加载中…《保险研究》2014年第2期目录及摘要
(2014-02-28 09:32:16)相关链接： 《保险研究》关注的研究方向(2014)
现金流视角下的保险公司偿付能力定义
王凯
（上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433）
［摘要］“偿付能力（solvency）”是保险经营中的重要概念，给出其科学、严谨的定义，是对保险公司偿付能力进行内部管理和外部监管的基础。本文通过对4个实际案例的对比分析，剖析了这一概念所包含的四个特征：不确定性、预测滞后性、导因复杂性和控制方法多样性。最后，我们从保险公司实际经营的视角重新定义了“偿付能力”的概念。
［关键词］偿付能力；保险监管；风险
Definition of the Insurance Company’s Solvency from the Cash Flow Perspective
Wang Kai，Xie Zhi-gang
(School of Finance of Shanghai University of Finance & Economics,Shanghai 200433)
Abstract：Solvency is an important concept in
insurance operation,whose scientific and precise definition is the
basis to internally manage and externally supervise the solvency of
the insurance company. This paper analysed its 4 features through
the comparative analysis on 4 cases:its uncertainty,the hysteresis
of its forecast,the complexity of its inducement and the variety of
its control method. In the end,the paper re-defined the concept of
solvency from the perspective of the actual operation of insurance
company.
Key words：solvency；insurance supervision；risk
谢志刚在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
我国保险业增长影响因素研究
洪梅1
(1.中央财经大学经济学院,北京 100081;2.北京航空航天大学法学院，北京 100083;3.中央财经大学统计学院，北京 100081)
［摘要］采用因子分析方法对我国1990～2012年保险业保费及相关数据进行研究，发现我国保险业增长主要取决于宏观经济与保险市场发展因素。保险业当前增长困境是相对落后的行业增长模式与不断变化着的外部市场环境之间的矛盾引起的，恢复增长动力的关键因素在于保险业能否抓住宏观层面蕴含的市场机遇，开展产品、渠道、运营创新，以创新驱动行业的新发展。
［关键词］保险增长；影响因素；因子分析；主成分回归
An Empirical Research on Factors Influencing the Growth of Chinese Insurance Industry
Hong Mei,Huang Hua-zhen,Jiao Jun-yong
(1. School of Economics of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;2. The Law School of BEIHANG University,Beijing 100083)
Abstract：Using the factor analysis method to
study the premium income data and other relevant statistics from
1990 to 2012,we found out that the growth of Chinese insurance
industry was mainly decided by China’s macro-economic situation and
insurance market factors. The current dilemma of growth lied with
the conflicts between the unsophisticated pattern of growth and the
changing macro-economic situation. The key to regain healthy growth
depended on whether the industry could grasp the opportunities
embedded in the current macro-economic
situation,and
Key words：growth of insurance industry;influencing
factors;factor analysis method
洪梅在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
黄华珍在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国财险业“融资效率悖论”及特征分析
粟芳
（上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433）
［摘要］为了分析向中国财险业投资的投资行为和投资动机的合理性，本文采用随机效应模型和分位数模型，以2007～2011年间在中国经营的33家财险公司为研究样本，测度了财险公司的融资能力与融资效率之间的关系。实证结果表明，投资于财险业的资金整体上是“逐利”的，不存在“融资效率悖论”。这一特征尤其在融资能力较低的财险公司中体现得更为明显。而且，投资者在制定有关财险公司的投资决策时，基本仅仅关注目标公司当期的融资效率，而不考虑历史业绩。进一步对不同的融资渠道分析，财险公司通过内部融资渠道所获取的资金是显著“逐利”的，不存在“融资效率悖论”；而以债务和权益形式投向财险公司的资金则存在明显的“融资效率悖论”。这说明财险公司的外部投资者没有正确选择优秀的投资对象。根据资本属性来分析，投资于财险业的外资具有更强的“逐利性”，能更为准确地选择值得投资的财险公司；而中资由于受制于信息不对称、抢占金融资源优势及“羊群效应”等原因，存在着明显的“融资效率悖论”。
［关键词］资金逐利性；融资效率悖论；财险业
Analysis of the Features of “Financing Efficiency Paradox”for Non-life Insurance Companies in China
Su Fang,Chu Li-ping
（Financing School,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics，Shanghai 200433)
Abstract：In order to analyze investment
activities and justify their investment purposes towards non-life
insurance companies in China,the paper measured the relationship
between financing capability and financing efficiency of 33
non-life insurers during the period of 2007 to 2011 through the
random effects model and panel data quantile regression.The result
shows that investments into non-life insurance businesses are
mostly “profit-driven”,and the notion of “Financing Efficiency
Paradox”isn’t true.This is especially the case for those companies
with low financing capability.Moreover,when investors make
investment decision to non-life insurance company,they mostly only
consider its current financing efficiency,instead of taking into
account their historical performances comprehensively.Further
studies on capitals from different channels shows that non-life
insurer’s capital from internal financing channels is
profit-driven.While,there are “Financial Efficiency Paradox” for
debt and equity investments into non-life insurance companies,which
means these debt and equity investors fails to locate excellent
investment targets.Further study on nature of capital indicates
that foreign capital is more profit-driven than Chinese
capital,demonstrating that foreign investor can pick up non-life
insurers worthy of investment more accurately,while there exists
the “Financial Efficiency Paradox” with Chinese investors due to
their information asymmetry,eagerness to grasp financial resources
and succumbing to the herd effect.
Key words：profit-driven;Financing
EfficiencyParadox;non-life insurance
粟芳在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
初立苹在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
发展巨灾保险的紧迫性与路径依赖
林毓铭1
(1.暨南大学应急管理学院，广东 广州 510632;2.平安科技（深圳）有限公司，广东 深圳 518029)
［摘要］近几年来，全球自然灾害造成的危害特别严重，巨灾保险引起了世界各国的高度重视。中国巨灾保险发展较为落后，中共“十八大”报告要求加快建立符合我国国情的巨灾保险制度，利用保险机制预防和分散灾害风险并提供灾后损失补偿，亟需加速与完善建立一系列政策保障、制度保障与技术保障工作，促进受灾地区灾后恢复与重建工作顺利进行。
［关键词］巨灾保险；举国体制；路径选择；风险预防
The Urgency for Developping Catastrophe Insurance and Path Dependence
lin Yu-ming,Lin Bo
(1.School of Emergency Management,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632;2.PingAn Technology (Shenzhen) Co.,LTD.Shenzhen 518029)
Abstract：In recent years,with the damage of
global natural disasters keeps escalating,catastrophe insurance has
drawn greater attention from all countries all over the
world.Catastrophe insurance development relatively lags behind in
China.And the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
requests to speed up the establishment of catastrophe insurance
system conforming to China’s national conditions,and use the
insurance mechanism to prevent and disperse disaster risks and
provide with post-disaster damage compensation.For achieving these
targets,we need to establish and improve on a series of policy
supports,institutional supports and technical supports,promote
post-disaster restoration and reconstruction work of
disaster-stricken areas.
Key words：catastrophe insurance;nationwide
system;path choice;risk prevention
完善我国农业保险制度需要解决的几个重要问题
庹国柱
（首都经济贸易大学，北京 100070 ）
［摘要］我国农业保险在中央政策引导和《农业保险条例》的规范下，正在空前蓬勃发展。自2008年以来保费收入规模已跃居全球第二。在这种良好发展形势下，也存在一些需要解决的重要问题。本文针对上述问题提出了一些解决思路和具体建议：必须坚持已经确立的农业保险制度；中央要指导各省制定或完善农业保险经营模式；加速建立中央和省两级农业保险大灾风险分散制度；继续加大财政政策的支持力度；尽早建立农业保险费率精算制度及合理调节机制努力探索农业保险市场的竞争与合作机制；扎扎实实抓好经营主体依法合规经营以及必须全方位加强对农业保险的监管。
［关键词］农业保险；制度建设；政策
Several Issues to be Solved for Improving on the Agricultural Insurance System in China
Tuo Guo-zhu，Zhu Jun-sheng
(Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070)
Abstract：Under the guidance of the central
government policy and “Agricultural Insurance Regulation”,China’s
agricultural insurance business is witnessing exponential
development. Its premium income has ranked at the second place in
the world since 2008. However,there remain some problems to be
solved notwithstanding this promising prospect. The paper offered
some thoughts and specific suggestions for solving these
problems:we must adhere to the established agricultural insurance
system;each provinces should establish their own agricultural
insurance models under the direction of the central
government;establish a central government-level and a
provincial-level agricultural insurance catastrophe dispersion
systems;further increase fiscal support;establish agricultural
insurance actuarial system for premium rating as soon as possible
and explore the market cooperation and competition mechanism;ensure
all entities to operate according to relevant rules and regulations
and strengthen all-round supervision on agricultural
insurance.
Key words：agricultural insurance;institutional
construction;policy
庹国柱在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
让科学研究更好地服务于农业保险制度建设——中国农业保险32年研究历程简述
朱俊生在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
中国天气指数保险试点的运行及其评估——以安徽省水稻干旱和高温热害指数保险为例
保险费率市场化的时机已经成熟——与《近期内不宜实行保险费率市场化》一文的商榷
基于CVM的我国农业气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以浙江柑橘种植户为例
宋博1
（1.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;3.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081;4.中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京 100193;5.慧聪书院，北京 100083）
［摘要］支付意愿反映的保险需求关系到保险的发展。首先以基于二分选择式条件估值法(CVM)获取的浙江省衢州市柑橘种植户调查数据为例，对农户购买农业气象指数保险的平均支付意愿(WTP)进行了测算，得出农户平均支付意愿为78.21元/亩，远低于理论厘定的保费。然后，运用Logit模型对农户购买气象指数保险支付意愿的影响因素进行实证分析，结果显示价格水平、气象站距离、住房估价和贷款额与农户购买气象指数保险的支付意愿显著负相关，而柑橘收入比重和农户对农业保险的认可度与农户购买气象指数保险的支付意愿显著正相关。最后，根据研究结论得到了几点有利于解决农业气象指数保险需求不足的启示。
［关键词］气象指数保险；支付意愿（WTP）；条件估值法（CVM）；logit模型
Analysis on Willingness to Pay for Agricultural Weather Index Insurance in China Based on CVM:A Case Study on Citrus Growers in Zhejiang Province
Song Bo1,Mu Yue-ying1,Hou Ling-ling2,Zhao Liang3,Chen Fu4,Zuo Fei-long5
(1. College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083;2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101;3. Agricultural Information of CAAS,Beijing 100081;4. College of Agriculture and Biotechnology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083;5. HuiCong Academy,Beijing 100871)
Abstract：The insurance demand which is
indicated by the willingness to pay affects the development of
insurance. Firstly,with survey data obtained from the citrus
growers in Quzhou city,Zhejiang province based on the contingent
valuation method (CVM) in the form of two choices type,the paper
estimated the rural households’ average willingness to pay (WTP)
for the agricultural weather index insurance. The findings showed
that the rural households’ average WTP was only 1173.15 RMB per
hectare,far less than the theoretical premiums. Then it used the
Model Logit to empirically analyze on the factors affecting rural
households’ WTP for weather index insurance. The results showed
that there was a significant negative correlation between farmer’s
WTP and factors such as price level,distance to weather
station,housing valuation and loan amount.
Key words：weather index insurance;willingness to
pay (WTP);contingent valuation method (CVM);model Logit
江苏省县域农村商业养老保险发展潜力评价
周建再1，2
（1.武汉大学经管学院,湖北 武汉 430072；2.江苏大学财经学院，江苏 镇江 212013；3.泰康人寿江苏分公司,江苏 南京 210000）
［摘要］基于江苏省县域农村经济发展数据，采用因子分析和聚类分析方法对该省49个县的农村商业养老保险发展总体潜力进行了评价和分类：一是影响农村商业养老保险的发展因素归为农村自然条件、社会经济发展、农村居民生活条件等三个主因子；二是通过计算综合因子得分，可对江苏省49个县（县级市）商业养老险的发展潜力排序；三是对各个县（县级市）的因子得分进行加权调整后，通过系统聚类方法，可以把江苏省下辖县按其指标相似性分为四类地区。针对不同类别地区，保险经营机构应采用有差别的分层经营策略以推动江苏省县域商业养老保险的有序发展。
［关键词］江苏县域农村；商业养老保险；因子分析；系统聚类
The Evaluation on the County Rural Commercial Pension Insurance Development in Jiangsu
Zhou Jian-zai1,2,Dai Bao-zhen2,Xue Ji-hao3
(1.E&M School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072；2. Finance and Economics School of Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212001；3.Taikang Life Jiangsu Branch,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210000)
Abstract：Based on the economic statistics of
the county and by adopting the method of factor analysis and
cluster analysis,the paper classified 49 counties of Jiangsu
province into different categories according to their rural
commercial pension insurance development potential. Firstly,factors
affecting rural commercial pension insurance development included
rural natural conditions,social and economic development and rural
living conditions. Secondly,by calculating the comprehensive factor
score,the potential of the counties was ranked. Thirdly,the factor
score of each county was weighted and adjusted,then the 49 counties
were divided into 4 categories using the hierarchical clustering
method. To different categories,insurance companies should apply
differentiated management strategy to promote the orderly
development of commercial pension insurance in counties of
Jiangsu.
Key words：county-level rural market in
Jiangsu；commercial pension insurance；factor analysis；hierarchical
clustering
周建再在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
代宝珍在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
小额贷款保证保险在缓解小微企业融资难中的作用——基于银、企、保三方的博弈分析
李文中
(首都经济贸易大学保险系，北京 100026)
［摘要］当前，我国小微企业融资难问题非常突出，政府相关部门多次倡导利用小额贷款保证保险来缓解小微企业融资难。从保证保险的发展历史和我国实际来看，在我国贷款保证保险和保证担保并不完全相同。基于博弈分析可知，通过改进外部条件和进行机制设计能够有效地治理小额贷款保证保险面临的逆向选择和道德风险，使小额贷款保证保险在缓解小微企业贷款难问题上能够比保证担保更好地发挥作用，并且特别需要政府的政策扶持。
［关键词］小额贷款保证保险；小微企业贷款；合作博弈；逆向选择；道德风险
The Role of Microfinance Guarantee Insurance for Alleviating the Financing Difficulty of Micro-to-Small Enterprises—An Analysis Based on the Game among the Bank,Enterprise,and Insurer
Li Wen-zhong
(The Insurance School of Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100026)
Abstract：At present,Micro-to-Small Enterprises
(SMEs) in China are facing with a grave problem of financing
difficulty.Government departments have advocated repeatedly that
Microfinance Guarantee Insurance (MGI)should be developed to help
solve this problem.According to the history and reality of
guarantee insurance,the loan guarantee insurance and guarantee are
not exactly the same.Based on the game theory,the adverse selection
and moral risk of banks and SMEs on MGI can be alleviated by
optimizing the external conditions and mechanism
design.Moreover,MGI can better play the role in relieving the
financing difficulty of SMEs than guarantee.Among these
measures,government’s policy supports are especially
important.
Key words：Microfinance Guarantee
Insurance;Micro-to-Small enterprise loan;cooperative game;adverse
selection;moral risk
李文中在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
医疗保险理赔中的代位追偿问题研究—兼评《保险法》和《社会保险法》相关条款
CFR贸易方式下的保险利益——从天安保险公司拒赔“萨那加”轮木材损失案谈起
医疗责任险费率影响因素及其程度的实证分析——以某市医疗责任险的经营情况为例
上市公司独立董事治理与薪酬契约的比较研究——基于社会网络分析视角
梁婷
（西南财经大学会计学院，四川 成都 611130）
［摘要］本文首先从高管薪酬业绩敏感性、薪酬粘性的角度，考察了上市保险公司的薪酬契约机制。其次运用社会网络分析方法，比较检验了独立董事网络位置与上市保险公司、上市非保险公司薪酬契约的相互关系。结果显示：我国上市保险公司已经基本确立了与业绩挂钩的薪酬考核机制，但目前同时存在比较明显的薪酬粘性特征；不论是上市保险公司还是上市非保险公司，其独立董事均能在一定程度上对薪酬契约发挥治理作用。本研究丰富了保险公司“网络和治理”尤其是治理机制和薪酬契约的实证研究文献。关于上市保险公司和上市非保险公司的比较检验，对完善上市保险公司独立董事治理和薪酬契约机制提供了有价值的思路和启示。
［关键词］保险公司；独立董事；社会网络分析；薪酬契约
A Comparative Study on Independent Directors’ Governance and Executive Compensation Contracts:A Social Network Analysis Perspective
Liang Ting,Xia Chang-yuan
(School of Accounting,South Western University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130)
Abstract：We explored the compensation
contracting mechanisms of Chinese listed insurance companies from
the perspectives of executive compensation sensitivity and
stickiness. Then,we used social network analysis methods to
empirically testing the relationship between independent directors’
network location and executive compensation. The findings showed
that Chinese listed insurance companies had established
performance-linked executive compensation mechanisms,but there
still existed quite obvious executive compensation stickiness.
Independent directors could have some governance effects on
executive compensation mechanisms no matter for listed insurers or
unlisted insurers. This paper enriched the research literature on
insurance company’s “network and governance”,especially on the
governance mechanism and compensation. The comparative study on
listed insurance company and listed non-insurance company could
offer some useful thoughts for perfecting the independent director
governance and executive compensation mechanism.
Key words：insurance companies;independent
directors;social network analysis;executive compensation
contracts
公共养老金个人账户制度研究：理性审视与未来指向
郭林
（中国人民大学中国社会保障研究中心、中国人民大学书报资料中心，北京100872）
［摘要］国内外学者对公共养老金个人账户制度的研究已经取得了比较丰硕的成果，这主要集中于公共养老金个人账户制度和制度外变量的关系、国际视野下公共养老金个人账户制度的特征和完善与中国公共养老金个人账户的模式选择和制度优化等三个方面。应理性审视对公共养老金个人账户制度研究的已有文献，特别是客观看待中国“个人账户空账”、“养老金缺口”以及“名义账户制度与基金投资”之间关系等问题。公共养老金个人账户制度研究的未来指向是：基于多学科思维，从多要素出发，立足于整个社会经济大系统，作理性科研，逐渐形成“社会保障学科气派”。
［关键词］公共养老金；基金个人账户制；名义账户制
Research on the Public Pension Individual Account: A Rational Review and Future Direction
Guo Lin
(China’s Social Security Research Center,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872; Information Center for Social Sciences,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
Abstract：The research on the individual account
under the public pension system has been very fruitful both within
and without China. These researches mainly focus on the
relationship between the individual account system and external
variables,the features and improvement of public pension system’s
individual account from the international perspective,and model
choice and optimization of individual account system in China. We
should have a rational approach towards existing researches and
regard the viewpoints of “unfunded individual account”,“pension
fund gap” and the relationship between Non-financial Defined
Contribution Scheme and investment of pension fund objectively. The
future direction of the research on individual account system will
be based on the socio-economic mega-system and a multi-disciplinary
and rational thinking with consideration of multiple factors,and
gradually create a “Social Security Discipline”.
Key words：public pension;funded individual account
system;Non-financial Defined Contribution Scheme
郭林在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
基于整体法的新农保个人账户基金收支平衡模拟与预测
薛惠元
（武汉大学社会保障研究中心，湖北 武汉 430072）
［摘要］依据现行政策，运用整体法，通过构建基金收支平衡精算模型，对2010～2054年中国新农保个人账户基金收支情况进行模拟和预测。结果表明，从短期来看（仅考虑当年基金的正常收支），2010~2054年间新农保个人账户基金收支均有盈余；从长期来看（考虑当年基金的正常收支、退保、转保、个人账户余额返还等因素），新农保个人账户基金收支差额在2010~2048年间为盈余，从2049年起出现缺口，但2010~2054年间新农保个人账户基金积累额呈现出直线增长趋势。为了实现新农保个人账户基金的收支平衡，建议设立新农保社会统筹基金，专门用于弥补基金收支缺口；适时推行新农保个人账户基金给付的年金化改革等。
［关键词］新农保；个人账户；基金收支平衡；模拟与预测；整体法
Simulation and Prediction of the Fund Equilibrium of New
Rural Social
Xue Hui-yuan
(Center for Social Security Studies of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072)
Abstract：This paper made a fund equilibrium
simulation and prediction of the new rural social old-age
insurance’s personal accounts in 2010-2054 from an overall aspect
by building a fund balance actuarial model in line with the current
policies. The result showed that,in the short term (considering
only the fund’s normal balance of payments in the year),there was
always a personal account surplus in 2010-2054;in the long run
(when considering such factors as the fund’s normal balance of
payments,subscription quitting,plan transferring,and personal
account balance refund),there was personal account surplus in
2010-2048,but a fund shortfall appeared from the year 2049,but the
accumulated fund showed a linear growth trend throughout 2010 to
2054. In order to achieve the fund equilibrium,the paper proposed
to establish a social pooling fund for the new rural social old-age
insurance to make up for the fund shortfall;and implement the
annuitization reform of personal account benefit payment in the due
course.
Key words：new rural social old-age
insurance;personal accounts;fund equilibrium;simulation and
prediction;overall aspect
薛惠元在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
农户视角下的新农保政策效果及其影响因素分析——基于湖北省605份问卷的调查分析
现收现付制与基金制的养老保险制度成本比较——基于养老保险收支平衡数理模型
“新农保”个人账户养老金计发系数研究
海龙
（东北财经大学公共管理学院，辽宁 大连 116025）
［摘要］个人账户养老金计发系数是新农保制度设计的关键环节，事关所有参保对象的养老权益。然而，目前新农保简单照搬城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户养老金计发系数的做法并不合理。基于个人账户财务收支平衡测算模型，在测度新农保个人账户养老金计发系数的基础上，提出优化现行新农保个人账户养老金计发系数的策略，即设置城乡分异与性别差异的个人账户养老金计发系数，建立个人账户养老金计发标准的动态调整机制和完善新农保个人账户基金管理和投资运营方式。
［关键词］个人账户；计发系数；预期寿命；新农保
Research on Individual Account Pension Divisor Coefficient of New Rural Social Pension Sheme
Hai Long
(Public Administration School of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Liaoning Dalian 116025)
Abstract：The individual account divisor
coefficient is the key variable of New Rural Pension
Schemes（NPRS）and is related to the insured person’s pension
rights.However,the current NPRS simply copies the individual
account divisor coefficient of Urban Basic Old-Age insurance,which
is not very reasonable.Using the actuarial balance principle of
individual account,the paper calculated the individual account
divisor coefficient of NPRS.And on this basis,it proposed some
suggestions on optimizing the existing individual account divisor
coefficient of NPRS:the individual account divisor coefficients
should reflect the urban and rural differences and the male and
female differences;a dynamic adjustment mechanism should be
established for the individual account divisor coefficient of
NPRS;fund management and investment operations of NPRS should be
enhanced.
Key words：individual account；divisor
coefficient；life expectancy；New Rural Pension Scheme
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