加载中…《保险研究》2013年第11期目录及摘要
(2013-12-02 09:35:22)相关链接：《保险研究》2013年第10期目录及摘要
农业巨灾保险合作的联盟博弈与模式选择
陈利
（1.重庆工商大学，重庆 400067；2.西南大学，重庆 400715）
［摘要］在高度分散的小农经济基础上构建保险机制，加大了农业巨灾保险的交易成本与运行风险。本文引入农业合作经济组织，构建包括政府、保险公司、合作组织和农户在内的保险主体参与的合作机制，运用Shapley
value法分析了农业巨灾保险主体的联盟博弈。研究发现：引进农业巨灾保险专业合作服务组织参与运营农业巨灾保险，可有效提高保险的合作收益和稳定性。
［关键词］农业巨灾保险；联盟博弈；夏普里值；合作组织
Coalition Game and Mode Selection for Agricultural Catastrophe Insurance Cooperation
Chen Li,Xie Jia-zhi
(1.Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067;2.Southwest University,Chongqing 400715)
Abstract： Establishing an insurance mechanism
on the basis of the highly dispersive smallholder economy increases
agricultural catastrophe insurance transaction costs and operation
risks.This paper introduced the construction of an agricultural
cooperation economic organization,in which relevant parties such as
government,insurance company,cooperative organizations and farmers
form a cooperative mechanism.Then it used the Shapley value method
for the analysis of coalitional gaming in relation to agricultural
catastrophe insurance.The paper reached the conclusion that the
introduction of professional agricultural catastrophe insurance
service organization in the operation of agricultural catastrophe
insurance could effectively improve the insurance cooperation
benefits and stability.
Key words：agricultural catastrophe
insurance;coalitional game;Shapley value;cooperation
organization
陈利在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
谢家智在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
家庭保险资产持有影响因素分析
黄毓慧1
（1.西南交通大学经济管理学院，四川 成都 610002；2.清华大学经济管理学院，北京 100084）
［摘要］长期以来，我国保险学界的文献偏重宏观，忽视微观，因而文章尝试分析微观中国家庭持有保险资产的影响因素，并重点关注了风险态度和家庭特征。由于保险经济学理论分析的核心——风险态度，在实证分析中往往被忽略，文章借助实验经济学的思维，用假设证券估值来测度微观个体的风险态度，并将之运用在对居民家庭保险资产持有影响因素的分析上。文章采用全国4
066个微观家庭的大样本调研数据，从实证角度验证了风险厌恶程度越高的家庭持有保险资产的意愿更强和数量更多。具体到家庭特征对保险资产持有的影响，家庭收入、自有住房、遗赠意愿都对家庭保险资产持有有正向影响，而流动性限制的存在也将降低家庭持有保险资产的额度。
［关键词］保险资产；保险需求；风险态度
Analysis of Factors Affecting Household Insurance Demands
Huang Yu-hui1，Deng Ying-lu2
(1.School of Economics and Management，Southwest Jiaotong University，Chendu，Sichuan 610002;2.Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management，Beijing 100084)
Abstract：The previous literature on the
insurance sector emphasizes the macro perspective，not the micro
perspective.This paper analyzed micro factors that influenced
household’s insurance demands，specifically their risk attitude and
the family characteristics.Risk attitude，which is at the core of
insurance economic researches，is often neglected in empirical
studies.Following the thinking of experimental economics，the paper
used assumed securities valuation to measure risk attitude of micro
individuals，and applied the result to the study on factors
affection household insurance demands.The empirical research
employed the data of a comprehensive survey of 4066 household in
China.And it arrived at the conclusion that the family with low
risk tolerance held more insurance products.Other family
characteristics such as family income，apartment ownership，legacy
attitude all had positive effects on holding insurance assets.But
liquidity constraint tended to reduce insurance holdings by
households.
Key
words：insurance
邓颖璐在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
承保能力最大化条件下我国巨灾保险基金规模测算
田玲
［摘要］通常有两种方式建立巨灾保险基金，一种方式是为每一种巨灾风险建立单独基金，另一种方式是为所有的巨灾风险建立一个联合基金。本文在构建巨灾保险基金规模函数的基础上，从理论上比较了两种方式的基金规模，通过理论推导发现巨灾保险基金规模随着风险容忍度的降低而增加，在风险容忍度相同时，联合巨灾保险基金的规模不大于分别建立巨灾保险基金的规模之和。本文选取地震和洪水这两种巨灾风险进行实证研究，通过实证发现，对于我国财产保险业而言，在巨灾保险基金成立初期，巨灾承保比例为40%时对应的巨灾保险基金规模为289.22亿元。
［关键词］巨灾风险；巨灾保险基金；财产保险业承保能力
Calculation of the Size of the Catastrophe Insurance Fund with the Maximum Underwriting Capacity
Tian Ling,Peng Jing-yi,Wang Zheng-wen
(Economics and Management School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072)
Abstract：In practice,there are two methods to
build a Catastrophe Insurance Fund,one of which is to build a joint
fund,and the other one is to build an independent fund for every
catastrophic risk.On the basis of the function of the Catastrophe
Insurance Fund size,this paper compared the sizes of the
Catastrophe Insurance Funds for the above two cases.By the
deduction,this paper found that the size of the Catastrophe
Insurance Fund would increase when the risk tolerance level
decreased,and for the same risk tolerance level,the size of joint
fund was not bigger than the sum of independent funds.At last,this
paper chose the earthquake risk and the flood risk as two
catastrophic risks to calculate the size of the Catastrophe
Insurance Funds,and found that,for China’s property & casualty
insurance industry,the best catastrophic coverage ratio was 40%
with a corresponding fund size of RMB 28,922 million at the initial
stage of the fund.
Key words：catastrophic risk;Catastrophe Insurance
Fund;capacity of property and liability insurance
田玲在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
王正文在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
我国财产保险公司资本与风险关系研究——兼论偿付能力监管制度的影响
赵桂芹
（1.上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433;2.深圳大学经济学院，广东 深圳 518060）
［摘要］偿付能力监管的理论依据无疑是资本和风险之间的自然联系。本文采用我国财产险公司2003～2011年的数据，运用三阶段最小二乘法（3SLS），考察我国财产险公司的资本和风险之间是否存在显著的双向影响。研究发现，财产险公司资本比例与承保风险无显著相关关系，资本比例和投资风险之间存在显著的负向相关关系，这说明风险和资本比例之间还没有形成良好的互动关系，使得资本变化不能适时反映风险变化，实施偿付能力监管制度所期望的“风险-资本”互动机制尚未形成。我们还发现，偿付能力充足率对承保风险和投资风险均具有显著正向影响，说明偿付能力水平越高的公司倾向于追求更大的风险承担水平，会增加风险性资产的投资或者风险较高业务的承保。最后对我国保险业第二代偿付能力监管制度体系建设提出了相关建议。
［关键词］资本比例；风险；偿付能力监管
An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Capital Structure and Risks for Property & Casualty Insurers－With an additional discussion on the effects of solvency regulation sSystem
Zhao Guiqin1,Wu Hong2
（1.School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433;2.Business School,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060）
Abstract：The theoretical basis of solvency
regulation lies with the natural relationship between capital and
risk.Using the data of property & casualty insurers from year
2003 to year 2011,this paper examined whether capital and risk had
significant dual effects for non-life insurers through the method
of three stage least squares (3SLS).The empirical results showed
that there was no significant correlation between capital ratio and
underwriting risks,but there was significant negative relationship
between capital ratio and investment risk.This indicates that there
is no dual positive interaction between capital structure and
risk,the change of capital structure cannot reflect the change in
risk profiles timely,and the current solvency regulatory system
does not achieve the expected result of “capital-risk
interaction”.We also found that solvency adequacy ratio had a
significant positive impact on underwriting risk and investment
risk,indicating that nonlife insurers having a higher solvency
level tended to pursue greater risk exposure,and they might invest
into more risky assets or underwrite more risky businesses. Based
on these conclusions,this paper proposed some suggestions on China
Risk- oriented Solvency System for insurers.
Key words：capital ratio;risk;solvency
regulation
赵桂芹在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
保险体系的系统风险相关性评价：一个国际视角
保险业区域发展差异的演变及解释——基于shapley值的分解方法
我国寿险公司效率评价及其影响因素分析——基于修正的两阶段数据包络分析方法
吴洪在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
保险业区域发展差异的演变及解释——基于shapley值的分解方法
我国非寿险业承保周期研究
财险公司赔款与直接理赔费用的相关性分析
张连增
（南开大学经济学院，天津 300071）
［摘要］本文首先对财险公司实际理赔数据进行分布拟合分析。通过三种拟合优度准则的比较，发现Burr分布比Pareto分布能更好地拟合赔款和直接理赔费用。其次，为了刻画赔款和直接理赔费用之间的相依关系，我们通过对常见的五类Copula函数进行参数估计，并比较赤迟信息准则（AIC）的大小，发现Gumbel
Copula比其他常见的四类Copula函数更适合。最后，作为本文研究的应用实例，本文使用R软件的随机模拟函数，计算出一种特殊的再保险保费以及风险价值和尾部风险价值。
［关键词］Burr分布；Gumbel Copula；再保险保费；风险价值；尾部风险价值
The Relevance between Losses and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses for Nonlife Insurers
Zhang Lian-zeng
(School of Economics Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)
Abstract：In this paper,we firstly conducted a
distribution fitting analysis on actual loss data of a non-life
insurance company.By comparing three criteria for goodness of
fitting,we found that the Burr distributions were better than the
Pareto distributions to fit the loss distribution functions of
indemnity payment and allocated loss adjustment
expense.Secondly,under the Akaike information criterion,we
concluded that the best Copula function in commonly used five
families was Gumbel Copula which could perfectly characterize the
dependent relationship of indemnity payment and allocated loss
adjustment expense.Based on these findings,we further calculated
the reinsurance premium,value at risk and tail value at risk by
stochastic simulation method with R software.
Key words：Burr distribution;Gumbel
Copula;reinsurance premium;value at risk;tail value at risk
张连增在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
我国财产保险区域差异与宏观经济的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析
行驶里程数对车险净保费的影响研究——基于公路里程对交通事故损失的影响视角
中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析
中国人身保险市场效率测算——基于随机前沿分析的实证研究
高俊1
（1.清华大学经济管理学院，北京 100083
［摘要］从人身保险市场传统评估指标测算基准的局限性出发，以人身保险需求为测算基准来定义人身保险市场效率，并在充分考虑中国各地区间人身保险需求结构异质性的基础上，基于2000～2011年中国30个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据，应用随机前沿模型测算了样本地区的人身保险市场效率。研究发现：（1）中国人身保险存在着异质性的需求结构；（2）从整体上看，中国人身保险市场效率呈螺旋式提高且在省际间有不断收敛的趋势；（3）中国六大区域人身保险的市场效率差距并不大，且市场效率并不随着经济发展水平的提高而提高；（4）基于市场效率的人身保险市场地区排名与传统指标（包括保费收入、保险密度及保险深度）排名有较大的差异。
［关键词］市场效率；人身保险需求；随机前沿分析
A Measurement of China''''''''''''''''s Life Insurance Market Efficiency—A Stochastic Frontier Approach
Gao Jun1,Chen Bing-zheng1,Xing Hong-yang2
（1.Tinghua University School of Economics and Management,Beijing 100083;2.Economics and Management School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430081)
Key words：market efficiency;demand of life
insurance;Stochastic Frontier approach
高俊在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
陈秉正在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
邢宏洋在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
核查成本与防范保险共谋欺诈风险的博弈选择
黄炜
（武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072）
［摘要］随着商业保险公司大量涌入保险市场，保险合同纠纷和保险欺诈问题日益增多，严重扰乱了保险市场。本文基于最优核查成本的角度，对保险中的两种保险共谋欺诈现象进行了分析，构建博弈论的分析框架系统研究了保险共谋欺诈情形下的内在利益之争，并进一步提出防范保险共谋欺诈的相关建议。本文研究发现，追究保险共谋欺诈的法律责任是一种对保险违法行为的事后处理，而防范保险共谋欺诈的对策研究，则是一种事前的防范，两者相辅相成，不可偏废。
［关键词］商业保险；保险共谋欺诈；核查成本
The Game Selection between Check-up Cost and Collusive Insurance Fraud Risks
Huang Wei,Shan Jiao,Dai Juan
(Economics and Management School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072)
Abstract：With an influx of commercial insurance
companies into the insurance
Key words：commercial insurance;collusive insurance
fraud;check-up cost
我国保险公司跨境经营问题研究
郝臣1，2
（1.南开大学中国公司治理研究院，天津 300071；2.南开大学商学院，天津 300071）
［摘要］随着我国对外开放程度的进一步加深，越来越多的保险公司选择走出去，实现跨境经营，以提高公司竞争力。本文分析了我国保险公司跨境经营的现状与环境，认为政策环境是我国保险公司跨境经营的重要驱动因素，同时保险公司通过跨境经营学习先进技术、经验，进而占领国际市场，也是重要的原因所在。本文总结了我国保险公司跨境经营的主要方式，对比分析了自身扩张、并购和合作三种主要方式，现阶段自身扩张是我国保险公司跨境经营的主要方式。研究认为我国保险公司跨境经营是我国保险业未来发展的必然选择，然而目前我国保险公司产品市场国际化程度还明显不足，需要特别注意的是我国保险公司跨境经营过程中的因制度环境落差所导致的法律监管与政治风险、投资决策科学性、跨境经营本土化和人才培养等问题。
［关键词］保险公司；跨境经营；动因；方式；本土化
Research on Insurance Companies’ Cross-border
Operation
Hao Chen1,2, Li Fei2,Wang Xu2
(1.Corporate Governance Research Center of Nankai University,China 300071;2.Business School of Nankai University,China 300071)
Abstract：As China’s opening-up is further
deepened,more and more insurance companies have chosen to operate
cross-border to improve their competitiveness.We analyzed the
current situation and environment for Chinese insurance companies
to operate across borders,and concluded that the policy environment
was an important driving factor for doing so.At the same
time,overseas operation could help Chinese insurers to learn
advanced technology and experiences and established a foothold in
the international market.Then,we comparatively analyzed the three
ways of Chinese insurance companies’ cross-border operations: self
expansion,merger and acquisitions and partnerships,among which
expansion was the main form of cross-border operations
currently.The paper argued that cross-border operation was an
inevitable choice of Chinese insurance industry for its future
development.However,the level of internationalization for Chinese
insurance products was insufficient.And we should also especially
pay attention to the regulatory and political risks caused by the
institutional environment
Key words：insurance companies;cross-border
operations;motivation;method;localization
郝臣在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
王旭在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
商业健康保险的经营目标和赢利模式
交强险基本模式问题探析——从最高法院司法解释和国务院行政法规的对抗谈起
刘锐
（国家行政学院法学部，北京 100089）
［摘要］2012年最高人民法院以司法解释的形式规定了保险公司对于醉驾等情形事故受害人的赔偿责任，从而造成了与《交强险条例》垫付责任规定的直接对立。而在司法解释和行政法规对抗的背后，是《道路交通安全法》、《侵权责任法》和《交强险条例》关于交强险模式定位的混乱。中国目前不具备实行无过失保险或混合保险的基本条件，应当采行强制责任保险模式。
［关键词］机动车；强制；无过失保险；责任保险
Discussion on Problems Related to the Basic Model of the
Chinese Motor Vehicle Compulsory Insurance
Liu Rui
(Chinese Academy of Governance，Beijing 100089)
Abstract：The provisions of insurance company
compensation liability for drunk driving and other accident
victims,which stipulated by the Interpretation of the Supreme
People''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''s Court on Several Issues
Concerning the Application of Law in the Trial of Cases on
Compensation for Damage in Road Traffic Accidents (2012),are very
different from the related provisions of Regulation on Compulsory
Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles.The
fundamental reason of conflict between the judicial interpretation
and administrative regulations is the confused provisions of Road
Traffic Safety Law,Tort Law and the Regulation on Compulsory
Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles on the
relation of compulsory insurance and tort liability.China should
adopt the compulsory liability insurance,other than the no-fault
insurance or mixed insurance.
Key words：motor vehicle;compulsory;no-fault
insurance;liability insurance
刘锐在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
团体重大疾病保险风险调研报告——以东莞两镇村民险为样本
江恭伟
（中国人寿保险股份有限公司广东省分公司，广东 广州 510145）
［摘要］团体重大疾病保险是团体保险市场主要产品之一，发病率、索赔病种分布决定其风险，但目前国内几乎未见使用真实商业团体保险经营数据作为样本的公开研究。本文通过对东莞市横沥、麻涌两镇于2008年在中国人寿投保团体重大疾病保险的实际数据研究，分析了不同性别、年龄的发病率及索赔病种的分布情况，并对造成两镇重疾险发病率的差异的原因进行了探讨。分析结果可用于团体重大疾病保险的风险评估、精算定价、产品开发，并对评估环境因素对重大疾病的发病率影响具有一定的借鉴意义。
［关键词］团体；重大疾病；发病率；风险研究
A Research on Group Critical Illness Insurance Risks—Using two towns in Dongguan as samples
Jiang Gong-wei
（Guangdong Branch of China Life Insurance Company Limited,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510145）
Abstract：Even though group critical insurance
is one of the key group insurance products,and morbidity and
claimed illnesses distribution determine its risk,there is no
related public research with actual empirical data from commercial
insurer in China.Using the policy data from the two group critical
illness plans of Hengli and Marchong townships of Dongguan
purchased from China Life Insurance Company Limited in in 2008,the
article researched on the critical illness morbidity and illnesses
distribution by sex,age and region,and analyzed the causes for
morbidity difference between the two towns.The research results
will be useful for risk analyzing,product developing and
pricing,and have some reference value for evaluating the
environmental impacts on critical illness morbidity.
Key words：group insurance;critical
illness;morbidity;risk research
我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思”
王晓军
（中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心，北京 100872）
［摘要］我国社会养老保险制度历经二十多年的改革和发展，建立了覆盖城乡的基本养老保险制度，但理论和实践中仍然存在不少对养老保险基本问题的混乱认识，本文讨论了关于我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思（myths）”①，澄清了在这些问题上普遍存在的认识误区。包括：基金制比现收现付制更能应对人口老龄化危机，养老保险个人账户采取“实账户”优于“名义账户”，养老保险存在巨额支付缺口，养老保险结余基金面临严重的资金贬损风险，养老保险存在的隐性债务使制度不可持续，现收现付养老保险不存在与隐性债务对应的“隐性资产”，基本养老保险提供的养老金替代率低于国际警戒水平，基本养老保险有利于高收入者，基本养老保险的缴费时间越长内含回报反而越低，对不同类型人员建立统一的养老保险制度才是公平的。
［关键词］基本养老保险；迷思；人口老龄化；隐性债务；替代率
Ten Myths of Social Pension System in China
Wang
（Center for Applied Statistics,Renmin University of
China,Beijing，100872）
Abstract：With about 20 years’ reform and
development,the social pension systems which cover urban and rural
residents have been established in China,but there are still
misunderstandings about some basic issues and practice.This article
discussed and clarified ten “myths” about the system.The myths
considered in this article include the following: (1) The funded
system can better cope with the ageing crisis than the
pay-as-you-go system;(2) Financial defined contribution is better
than non-financial defined contribution system;(3) There are huge
deficits in social pension fund;(4) Pension funds face serious
depreciation risk;(5) Implicit pension debts made the system
unsustainable;(6) There are no implicit assets in the PAYGO pension
system;(7) The replacement rate of basic social pension in China is
lower than ILO Convention;(8) The basic social pension systems
favors high income group;(9) The internal rate of return is lower
for longer contribution;(10) It is fair to set the same social
pension systems for different population groups.
Key words：social pension
systems;myths;ageing;IPO;replacement rate
王晓军在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
Lee-Carter模型在中国城市人口死亡率预测中的应用与改进
我国城乡养老保险制度衔接研究——基于参保人权益保护的视角
彭浩然1
（1.中山大学岭南学院，广东 广州 510275；2.中山大学教育科学研究所，广东 广州 510275）
［摘要］基于参保人权益保护的视角，本文研究了我国城乡养老保险制度衔接问题。为了促进劳动力自由流动，2012年11月底，人力资源和社会保障部就《城乡养老保险制度衔接暂行办法》向全社会公开征求意见。根据此暂行办法，本文运用临界边际分析方法，定量研究了两种情形下参保人所领取的基础养老金差距，并通过精算模拟，考察关键变量对结果的影响。通过测算，本文发现：参保人由职保转入新农保时，将会产生巨大的基础养老金权益损失，严重违反了公平原则。最后，针对以上问题，本文提出了相关政策建议。
［关键词］城乡养老保险制度衔接；参保人；权益保护
The Connection of China’s Urban and Rural Old-age Insurance Systems—From the perspective of interest protection of the insured
Peng Hao-ran,Xiao Min-hui,Xu Zheng
(1.Lingnan College of Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510275;2.Institute for Studies in Education of Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510275)
Abstract：This paper discussed the issue of
connecting China’s urban and rural old-age insurance systems from
the perspective of interest protection of the insured.In order to
promote free movement of the labor force,the Ministry of Human
Resources and Social Security sought for public opinions about the
“Interim Measures for the Connection of Urban and Rural old-age
insurance systems” at the end of 2012,11.According to this Interim
Measures,this paper conducted a quantitative study of the
differences between the amounts of basic pension benefits under two
scenarios using a critical marginal analysis,and investigated the
impacts of key variables on this result through actuarial
simulation.This paper found that it would engender huge basic
pension benefit losses when the insured transferred from the urban
old-age insurance system to the rural one,which seriously violated
the principle of fairness.Finally,aimed at the above problems,this
paper put forward relevant policy suggestions.
Key words：connection of urban and rural old-age
insurance system;the insured;interest protection
彭浩然在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
我国基本养老保险回报率比较研究
薛在兴
（中国青年政治学院社会工作学院，北京 100089）
［摘要］根据测算，我国按工作单位性质、性别、收入和缴费年限划分的各类人群的基本养老保险回报率都是正的，但存在显著差异。这表明劳动者参加基本养老保险都能够从中获益，但在福利性方面差别很大。基于给定的原则判断，单位性质差别、性别差别和缴费年限差别显失公平。分析了造成养老保险回报率差异的主要原因并提出对策。
［关键词］基本养老保险；养老保险回报率；养老金替代率；公平
A Comparative Study on the Rate of Return of China’s Basic Old-age Insurance Fund
Xue Zai-xing
（China Youth University for Political Sciences,Beijing 100089）
Abstract： According to our estimation and
calculation,the rate of returns of various basic old-age insurance
programs in China are all positive,but there are significant
differences for these programs in terms of the nature of working
unit,sex,income and contribution years.This shows that all
participants can benefit from the basic pension plan,but at
significantly different levels.According to the given principles,it
is obviously unfair for the existence of differences due to working
unit nature,sex and contribution years.The paper further analyzed
main reasons for the differences and offered some suggestions to
address this phenomenon.
Key words：basic old-age insurance;rate of return
on old-age insurance;pension replacement rate;equality
基本养老保险转轨成本的计算偏误与偿付机制
陈丰元
（中国人民大学劳动人事学院，北京 100872）
［摘要］中国养老保险改革转轨成本在已有研究中有不少论述，但是在精算模型假设和政策理解上存在偏误，即：对个人账户养老金社会替代率的误解和视同缴费年限考虑的缺失。文章采用到期累计负债法，以静态的视角将上述两个影响因子纳入考量，提出了一套转轨成本的计算方法并结合十多年基本养老保险改革的实际现状，分析转轨成本的偿付机制。本文的研究结论认为：提高养老保险的统筹层次并在确定转轨成本规模的前提下公平合理设计偿付机制是改革的当务之急。
［关键词］转轨成本；计算偏误；偿付机制
Transitional Cost of China’s Pension System and Its Liquidation Mechanism
Chen Feng-yuan，Mi Hai-jie，Gui Yan，Cai Ze-hao，Jin Xue-chen
(RENMIN University School of Labor and Human Resources,Beijing 100872)
Abstract：Plenty of existing literatures have
discussed the transitional costs of China’s pension
reform.However,there remain some errors in actuarial model
assumptions and interpretation of policies in those researches:
misinterpretation of the social replacement rate of personal
accounts and the absence of considerations of deemed contribution
period.Taking account of those two factors,this article,by using
accrued-to-date liabilities method from a static
perspective,proposed a new way for calculating the transitional
costs and analyzed the mechanism of transitional cost payment
according to pension reform practices during the past decade.It
concluded that at the current stage of reform,it was important to
lift the social pooling level,and meanwhile design a fair payment
mechanism after figuring out the magnitude of the transitional
costs.
Key words：transitional cost;calculation
error;liquidation mechanism
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