So if the entire country became securities analysts, memorized Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor and regularly attended Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder meetings, most people would, nevertheless, find themselves irresistibly drawn to hot initial public offerings, momentum

strategies and investment fads. People would still find it tempting to day-trade and perform technical analysis of stock charts. A country of security analysts would still overreact. In short, even the best-trained investors would make the same mistakes that investors have been making forever, and for the same immutable reason – that they cannot help it.

Seth Klarman, 3.23.05

如果整个国家的人都变成证券分析师，能背出格雷厄姆的《聪明投资人》并且定期参加巴菲特的年度股东大会，尽管如此，大多数的人会发现自己还是不可抗拒地被拖入公开发行新股、动量投资和热点投机中。人们会发现即日交易和根据图表进行的技术交流依然极具诱惑。一个充满证券分析师的国度依然会反应过度。简而言之，即使经过最佳训练的投资者也会犯一般投资者一直在犯并将永远要犯的错误，因为永恒的原因，他们不可能不这样做。

塞思·卡拉曼

Human beings are subject to wild swings in their levels of fear, risk tolerance and greed. That won’t change. I base my whole approach on buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. The reason Shakespeare is so relevant still today is that his plays were all about human nature, and human nature never changes.

Mark Sellers, 6.19.05

人类的恐惧、风险忍耐度和贪婪的程度受疯狂的摆荡所支配。这个不会改变。我的全部投资方法都基于其它人恐惧时我买入，其它人贪婪时我卖出。莎士比亚剧中的人类本性在今天依然未变，而且也永远不会变。

马克·塞勒斯——（夕注：作“你永远也成不了巴菲特”讲演的人）

“Humans have a strong desire to be part of a group,” says Legg Mason equity strategist Michael Mauboussin in a 2004 research paper that dissects how investors make decisions. “That desire makes us susceptible to fads, fashions and idea contagions.”

VII, 9.28.05

“人类有强烈的愿望要成为集体中的一员”， Legg Mason公司股权战略家Michael Mauboussin 2004在一篇研究论文中剖析一般投资人如何作决定，“这种愿望让我们易于追寻热点、时尚并相互情绪感染。

VII，

On the behavioral-finance side, one of many inefficiencies comes from people anchoring on the past. People assume something is cheap, say, just because it hasn’t traded at such a low valuation for five or ten years. But that doesn’t matter, what matters is what will be.

Ric Dillon, 6.29.07

在行为金融学方面，一种无效就是人们通过过去来定位。如何说什么东西便宜，就说是因为它在这样一个低价位下已经交易了五或十年。但那是没有关系的，要看的是将来会怎样。

里克-狄龙，

We always ask whether we ourselves have any competitive advantage in analyzing a particular company. Can we know the business better because no one else seems to be paying attention? Is the market’s view being distorted by some behavioral or structural bias that we don’t have?

Brian Bares, 9.30.08

我们经常问自己，在分析一家公司的时候我们拥有什么竞争优势。我们能更好地了解一家企业因为没有其它人似乎在注意？市场的是否被一些行为或结构偏见给扭曲了而我们自己没有？

Brian Bares

The reason [GE traded at $55 in 2001] was because I’d estimate that 95% of the dollars invested in the U.S. stock market were either indexed or closet indexed – people had to own it to keep up with the benchmark. If they thought it was overvalued, their response would be to maybe buy only a 3% position rather than the 4% weighting in the benchmark. That’s

the type of irrational behavior that can create inefficiency.

Ric Dillon, 6.29.07

我估计投资于美国股票市场的95%的美元是指数化的或closet indexed——人们必须持有这只股票以便能跟上基准。如果他们认为这只股票高估了，他们的反应可能是3%的仓位，而不是指数权重中的4%。 这是一种非理性行为可以造成低效。

Ric Dillon,

Investors overreact to the latest news, which has always been the case, but I think it's especially true today with the Internet. Information spreads so quickly that decisions get made without particularly deep knowledge about the companies involved. People also overemphasize

dramatic events, often without checking the facts. It's the classic, “Are more people killed each year by sharks or by being trampled by pigs?” type of situation – the dramatic event can get more play than it

deserves. These types of overreactions are what we're trying to take advantage of.

John Dorfman, 10.31.08

投资者对最新的新闻反应过度，经常就是这样，尤其是在拥有了互联网的今天。信息传播得如此这快以致于在对相关的公司还没有足够了解的情况下就作出决定。人们也过分强化戏剧性的事件，经常不对事实进行核实。这是经典的场景，“是鲨鱼杀死的人多还是猪踩死的人多？”——这种戏剧性的事件造成的结果比正常情况下多得多。这种反应过度就是我们试图利用的。

John Dorfman

One way of dealing with information being more available is to stop playing the game and seek out securities or asset classes where there’s less information or competition.

Seth Klarman, 9.30.08

处理过多信息的一个方法就是停止玩这种游戏，去挑选那些信息和竞争较少的股票。

塞思·卡拉曼

Wall Street sometimes gets confused between risk and uncertainty, and you

can profit handsomely from that confusion. The low-risk, high-uncertainty [situation] gives us our most sought after coin-toss odds. Heads, I win; tails, I don’t lose much!

Mohnish Pabrai, 6.29.07

华尔街时常在风险和不确定性间变得迷乱，你能从这迷乱中成功获利。低风险，高不确定性，给了我们很多抛硬币的机会，正面，我赢；反面，我输得不多。

莫尼什·帕伯莱