副标题：AlixPartners表示，市场份额将从今年的21%迅速增长，大部分增长将发生在中国以外地区

作者：克里斯·奇尔顿（Chris Chilton）https://www.carscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Hungry-1024x576.jpg" TITLE="专家预测，到2030年，中国品牌将占据全球汽车市场33%的份额" />

• 分析师预测，到2030年，中国汽车制造商的全球市场份额将从21%提高到31%。
• AlixPartners的研究表明，到本世纪末，中国将控制12%的欧洲市场和72%的国内市场。
• 更快的开发时间和更低的生产成本使中国品牌比其他国家的汽车制造商更具优势。

到2030年，全球每三辆汽车中就有一辆将由中国汽车制造商生产。这是一直在研究中国增长曲线的行业专家做出的令人震惊的新预测。

中国汽车已经占据了21%的市场份额，但分析师预计中国汽车行业将迅速扩张。部分增长将来自中国，而西方品牌则受到西方品牌的影响，国内品牌的份额将从59%提高到72%。

相关新闻：加拿大考虑对中国制造的电动汽车征收关税，但你唯一能买到的是特斯拉

但更令人担忧的是，这些西方品牌的大部分额外销售将来自中国境外。AlixPartners认为，到本世纪末，中国汽车制造商在中国境外的销量将从2024年的300万辆激增至900万辆。

尽管拜登政府推出的新的100%关税将限制中国进军北美的能力，日本也将难以破解，但该研究预测，到2030年，中国汽车制造商在欧洲汽车市场的份额将翻一番，达到12%，在俄罗斯市场的份额将从33%增加到69%。

据CNBC报道，中东和非洲的销售额预计将从8%增长到39%，中美洲和南美洲的交付量可能会从7%增长到28%。

中国市场占有率

地区	中国份额 2024	中国2030年所占份额（预测）
全球	21%	33%
中国	59%	72%
俄罗斯	33%	69%
欧洲	6%	12%
北美洲	1%	3%
中美洲和南美洲	7%	28%
中东和非洲	8%	39%
日本	0%	1%
南亚和东南亚	3%	31%

来源：AlixPartners

众所周知，中国汽车制造商享有更高的利润率及其激进的定价策略，但分析师也发现了其他重要优势。其中包括西方汽车制造商一半的开发时间，以及中国因此更频繁地更新其车型阵容的能力。

“中国品牌更看重客户可以实际体验的功能，例如设计和车内技术;他们无情地专注于保持成本优势，即使他们在国外建厂;他们在新兴技术（包括电池生产）方面建立了相当大的领先优势，“AlixPartners的Andrew Bergbaum说。

“这些capabilities吸引了中国，并最终将定义全球市场，”他补充道。https://www.carscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/zeekr-show--1024x683.jpg" TITLE="专家预测，到2030年，中国品牌将占据全球汽车市场33%的份额" />

标签 中国行业报告销售研究

原文阅读

Chinese Brands To Grab 33% Of Global Car Market By 2030, Experts Predict 

Market share will grow rapidly from 21 percent this year and most of the growth will take place outside China, AlixPartners says

• Chinese automakers will improve their global market share from 21% to 31% by 2030, analysts predict.
• Study by AlixPartners suggests China will control 12% of European market and 72% of its domestic market by the end of the decade.
• Faster development times and lower production costs give Chinese brands an advantage over other nations’ automakers.

One in every three cars sold in the world in 2030 will be built by a Chinese automaker. That’s the shocking new prediction from industry experts who have been studying China’s growth curve.

Chinese cars already account for a significant 21 percent of the market, but analysts expect the nation’s industry to expand rapidly. Some of the growth will come in China at the expense of Western brands, domestic brands improving their share from 59 to 72 percent.

Related: Canada Mulls Tariffs On Chinese-Made EVs, But The Only One You Can Buy Is A Tesla

But even more worryingly for those same Western brands, most of the additional sales will come from beyond China’s borders. AlixPartners thinks Chinese automaker sales made outside of China will explode from 3 million in 2024 to 9 million by the end of the decade.

Though new 100 percent tariffs introduced by the Biden Administration will limit China’s ability to push into North America, and Japan will also prove hard to crack, the study predicts Chinese automakers will have doubled their share of the European car market to 12 percent by 2030 and increased their 33 percent share of the Russian market to 69 percent.

Middle East and Africa sales are expected to grow from 8 to 39 percent and deliveries in Central and South America could rise from 7 to 28 percent, CNBC reports.

China’s Market Share

Region	China’s Share 2024	China’s Share 2030 (predicted)
Global	21%	33%
China	59%	72%
Russia	33%	69%
Europe	6%	12%
North America	1%	3%
Central and South America	7%	28%
Middle East and Africa	8%	39%
Japan	0%	1%
South and Southeast Asia	3%	31%

Source: AlixPartners

The higher margins enjoyed by Chinese automakers and their aggressive pricing strategies are well known, but analysts have identified other important advantages. These include development times that are half those of Western carmakers and China’s ability to refresh its model lineups more frequently as a result.

“Chinese brands put a higher value on features customers can actually experience, such as design and in-cabin tech; they are ruthlessly focused on maintaining their cost advantage even as they build factories abroad; and they have built a considerable lead in emerging technologies – including battery production,” says AlixPartners’ Andrew Bergbaum. 

“Those capabilities have captivated China and will eventually define the global marketplace,” he added.