加载中…在市场上赚钱的最好方法
(2011-04-14 00:04:31)
标签：
财经 |
2005年，当倒买倒卖美国房地产的热潮接近沸点之时，伯南克在电视采访中坚称房地产市场不是个泡沫，是美国经济强盛的表现。后来，当房价开始走低时，他又公开说那不会影响到整体经济的增长，因为美国的全国房价指数历史上从来没有下降过。结果房价永远上升的历史现在不得不被改写。
2009年，当美联储局开始第一次量化宽松货币计划的时候，伯南克在一个电视节目上告诉采访者量化宽松计划就相当于增印钞票。一年之后，当第二次量化宽松货币计划启动时，在同一个电视节目上他却改口说量化宽松计划不是增印钞票，所以不会引发通货膨胀。那到底哪个说法是真的？
最近，他又在国会质询中说，他不认为通货膨胀会成为一个大问题，因为他能在15分钟之内就开始提升利率控制住通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀真的像他所说的那么容易控制的住话，那过去多次发生的通货膨胀时期是怎么回事？
现在来看看屡破新低的美元指数吧：
全球各地的股民都以为他们炒的是股票，其实不然，实际上他们所做的相当于货币市场上的套利交易（Carry Trade)。如今全世界的各种风险资产都在美元持续贬值的影响之下。
全球股市指数与货币套利交易的同步性：
现在美元指数正处于一个关键点，伯南克是左右为难，如果他继续实行第三次量化宽松计划以刺激美国的经济和支撑美国的股市，可能面临的风险是原材料价格攀升得更高、美元进一步大幅贬值、甚至威胁到美元的世界储备货币地位。而且原油和其它原材料价格的高涨迟早会抑制经济的增长，给股市造成压力。如果他停止实行第三次量化宽松计划、从金融市场上撤走流动资金，那么失去支撑的美国股市很可能下跌，逆转伯南克原本所期望的“财富效应”。他到底该怎么办？
在金融市场上有句俗语说“不要与联储局作对”，可是如果联储局的领头人既愚蠢又懦弱，那句话就不成立了。1980年代时期的联储局主席保罗·伏尔克为了控制恶性通货膨胀的蔓延，有头脑、有胆量不管他人的意见去做他该做的事，而伯南克根本不能与伏尔克相比，伯南克一辈子都在大学或政府里任职，从来没有在现实的商业世界中或金融市场上承担过个人的风险。他的行为准则不过就是按照统治阶层的规矩办事，千万不要触动掌权者们，不然他就会丢掉工作。在美国大多数真正的顶级聪明人物们不想去作总统或联储局主席，他们最想做的是建立对冲基金、成为亿万富翁，然后用金钱去影响美国的政治。难怪头脑更聪明、更有魄力、在治理国家方面更有能力的人当不上总统，而当上总统的是讨人喜欢的好莱坞二流演员、德克萨斯州的石油商人、乔治亚州的花生农场主、来自阿肯色州的风流律师、大学平均成绩C的美国富二代、和能言善辩、外强中干的芝加哥社区活动的组织者。
现在我们正处于一个暴风雨来临之前的平静时期，金融市场的波动率迟早会大幅度攀升起来，到时候选择与最大的傻瓜做对家的人们就该收获成果了，让我们拭目以待吧。
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The best way to make money in the market is to bet against the
dumbest people out there. This is the main take-home message from
THE BIG SHORT by Michael Lewis.
Right now, the biggest dummy out there is Ben Bernanke. Take a look
at what he did in the past. In 2005, he insisted that there was no
bubble in real estate. When housing prices started to fall, he
stated publicly that the economy was doing just fine because a
nationwide housing price decline had never happened in history.
Well, duh.
When QE1 started, Bernanke said on 60 minutes TV interview that
quantitative easing is equivalent to printing money. One year
later, when QE2 started, he changed his mind on the same program
saying that quantitative easing is not printing money and will not
result in higher inflation. Well, which way is it?
Recently, he said inflation caused by his money printing is not a
problem because he could control inflation in 15 minutes by raising
interest rate. Well, let's take a closer look at the current sorry
state of the US dollar.
US dollar Index
People in the equity market think they are buying stocks. Not
exactly. Actually, they are doing currency carry trade since these
days all risk assets are driven by the declining dollar.
The correlation between equities and FX carry trade
Now the dollar index is at a critical point and Ben Bernanke is
between a rock and a hard place. Push down the value of dollar
further by QE3 to milk the economy and the fake stock market
rebound? He risks even higher commodities inflation, the collapse
of the dollar, and maybe the loss of the dollar's reserve currency
status. Continuing rise of oil and other commodity prices will
surely hurt the economic recovery and put pressure on the stock
market. No QE3 and withdraw liquidity from the system? The stock
market will look ugly the moment he stops pumping money. What is he
going to do?
A cliché in the market says "Don't fight the Fed." Well, not if the
person who leads the Fed is both dumb and timid. Bernanke is not
Paul Volcker who actually had a brain and courage to carry out
whatever he thought was the right thing to do. Bernanke is a
theorist who has never take on risks in the business world or
financial market personally. He works in academia or government all
his life. His main personal concern is to follow the rules of the
elite and not to offend those in power, or else he loses his job.
No wonder the smartest people in this country don't want to be the
president or the Fed chairman. They start hedge funds and make
billions, and then make a political statement with money.
We are now at an interesting time, indeed. Volatility will spike
sooner or later and those who bet against the greatest fools out
there will have a lot to do. Stay tuned.
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