巴菲特：现在买股比买债好
http://sc.stock.cnfol.com/090726/123,1455,6247693,00.shtml
　2009年07月26日 09:06　联合新闻网　纪乃良

　　尽避美股道·琼斯指数已经站上9,000点，股神巴菲特仍认为此刻进场投资股票比抱公债强，等到景气复苏再进场就迟了。

　　巴菲特24日接受CNBC电视网专访时表示，经济景气仍未回春，表现疲软无力，但这并不代表他对股市抱持悲观态度，相反的他预测股市会跑在景气复苏之前。

　　他说：“股市非常、非常有可能景气之前复苏翻升，但我不会试着计时，我只试着为股票估价。”

　　巴菲特重申他去年秋天的论调：不要等到景气复苏才买股票，他说：“如果等到看见知更鸟，春天已经退出了。”

　　而即使道琼已经站上9,000点，巴菲特仍表示他认为股票的表现会优于长期公债等现金投资，他说：“在道琼9,000点的时机上，我宁可持有股票，也比长期投资政府公债或持续投入短期金融市场强。”

　　不过他和先前一样，不愿预测股市未来几周或几月的走势。

　　此外，他认为，由于大量的振兴方案注入市场，未来有可能出现通膨，年后美元可能将大幅贬值。但他仍表示，纵使有后遗症，振兴方案仍有其必要，国家经济复苏才是当务之急。

　　巴菲特近来重振声威，去年金融风暴最严重时期投资高盛，当前光是股票权证部分，帐面上已赚进21亿美元，当时他也买了50亿美元的高盛优先股，每年可领5亿美元股利。但巴菲特表示，当前仍不打算行使认股权。

　　去年9月巴菲特的波克夏公司买进高盛的股票权证，在2013 年10月1日以前，都可用每股115美元的价格，买进高盛50亿美元的普通股股票，以高盛24日收盘价164.72美元计算，这些权证已赚进21亿美元。

　　但巴菲特表示：“我们会继续持有这些权证，我的每一分直觉都告诉我，我们会持有这些权证直到期限逼近为止。优先股付我们股利，权证替我们赚大钱。”


Warren Buffett to CNBC: Invest in Stocks Even At Dow 9000
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32122898
Published: Friday, 24 Jul 2009 | 8:36 AM ET
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By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

Warren Buffett tells CNBC the economy still isn't showing any signs of life but that doesn't mean investors should stay away from stocks for the long-term.

In a live interview on Squawk Box this morning, Buffett says "business is still flat."  But he stresses that doesn't mean he's negative on stocks, predicting the market will revive before the economy does.

"The market is very, very likely to turn up before business. But I don't try and time stocks. I try to price stocks."

He repeats his advice from his "Buy American" op-ed in The New York Times last fall: don't wait to buy stocks until the economy improves.  By then, he says, you will have missed the biggest stock gains.

Even with the Dow hitting highs for the year around 9000, Buffett repeats his belief that stocks will outperform cash investments, such as Treasury notes, over the long-term.  "I would much rather own equities at 9000 on the Dow than have a long investment in government bonds or a continuously rolling investment in short-term money."

As usual, he points out he is not making any predictions about what the stock market will do in the next coming weeks or months.


Buffett repeats his belief there are "real inflationary possibilities" down the road, due to the massive stimulus being applied to the struggling economy.  But he also repeats his view the stimulus is necessary despite the after-effects, because helping the economy recover should be the nation's top priority.

Buffett again endorses Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, saying "I don't think you could have anybody better than Bernanke in the job.  He understands all the issues."

Buffett's bearish comments today on the economy echo what he's been saying in recent weeks.  Earlier this month, Buffett told us consumer sales remained "very, very soft" and about a month ago he said in a live interview on CNBC that he was seeing no "green shoots" on the economy.

Buffett declines to comment on Berkshire Hathaway's recent move to sell about 17 percent of its stake in the credit-rating agency Moody's [MCO  Loading...      ()   ].

Buffett's live interview was designed to promote a new online animated series called Secret Millionaire's Club in which he voices a cartoon version of himself who helps teach kids about finance and investing.


CNBC TRANSCRIPT: Warren Buffett's 'Secret Millionaire's Club' Live Interview on Squawk Box
Published: Friday, 24 Jul 2009 | 12:28 PM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32123530/
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

Warren Bufftt: Full CNBC Transcript
Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning to promote a new online animated series called the Secret Millionaire's Club in which he teaches kids about finance and investing.

Buffett told us that stocks are still a better investment than cash investments, like Treasuries, even though the Dow has recently rallied to its highs of the year over 9000.

This is a transcript of the CNBC interview that got underway after Squawk showed a clip from the animated show in which Buffett talks to kids about the potential positives and negatives of investing in a fictional Ohama candy company.

BECKY QUICK:  Warren, thanks for joining us this morning.  We appreciate it.

BUFFETT:  It's my pleasure.

BECKY:  You know --

BUFFETT:  Have some candy. (Laughs.)

BECKY:  Have some candy.  That's something we hear from you often.  That's something we hear in the webisode, too.  But how did you get involved in these webisodes?

BUFFETT:  Well, I've got a friend, Andy Heyward that started producing cartoons for the Berkshire annual meeting ten years ago.  He did it just out of the goodness of his heart and did a terrific job.  We've become good friends and then a few years ago he did something called Liberty's Kids that was a cartoon, animated arrangement, that retaught history from around the time of the Revolutionary War.   And I was really impressed with the product.  It was - I found myself enjoying the episodes myself and an eight-year-old could enjoy them.  So he knows how to tell a story.  And he loves to do something beyond tell a story and amuse.  He really wants kids to come away smarter or with better habits.   So I love working with Andy.

BECKY:  What's your hope that kids will take away from these episodes?

BUFFETT:  Well, one way or another you develop financial habits when you're very young.  And the habits you develop live with you for the rest of your life.  So if we can get through to some young people that it's better to be a little bit ahead of the game than behind the game, watch out for credit cards.  The most important message is that the best investment you can make is in yourself.   Teaching them if something's too good to be true, it probably is, and so on.  If they learn those things the easy way through these stories early on, it may save them learning it the hard way later on.

BECKY:  The webisode we just watched was something to save the Omaha Candy Company.   What other sorts of episodes can we expect to see?   Have you done them yet?

BUFFETT:  No, we haven't done them yet.  Andy may be well along but I haven't done any of the work myself.  Andy is the guy who delivers the story lines but what we're really trying to do is get through, at least to some of that young audience, some messages that will help them later in life when they start facing choices as to whether they run up a big credit card bill.  Or like I said, the most important message you can deliver to a young person is that anything you invest in yourself, you get back ten-fold.  And nobody can tax it away, they can't steal it from you.  So we'll be trying to deliver those messages.  You have to do it with a good story.  They're not going to watch it to get a lecture.  They're going to watch it to get entertained, and in that entertainment we hope there can be a good message.

JOE KERNEN: Warren, I've always been told that there's huge money in voiceover work.  (Buffett laughs.)  And I'm just wondering, just wondering is that what drew you to this?  They don't have to show you, you see all these Hollywood types are in there, you see them in the room, they've got the big microphone with the muffler --

CARL QUINTANILLA:  Improvising.

JOE:  Improvising.  Was that it?  Big money in voiceover work that attracted you here?

BUFFETT:  Joe, you'll have to talk to my agent.  (Laughs.)  No, I'll tell you, obviously, I'm not getting paid for this.  There was a time when the market was, you know, hitting 66-hundred or so, that I thought maybe I'd renegotiate, but things have come back enough so that I'm doing this for nothing.  (Laughs.)  I'm open to ideas, though, Joe.

JOE: I was wondering, what is now a prescient piece in the Journal about buying American.  I was wondering --

BECKY:  Times.  New York Times.

JOE:  Was it in the New York Times?  OK.  I was wondering where the averages were at that point, because I think you're, now it looks prescient.  For a while it looked, but you said long-term, you didn't say this week or next month or whatever, but it's hard to short America long-term.

BUFFETT:  Yeah.  It was not designed to be a one-week or one-month market forecast.  But it was designed to tell people who were keeping their money in short-term investments where they thought cash was king, and all that sort of thing, that I really thought that if they were going to be investing over the longer term, equities were going to do way better than cash investments.  And if you held cash investments since that article, you've received virtually nothing.  And if you've held the index, you've done modestly better plus you've gotten a better yield.  But it wasn't - whether the market is up or down now does not make much difference.  But I would have been very surprised if five years from when I wrote that article that stocks hadn't vastly outperformed cash investments.

JOE:  Well, it happened pretty fast.  I think it was only about a month ago, was it during Berkshire's release?  I don't remember what it was, but you said this still is awful.  And across the board none of your businesses were, seemed to be improving at all.  Now the market's improved a lot.  Is it as bad as it was a month ago or are you seeing, I can't call them crocuses or green shoots, but has anything gotten any better in the past couple of weeks?

BUFFETT:  No, business is flat.  But I said in that article, I said if you wait until you see robins, spring will be over.  You can't wait for business to turn up and be very clear about the fact it's turned up.  You'll probably only figure it out three or four months later anway.  But the market is very, very likely to turn up before business.  But I don't try and time stocks.  I try to price stocks and stocks were a decent value when I wrote that article.  They got to be an indecent value some months later.  But it's a mistake - in fact, maybe we'll work it into an episode of the Secret Millionaire's Club, that people who think they can pick the market day-by-day are probably making a mistake.

JOE:  If you get laryngitis, Carl is available to do some voiceover work for you.  (Buffett laughs.)  I don't know if anyone can really -

CARL:  I'm going to try to teach kids how to write algorithms and CDOs.  How about that?

JOE:  That's an idea.  But in Mr. Buffett's voice.

BUFFETT:  We'll save you for a later session then, Carl.

BECKY:  Hey, Warren, you said that markets got to an indecent level.  I guess you were talking about back below 7000, but when you look at the Dow above 9000 now do you think that's a decent level?  Or is it less indecent, at least?

BUFFETT:  I would much rather own equities at 9000 on the Dow than have a long investment in government bonds or a continuously rolling investment in short-term money.  Now, again, I don't know where it's going to go next week or next month.

JOE:  Good answer.

BECKY:  But you still think equities is the place to be?

BUFFETT:  I would, you know, I own 'em myself.