翻译：燕子   校对：Catherine

The general stock market in 1959

     The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.47% for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.97% is indicated for 1959.

     道琼斯工业平均指数毫无疑问是应用最广泛的股票市场行为指数，它展现了1959年的或许并不完善的市场情形。该指数当年从583增长到679点，或者说年收益率为16.47%。加上已经发放给股东的红利，总收益在1959年达到19.97%。

     Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.

    尽管这显示了一个强健的市场，但是在纽约股票交易所中，下跌的股票多于上涨的股票，比例为710比628。道琼斯工业平均指数和公用事业平均指数都有不同程度的下降。

    Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp., the nation’s largest closed-end investment company (total asset, $400 million) had an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 market in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:

     多数投资信托与工业平均指数相比都要差得多。Tri-Continental 公司，作为全国最大的封闭式投资公司（总资产达到四亿美元），全年的总投资收益为5.7%。公司的董事长——Fred Brown, 在一次分析家协会的讲话中透露了此数据和1959的股票市场的相关情况：

    “But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental’s holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. Perhaps we haven’t had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is a limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders’ money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead.”

    “尽管我喜欢这个投资组合，但是1959年Tri-Continental 公司持有股份的表现很令人失望。在这样一个市场中，投资者的情绪对1959年的市场股价波动起到大部分的作用，这对受过价值投资训练并接受长期投资理念的投资经理来说确实比较难以做出决策。或许我们的步伐调整的不合适。然而，我认为一家投资机构——如Tri-Continental投资公司，都应该对持股人的资金设定一个可以承受的风险上限，而且我们相信下一年的投资组合会处于良好的状态。

     Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country’s largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.

     马萨诸塞投资者信托，是全国最大的共同基金，其总资产达到15亿美元，在1959年取得了9%的总收益。

     Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the present level of “blue chip” security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standards. I don’t think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a “New Era” philosophy where tree really do grow to the sky.

    你们大多都知道好多年来我都对股市的总体水平非常担忧。到目前为止，这种谨慎好像并不是十分必要。按照以前的标准，目前的“蓝筹股”的价格水平包含了大量的投机成分和相应的损失风险。或许其他估值标准正在发展，并将永久地替代旧标准。但我不这么认为。我或许错了；然而，我宁愿接受由于过度保守而招致的惩罚，而不愿面对由于采纳树木将长至天外的“新纪元”哲学观的错误而带来的后果，这种后果或许是永久的资本损失。

     Results in 1959

     There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.

    1959年的经营结果

    在之前的信中，我一直强调按照我所建议的业绩考核标准，我们在下跌或者盘整时期取得相对较好的投资结果，而在急速上涨的市场中，却不那么明显（相对一般市场指数和主要的投资信托基金）。

     We were fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80% comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payment made to partners, etc. over the past few years, there hasn’t been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and the variance is narrowing as the portfolios tend to become comparable.

     1959年，我们很幸运的取得了相当好的结果。六个合伙企业通过全年的运作获得的总的净收益为分布于22.3%到30.0%之间，平均水平大约为25.9%。这些合伙企业的投资组合现在大约有80%的可比性，但是因为证券和现金等获取的时间不同、对合伙人的支付等原因，也存在一些差异。过去的几年中，没有任何一个合伙企业的表现会年复一年的持续的处于最高点或者最低点，随着投资组合趋向于类似，这种差异逐步缩小。

     The overall net gain is determined on the basis of market value at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner, but after operating expenses.

    总体净收益是由年初年末的市场价值水平决定的，并经过对合伙人的资金支付以及获取进行调整。而不是基于当年实际实现的收益计算的，这样有利于衡量当年的可变现资产价值的变化。这个净收益率没有扣除合伙人的股息（这点在合伙人协议中已明确指出），也没有扣除应该支付给一般合伙人红利，但是已经扣除了营业费用。

     The principal operating expense is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to 4% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course, penalized our results to the extent of 4%.

    主要的营业费用是内布拉斯卡无形资产税，税额大约为几乎所有证券市场价值的4%。去年是这个税种第一年有效的实施，当然，这也意味着我们的投资收益减少了4%。

    The present portfolio:

    Last year I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of the assets of the various partnerships. Presently, this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been made for strong reasons. In effect, this Company is partially an investment trust owning some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at a substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and a conservative appraisal of the operating business.

    现在的投资组合

    去年我提到一项新的投资，涉及各个合伙企业总资产的25%。现在，这项投资的比例达到总资产的35%。这个比例已经高的不寻常，但是我们有很强理由这么做。事实上，这家公司部分资产属于一只投资信托基金，这只基金拥有大约30到40只其他高质量的证券。我们是在其资产价值的很大折扣上买入，这个资产价值的计算是基于证券的市场价值并对营运业务做出比较保守的估值。

    We are the Company’s largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our ideas. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until its disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.

    我们以非常大优势成为这家公司的最大持股人，而且其他两个较大的持股人同意我们的观点。这次投资的业绩会优于一般股票市场的可能性非常大，直到该公司进行资产处置，而且我希望这能在今年发生。

    The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.

    投资组合中剩下的65%投资于我认为被低估的证券或者处于获利了结操作中。尽可能的，我继续试图在至少部分被一般市场行为损害的环境下进行投资。

    This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance.

    这种政策会带来的结果是：熊市的业绩显著优于市场，而牛市的业绩比较一般。前一个预测可以在今年受到检验，因为，在写这封信的时候，道琼斯工业指数已经下降了1959年上涨幅度的一半以上。

    Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.

WARREN E. BUFFETT

  2-20-60

   有任何问题，或者任何方面没搞清楚，非常乐意收到您的来信。

 沃伦·巴菲特

  2-20-60