美国国务院国际信息局《美国参考》

Stephen Kaufman

华盛顿 — 某些美国人感到惊讶的是，即将成为共和党总统候选提名人的米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）7月11日在美国资格最老的民权组织发表讲话。据报道，非洲裔美国人对共和党总统提名人的支持率过去几十年来已跌到10%以下。

罗姆尼在休斯敦召开的全国有色人种促进会 (NAACP)大会上发表讲话凸显了非洲裔美国人在今年大选中的重要性，他们在关键性的摇摆州弗吉尼亚、北卡及俄亥俄拥有很大一部分选票。这三州一共掌握了46张选举团票。7月12日，现任副总统拜登也到会发表了讲话，欧巴马总统则通过录像向与会代表发表了讲话。

从近年的情况看来，罗姆尼在今年11月5日投票时不大可能获得许多非洲裔的投票。共和党1996年的提名人只吸引了14%的黑人票。后来随着民主党登记选民和扩大宣传的努力，加上共和党的政纲日趋保守，导致许多非洲裔人与之疏远，这一曾经以林肯总统为代表、支持结束奴隶制的政党，如今对大部分非洲裔美国人的吸引力变得有限。

小说家托妮·莫里森（Toni Morrison）1998年称克林顿总统为“我们的第一位黑人总统”。她说，克林顿的背景和生活方式体现了“几乎每一黑色蕴意”。欧巴马总统2008年获得提名，使非洲裔美国人第一次有机会选举一个具有非洲根源的总统，65%有资格投票的黑人选民参加投票，创下所有少数族裔中最高的投票纪录。从全美来看，有1610万非洲裔美国人投了票，比2004年多出200万，其中95%的人投了欧巴马的票。

美国大部分政治观察人士认为，非洲裔美国人对2012年大选的热情不能与2008年相提并论，因为已有一位非洲裔美国总统入主白宫，人们因此不再那么新奇。虽然民调显示在一般情况下该族裔中的多数人支持欧巴马，但共和党与民主党的幕僚们所关注的重要问题是，一个历史上投票率低下的群体是否还会去投票，特别是在北卡这样的摇摆州，这些州的黑人参加投票是欧巴马当年获胜的关键因素，使欧巴马在这些州以非常低的票差胜过来自亚利桑那州的联邦参议员约翰·麦凯恩（John McCain）。

黑人关注的是就业、司法公正、选民登记法等问题

在今年的摇摆州中，非洲裔选民在北卡、弗吉尼亚以及俄亥俄州所占的比例分别是23%、20%以及11%。如同其他美国人一样，他们主要关注的是美国经济和就业。今年6月非洲裔的失业率为14.4%，比全美平均值高出6个百分点。

黑人选民还尤其关注刑法公正问题。美国研究与维权组织“儿童辩护基金”2009年的报告指出，2001年出生的黑人男孩，有三分之一的人一生中有可能进监狱，而拉美裔男孩为六分之一，白人男孩则为十七分之一。2001年出生的非洲裔女孩，与其他族裔女孩相比，其进监狱的可能性也很大。

非洲裔社区还关注不同州关于新选民登记的身份证规定，这些州要求选民出示政府发放的身份证方能在其登记的投票站进行投票。 根据美国法律，各州在其辖区内自行决定投票方式和地点，但那些对选民身份证有要求的州相关法律却各有不同。支持选民身份证法律的人士表示，这有助于减少选举舞弊，但反对者反驳说，这类法律不公平，针对的是非洲裔美国人以及其他少数族裔，因为他们持有身份证的可能性相对较小。

围绕身份证的争论十分敏感，因为自奴隶制和南北战争结束以来，一些白人长期试图剥夺黑人选民的权利。美国宪法第十五修正案早在1870年就赋予男性非洲裔美国人以投票权，但前南方邦联州的反对派有效地压制了这一权利。

南方州的立法机构制定了旨在阻止或妨碍黑人投票的法规，诸如人头税、要求出示财产证明以及文化水平测试等。为了帮助贫穷的白人选民不受这些限制，立法机构又制定了后来以“祖父条款”（grandfather clause）著称的法令，规定如果一位选民的祖父曾投过票，那么上述法规对其就不适用。

直到 1965 年《选举权法》（Voting Rights Act）签署之后，全美国的非洲裔选民才得以真正地行使他们的选举权。

5月4日，霍华德大学（Howard University）政治学教授洛伦佐·莫里斯（Lorenzo Morris）在华盛顿的外国记者中心（Foreign Press Center）告诉新闻记者，美国的10个州最近已颁行了选民身份证法（voter ID law），而且“几乎可以不容置疑地说，这些法令如果实施将使共和党候选人获益”。

莫里斯说：“从统计数字上来看，其影响并不像你可能设想的那么重大”，但它将在一个选情非常接近的摇摆州可以想见地起到决定性作用。以佛罗里达州为例，该州是通过了这项新法的州之一，也是最终在2000年大选中决定了乔治·W·布什（George W. Bush）和阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore）谁胜谁负的州。莫里斯估计，选民身份证法可能对该州约5000人产生影响。

他指出：“要知道，布什仅以不到500票的微弱优势赢得了该州，因此，如果你以要求选民提供身份证明的方法去阻止人们投票，它……可能起到相当重大的作用，特别是在那些关系重大的州”。

Attendees at the NAACP annual convention listen to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s speech.

Washington — Some Americans were surprised that presumed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney addressed the oldest U.S. civil rights organization’s convention on July 11, since African-American support for Republican presidential nominees has dropped well below 10 percent over the past several decades.

Romney’s remarks at the convention of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) in Houston highlight the importance of African Americans to the 2012 contest, where they constitute a significant voting block in the crucial swing states of Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio, which have a combined total of 46 Electoral College votes. On July 12, Vice President Biden also addressed the convention, and President Obama spoke to participants through a recorded video message.

Based on recent history, Romney is unlikely to get many African-American votes on November 5. The Republican Party’s 1996 nominee attracted only 14 percent support from black voters. With subsequent Democratic registration and outreach efforts, as well as an increasingly conservative Republican Party platform that has alienated many in the community, the party of President Abraham Lincoln that championed the end of African-American slavery now has limited appeal in many African-American communities.

In 1998, novelist Toni Morrison described President Bill Clinton as “our first black president,” saying his background and lifestyle displayed “almost every trope of blackness.” Barack Obama’s 2008 nomination gave African Americans their first chance to elect a president with African roots, and 65 percent of eligible black voters showed up at the polls, producing the highest turnout of any minority group. Nationally, 16.1 million African Americans voted — 2 million more than in 2004 — and 95 percent of them chose Obama.

Most U.S. political observers believe African-American enthusiasm in the 2012 election will not equal that of 2008, now that the novelty of having an African-American president has worn off. Even though polls show that community members overwhelmingly support Obama, the key question on the minds of both Republican and Democratic strategists is whether a group that historically has low voter turnout will go to the polls, especially in swing states like North Carolina, where black participation was the key factor in Obama’s extremely narrow win over Arizona Senator John McCain.

BLACK CONCERNS INCLUDE UNEMPLOYMENT, INCARCERATION, VOTER ID LAWS

In the 2012 swing states, African-American voters make up 23 percent of the electorate in North Carolina, 20 percent in Virginia and 11 percent in Ohio. Like other Americans, they are chiefly concerned about the U.S. economy and jobs. The unemployment rate among African Americans in June was at 14.4 percent — more than 6 points higher than the national average.

Black voters also are deeply concerned over criminal justice issues. The U.S. research and advocacy group Children’s Defense Fund reported in 2009 that a black boy born in 2001 has a 1 in 3 chance of going to prison in his lifetime, compared to a 1 in 6 chance for a Latino boy and a 1 in 17 chance for a white boy. African-American girls born in 2001 also were disproportionately more likely to go to prison than their peers.

African-American communities also are concerned about new voter identification (ID) laws in various states that require voters to present an official government-issued ID at their registered polling place to vote. Under U.S. law, states are responsible for how and where ballots are cast within their borders, and among those with voter ID requirements, the law varies. Proponents of the voter ID laws say they will reduce election fraud, but opponents counter that the laws unfairly target African Americans and other minority groups who are less likely to have IDs.

The controversy over IDs is particularly sensitive because of a long history of white efforts to disenfranchise black voters since the end of slavery and the Civil War. The 15th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution gave African-American men the right to vote in 1870, but opposition in former Confederate states effectively suppressed that right.

Southern state legislatures enacted measures designed to prevent or discourage blacks from voting, such as poll taxes, requiring proof of property ownership, and literacy tests. To help poor white voters overcome these restrictions, legislatures instituted what became known as the “grandfather clause," which said the measures would not apply if a voter’s grandfather had voted.

It was not until the 1965 Voting Rights Act was signed that African Americans were truly able to exercise their franchise across the United States.

Howard University political science professor Lorenzo Morris told journalists at Washington’s Foreign Press Center May 4 that 10 U.S. states have recently enacted voter ID laws, and “it is almost incontrovertible to say that to the extent they are enforced, they would benefit the Republican candidates.”

“The impact is statistically not as impressive as one might think,” Morris said, but it could conceivably decide the outcome in a closely contested swing state. Citing Florida, which is among those that passed a new law and which ultimately decided the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, Morris speculated that voter ID restrictions could affect around 5,000 people in the state.

“Remember, Bush won Florida by less than 500 votes. So if you discourage people from voting due to voter IDs, it ... can have some significant effect, especially in critical states,” he said.