China developers move beyond shanghai Beijing, defy curbs

2011年，开发商内地掘金忙

以下内容来自2月10日Bloomberg网站：

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Zhang Zhiming, head of China research at HSBC Holdings Plc, talks about the outlook for Chinese inflation after The People’s Bank of China raised the one-year lending rate by a quarter point to 6.06 percent. Zhang, speaking with Bloomberg's Linda Yueh in London, also discusses China's exports and property market. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

2月8号，(Bloomberg)—张志明(音译)，汇丰控股中国研究部主管，谈到中国人民银行提高一年期贷款利率0.25%到6.06%之后，对于通胀的影响，张志明在伦敦和Bloomberg 的Linda Yueh探讨中国的出口和楼市。

 

Chinese developers are building more homes in cities across the nation away from the financial hub of Shanghai and the capital Beijing, which may be the hardest hit by government measures to curb property prices.

中国的开发商们真在金融中心的上海和首都北京之外的地方兴建更多的住宅，以规避史上最严厉的政府调控政策对于抑制一线城市房价所作的打击。

 

China Vanke Co., the country’s biggest developer by market value, said an expansion into central and western Chinese cities, including Wuhan and Chengdu, helped 2010 revenue exceed 100 billion yuan ($15 billion), a target it had set for 2014, while Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. counted on towns in the nation’s interior to boost sales.

 

万科，中国市值最大的开发商，开始向中西部城市拓展，包括武汉和成都，使得2010年销售额超过1000亿元（150亿美元），而恒大地产制定2014年销售目标，也是计算了内陆城市不断增长的销售额。

 

Cheaper land and rising incomes in inland cities are luring developers as the government targets speculators, focused on Shanghai and Beijing, with stricter mortgage requirements and property taxes. Land investment in less affluent cities jumped 35.4 percent in the past year, according to data from China Real Estate Information Corp., which tracks 40 publicly traded developers.

当政府开始针对北京、上海的炒房客，实施限贷令和房产税之后，内地城市便宜的地价，和增长的收入诱使开发商进驻，根据中国房地产信息中心数据显示（记录40宗土地交易）土地不那么稀缺的城市去年一年地价暴涨了35.4%

 

“Absolutely policy is a driver of this, both because the policy’s footing in more developed cities is stricter and also because there is tremendous unmet demand for modern housing in these second-tier cities where incomes are rising quickly,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Shanghai.

仲量联行（上海）中国市场研究主管Michael Klibaner说“完全是因为政策的驱使，除了因为调控政策的立足点是在抑制一线城市楼市，但是一些二线城市由于收入的快速增长对于楼市的刚需甚大”

 

First-tier cities include wealthier Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, in southern China, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The second tier includes provincial capitals and the third includes smaller cities.

根据国家统计局说法，一线城市包括富裕的上海，北京和南方的广州，二线城市包含省会城市，而三线城市是更小的城市。

Residential land costs in the central city of Wuhan averaged 1,662 yuan per square meter in January, compared with Beijing’s 4,145 yuan and 5,692 yuan in Shanghai, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd., China’s biggest real estate website.

根据SouFun Holdings Ltd（中国最大的房地产网站）数据显示：一月份武汉中心区商品房地价为1662元/平方米，而北京是4145元/平方米，上海是5692元/平方米

 

“Everyone agrees that opportunities lie in second- and third-tier cities, including us,” said Yang Haisong, a Hong Kong-based spokesman for China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., a state-owned developer. “There are more cities in that category and their home prices have more room to rise.”

国企开发商在香港的公司——中国海外投资公司发言人Yang Haisong说：“每个人都看中了二三线城市的机遇，还有很多的城市房价还有上涨的空间”。

 

Hong Kong-based China Overseas, which started expanding in the country’s interior five years ago, posted its biggest increase in sales volume in northern China in December. It sold 1.5 million square meters (16 million square feet), a 67 percent jump from the same period a earlier, in the region that includes Shenyang, Changchun, Dalian and Qingdao.

香港的“中国海外”，5年前就在内陆城市拓展业务，去年12月，来自中国北方的销售收入成为集团销售额的最大的增长——全年销售一百五十万平方米的面积，比去年同期猛涨67%，这个区域包含沈阳、大连和青岛。

 

“Top cities are increasingly mature: people are actually going to be second-, third- or fourth-time buyers,” said Wee Liat Lee, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at Samsung Securities Co. “If you go to these lower-tier cities, a lot of them are first-time buyers. You are tapping into fundamental demand, with no restrictions.”

香港公司“三星证劵”物业分析师Wee Liat Lee说：“一线城市已经日益成熟，购房者大多是多次置业的买家，而二三线城市的买家大多是首次置业，属于刚需，（政策）上也没有太多的限制。

 

Rising Incomes

收入增长

Per capita net income in rural areas rose 10.9 percent to 5,919 yuan last year -- the biggest gain since 1984. Average disposable income in urban areas rose 7.8 percent. China’s economy grew 10.3 percent in 2010.

去年农村人均收入增长10.9%达到5919元，这也是1984年以来最大增长，在城市，人均可支配收入增长了7.8%，而去年中国经济增长了10.3%

The average disposable income rose 10.4 percent in Shanghai to 31,838 yuan and 8.7 percent in Beijing to 29,073 yuan in 2010, compared with 13.2 percent in Wuhan to 20,806 yuan and 11.3 percent in Chongqing to 17,532 yuan, according to data from the local statistics bureaus.

根据统计数据显示：上海人均可支配收入增长了10.4%达到31,838元，北京人均可支配收入增长了8.7%达到20,806元，而重庆人均可支配收入增长了11.3 %达到17,532元

 

The second- and third-tier cities will remain growth engines for developers in 2011, according to Christie Ju at Jefferies Equity Research in Hong Kong.

在2011年，二三线城市将会是开发商们重要的收益来源。

 

“China is a combination of cities: Beijing and Shanghai, which are equivalent to those in developed countries, and the smaller cities, like those in emerging markets,” said Ju, head of Hong Kong and China research at Jefferies, a New York-based firm. “Developers realized that many people need quality housing and not everyone lives in Beijing or Shanghai.”

Christie Ju，来自纽约公司Jefferies Equity，香港/中国市场研究主管说：“中国市场包含两部分，北京上海，类似于发达国家，而小城市，类似于新兴市场，不是每个人都生活在北京上海，开发商们意识到小城市的人们也需要有品质的住房”

 

 Higher Rates 高利率

Still, the government has expanded property curbs to limit the risk of asset bubbles in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, and the central bank raised interest rates on Feb. 8 for the third time since mid-October.

政府依然还在调控楼市抑制这个世界经济增长最快的国家资产泡沫，2月8号，央行加息，是自从去年十月中旬以来第三次提高利率。

 

“The property market is a huge bubble,” Andy Xie, an independent economist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong yesterday. China may raise interest rates four more times this year to curb inflation, Xie added.

“The government is trying to engineer a soft landing,” he said. “The property market will turn.”

谢安迪，独立经济学家，昨天接受Bloomberg Television彭博电视在香港的采访说：“楼市泡沫很大，今年中国还会第四次，甚至更多次加息，抑制通胀，政府试图软着陆，楼市即将转向”

 

China’s real estate prices rose 6.4 percent in December from a year earlier, increasing for a 19th month, the country’s statistics bureau said Jan. 17.

Home prices rose 21.4 percent in Shanghai in January from a year earlier, 25 percent in Beijing, 27.8 percent in Chongqing and 16.1 percent in Wuhan, according to SouFun.

1月17日，国家统计局说：中国房价去年12月同比增长6.4%，已经连续增长了19个月。SouFun 数据显示：上海房价一月份同比增长21.4%，北京25%，重庆27.8%，武汉16.1%

 

Property Curbs 抑制楼市

 Last month, policy makers approved property tax trials on some homes in Shanghai and the western city of Chongqing, raised the minimum down payment for second-home purchases, and asked local authorities to set price targets for new properties and boost land supply.

上个月，政府批准上海和西部城市重庆开始增收房产税的试点，对于二手楼买家提高了首付，要求地方政府设定房价调控的目标，增加土地供应。

 

“We believe this round of tightening is in response to recent rises in property prices, especially in some tier-2/3 cities, and reveals the government’s low tolerance of further rises at this stage,” said Hong Kong-based Peng Wensheng, chief economist at China International Capital Corp., in a Feb. 1 e- mailed report.

香港“中国国际资本公司”首席经济师Peng Wensheng表示：我们相信本轮调控是因为近期房价的上涨。特别是一些二三线城市，超出了政府的容忍“

 

China last year restricted loans to developers, and some cities including Beijing limited the number of homes local residents can buy.

中国去年收紧了对于开发商的信贷，一些城市包括北京实施了限购令

 

Less affluent cities will offer more opportunities for developers this year because they may not fully implement government tightening policies, said Samsung Securities’ Lee.

三星证劵的lee说：今年内地城市将为开发商提供更多的机会，因为不需要完全实行政府的调控政策。

  

“The local governments will have much less incentives to really execute what the central government wants,” he said. “A lot of these cities still rely heavily on land sales for their funding.”

他说：地方政府未必有太多的动力实施中央政策，很多城市都严重依赖土地财政。

 

To boost sales, Shenzhen-based Vanke, China’s biggest developer, said it entered inland cities such as Kunming in the south and Guiyang in the west last year.

万科，中国最大的开发商，宣称他们去年已经进入南部的昆明和西部的贵阳

Evergrande, based in Guangzhou, sold the second-most properties following Vanke in China by volume last year,  with the sales value increasing 66.4 percent to 50.4 billion yuan from 2009. More than 90 percent of its sales came from central and western cities including Changsha, Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan, the company said on Jan 10.

广州恒大地产，去年销售收入仅次于万科的第二排名公司，其销售收入自从2009年起增长66.4%达到504亿元，超过90%的收入来源于中西部城市包含长沙、重庆、成都，武汉。

 

“The government’s property tightening took place in the top cities, but our sales in second- and third-tier cities are doing very well and drove our sales higher,” Xia Haijun, Evergrande chief executive officer, said at a Hong Kong briefing on Dec. 8.

谢海军（音译），恒大地产CEO 2月8号在香港接受简短采访时说：政府的调控政策在一线城市起到了效果，但是我们在二三线城市的做的很好，提升了我们的业绩。

 

‘Balanced Strategy’ 平衡的策略

 In Wuhan, the new transportation hub for China’s high-speed trains, billboards line the highway offering homes from companies, including Vanke, Shanghai Forte Land Co., and Shanghai Greenland Group, the developer of the world’s third- tallest building in the city. Land sales in Wuhan rose 163 percent to 78.2 billion yuan last year from 2009, according to SouFun.

武汉，中国高铁的交通枢纽，这里有万科，上海复地、上海绿地——世界第三高建筑的开发商，SouFun数据显示：去年是自2009年以来卖地收入上涨了163%，达到782亿元。

 

Home prices in Wuhan were much lower compared with Shanghai and Beijing and have more room to grow,” said Li Guozheng, an analyst at the central China branch of SouFun in the city.

Li Guozheng,武汉SouFun的分析师说“武汉房价远比上海和北京低，还有增长的空间”

 While China Overseas is seeking a “more balanced strategy” with expansion into smaller cities, “top cities still command a higher margin,” said Yang.

中国海外正在寻求平衡的策略，在小城市拓展业务，杨说：“一线城市依然有着更高的盈利”

 

Developers should pay attention to factors such as the cities’ growth rates, infrastructure and job creation when expanding, said Klibaner at Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle.

仲量联行芝加哥分行的Klibaner说“开发商们也在关注城市经济增长率的因素，当他们拓展时，考虑当地的基础设施和创造就业的情况”

 

“It’s a decade-long process and we are still at the earliest stage,” said Klibaner, who forecasts more Chinese developers will expand outside Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and top-ranked tier-two cities. The trend is “in line with China’s overall economic growth,” he said.

Klibaner，预测有更多的中国开发商们将会在北京上海广州之外的二线城市拓展业务，他说：“（这个开发）历时十年进程，我们还在前沿，这一趋势符合中国未来经济的全面增长”

--Bonnie Cao. Editors: Linus Chua, Andreea Papuc