了这样的公司，时间将会是你的朋友，别的条件就不重要了。

In general, the best thing for us is to find companies that have really stumbled, but where you can look at their past and understand why they are going to earn something much better in the future. That’s opposed to looking at a company like Amazon.com, for example, which might be a great business, but where understanding exactly what the model is going to be in the future isn’t easy. It’s a lot easier to look at the prospects for a railcar manufacturer, whose business has been the same for decades.

Steven Romick, 7.31.08

总之，对我们来说最好的事情就是发现了真正遇到麻烦的公司，但是你得看看它们的过去并且理解为什么它们未来的前景广阔。这不是指象Amazon这样的公司，也许它是一个好公司，但精确地理解它未来的赢利模式很不容易。而了解一家火车车厢的生产企业相对容易，它们的业务几十年不变。

In my experience, stocks begin to fall out of favor when companies miss Wall Street estimates and then really get hammered when actual earnings decline. That’s Uncovering Value when prices can be least efficient, as the market extrapolates short-term trends too far into the future and also ignores companies that may still have a few disappointing quarters ahead.

Kevin O’Boyle, 11.21.07

以我的经验有，当公司未达到华尔街的估值，它的股票就会失宠，如果一旦收益下降，那将是破鼓万人锤……

Dreman Value Management has research that shows something like 40% of all

earnings announcements are “surprises.” Overreactions to those surprises happen all the time, which often creates great buying opportunities.

John Dorfman, 10.31.08

Dreman价值管理机构进行的一项研究表明，40%的估值收益的宣告会令投资人“惊异”。对这种惊异的过度反应会经常发生，也经常创造非常好的买入机会。

Most of the time we’re picking up the pieces after a high-growth company hits the wall at 80 miles per hour, having made at least one too many investments to try to sustain an unsustainable growth rate. Public markets can actually conspire to screw companies up. When you’re growing fast, you get this big P/E and pretty soon you have the wrong investors with ridiculous expectations. You try to meet those ridiculous expectations and do things contrary to shareholder value.

Jeffrey Ubben, 1.31.06

If you look at technology-driven growth industries over the past two centuries – steam engines, railroads, telephony, electric power, the Internet – people become too excited about growth and overinvest in it. When the bubbles burst, markets overcorrect on the downside, even though the fundamental growth drivers may still be as present as they were before. We love to find jewels buried amid the rubble after that kind of explosion occurs.

David Nierenberg, 7.28.06

如果你看一看在过去的200年技术驱动成长的行业，如蒸汽机、铁路、电话、发电和互联网，就会发现人们对于成长的激情并过度投资。当泡沫崩裂后，市场又会向下过度修正，而基本的成长驱动依然象往常一样存在。我们喜欢在这样的泡沫破裂后，在瓦砾堆中寻找宝石。