加载中…银行业不良资产研究（四）
(2012-08-02 18:36:12)
标签：
上市银行不良资产趋势股票 |
分类： 银行业 |
不良资产是银行信贷行为的必然产物，对于不良资产，我们更应该考察银行对此是不是做好了充分的准备。前3个系列主要讨论不良资产及与贷款之间的关系及生成趋势，本篇主要把拨备纳入考察范围。根据老股民的意见，为动态反映资产质量的趋势，按照新增不良率和信用成本两项指标以及两者的关系进行进一步分析。
一、历年新增不良和新增不良率。按照本系列（二）的标准，各家银行逐年不良资产采取考虑净核销后的金额，每年年未余额减去年初余额为新增不良余额，新增不良余额再除以年未贷款余额，得出表1。这种趋势与本系列（三）讨论的一致，无须重复。
|
表1.考虑净核销历年新增不良率 |
||||||
|
|
民生 |
招商 |
浦发 |
深发 |
兴业 |
华夏 |
|
2001 |
1.31% |
0.07% |
0.60% |
0.40% |
NA |
NA |
|
2002 |
0.00% |
-0.65% |
0.04% |
1.67% |
NA |
NA |
|
2003 |
0.05% |
-0.95% |
-0.42% |
1.66% |
0.97% |
0.98% |
|
2004 |
0.54% |
0.22% |
0.57% |
2.63% |
0.70% |
0.49% |
|
2005 |
0.23% |
0.38% |
-0.12% |
0.16% |
0.34% |
0.11% |
|
2006 |
0.36% |
-0.10% |
0.26% |
-0.02% |
-0.09% |
0.07% |
|
2007 |
0.13% |
-0.21% |
-0.15% |
-0.31% |
-0.23% |
0.08% |
|
2008 |
0.25% |
-0.07% |
0.04% |
-0.68% |
-0.01% |
0.04% |
|
2009 |
-0.06% |
0.01% |
-0.09% |
-2.85% |
-0.14% |
-0.02% |
|
2010 |
-0.07% |
-0.05% |
-0.18% |
0.05% |
-0.05% |
-0.09% |
|
2011 |
0.03% |
-0.01% |
0.00% |
-0.10% |
0.01% |
-0.33% |
二、历年信用成本。银行提取拨备就是为了应对未来可能生成的不良资产，用每年年未拨备减去年初拨备可得表2。除个别银行的个别年份外，6家较早上市银行每年新增的拨备均有所上升，如以2003年为基数进行对比的话，民生为7.6倍,华夏为6.1倍,浦发为5.1倍，招商为4.4倍，深发为2.7倍，兴业为2.3倍。
|
表2.历年新增拨备 |
||||||
|
年份 |
民生 |
招商 |
浦发 |
深发 |
兴业 |
华夏 |
|
2001 |
5.09 |
|
-3.11 |
0.04 |
|
|
|
2002 |
5.46 |
0.9 |
7.21 |
7.06 |
|
|
|
2003 |
9.36 |
17 |
13.23 |
9.35 |
11.07 |
6.9 |
|
2004 |
8.57 |
24 |
26.51 |
9.38 |
20.64 |
7.69 |
|
2005 |
7.43 |
25.9 |
16.58 |
11.2 |
6.97 |
5.23 |
|
2006 |
14.26 |
27.72 |
22.05 |
7.05 |
11.64 |
10.32 |
|
2007 |
12.46 |
24.68 |
25.49 |
-9.13 |
8.38 |
15.64 |
|
2008 |
42.22 |
26.92 |
9.67 |
-39.97 |
22.86 |
22.82 |
|
2009 |
33.56 |
25.63 |
20.48 |
19.28 |
2.35 |
9.63 |
|
2010 |
46.07 |
52.86 |
40.3 |
24.69 |
21.36 |
23 |
|
2011 |
70.88 |
74.13 |
67.36 |
24.95 |
25.43 |
41.86 |
|
比较 |
757.26% |
436.06% |
509.15% |
266.84% |
229.72% |
606.67% |
用各家银行每年新增的拨备除以年未贷款余额,我们可得到表3。除了深发波动较大、兴业比率较低外，其他4家银行的信用成本均在0.2%-0.7%之间。
|
表3.历年信用成本 |
||||||
|
|
民生 |
招商 |
浦发 |
深发 |
兴业 |
华夏 |
|
2001 |
0.69% |
|
-0.32% |
0.01% |
|
|
|
2002 |
0.53% |
0.04% |
0.41% |
0.84% |
|
|
|
2003 |
0.46% |
0.55% |
0.52% |
0.85% |
0.71% |
0.46% |
|
2004 |
0.30% |
0.64% |
0.85% |
0.74% |
1.02% |
0.42% |
|
2005 |
0.20% |
0.55% |
0.44% |
0.72% |
0.29% |
0.22% |
|
2006 |
0.30% |
0.49% |
0.48% |
0.39% |
0.36% |
0.40% |
|
2007 |
0.22% |
0.37% |
0.46% |
-0.41% |
0.21% |
0.51% |
|
2008 |
0.64% |
0.31% |
0.14% |
-1.41% |
0.46% |
0.64% |
|
2009 |
0.38% |
0.22% |
0.22% |
0.54% |
0.03% |
0.22% |
|
2010 |
0.44% |
0.37% |
0.35% |
0.61% |
0.25% |
0.44% |
|
2011 |
0.59% |
0.45% |
0.51% |
0.53% |
0.26% |
0.68% |
|
表4.信用成本与新增不良率差值 |
||||||
|
|
民生 |
招商 |
浦发 |
深发 |
兴业 |
华夏 |
|
2001 |
-0.62% |
|
-0.92% |
-0.39% |
|
|
|
2002 |
0.53% |
0.69% |
0.37% |
-0.83% |
|
|
|
2003 |
0.41% |
1.50% |
0.93% |
-0.81% |
-0.26% |
-0.53% |
|
2004 |
-0.25% |
0.42% |
0.29% |
-1.89% |
0.32% |
-0.07% |
|
2005 |
-0.04% |
0.17% |
0.56% |
0.56% |
-0.05% |
0.11% |
|
2006 |
-0.06% |
0.59% |
0.22% |
0.41% |
0.45% |
0.32% |
|
2007 |
0.10% |
0.57% |
0.62% |
-0.10% |
0.44% |
0.43% |
|
2008 |
0.39% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
-0.73% |
0.46% |
0.61% |
|
2009 |
0.44% |
0.20% |
0.31% |
3.39% |
0.18% |
0.24% |
|
2010 |
0.51% |
0.42% |
0.53% |
0.56% |
0.30% |
0.53% |
|
2011 |
0.56% |
0.46% |
0.51% |
0.63% |
0.25% |
1.01% |
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