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投资智慧(2)——时间跨度

(2009-06-25 20:48:52)
标签:

价值投资

分类: 价值投资智慧

It’s still true that the biggest players in the public markets – particularly mutual funds and hedge funds – are not good at taking short-term pain for long-term gain. The money’s very quick to move if performance falls off over short periods of time. We don’t worry about headline risk – once we believe in an asset, we’re buying more on any dips because we’re focused on the end game three or four years out.

Jeffrey Ubben, 1.31.06

可以确定的是,市场中最大的玩家,尤其是共同基金和对冲基金,并不擅长忍受短期痛苦并获得长期收益。如果短期内表现不好,钱离开的速度是很快的。我们不担心报纸头条新闻造成的风险,一旦我们认准一只股票,在每一次下跌中我们都在买,因为我们玩的是三、四年之久的游戏。

杰弗雷-厄本(曾为玛莎的公司的股东)

 

Time is our friend. Today there’s so much money chasing quarterly performance or driven by program trading, index funds or ETFs. That leaves a real opportunity for fundamental investors like us who are looking out two to four years to find inflections in businesses which aren’t currently appreciated by the market.

Joe Wolf, 4.30.07

时间是我们的朋友。今天,太多的资金追逐季度表现,或被程式交易、指数基金和ETFs所驱动。这给我们这样的研究基本面的投资者提供了真正的机会。我们常常要等待24年才会发现这些并不被当下市场所看重的机会。

Joe Wolf

 

Time arbitrage just means exploiting the fact that most investors – institutional, individual, mutual funds or hedge funds – tend to have very short-term time horizons, have rapid turnover or are trying to exploit very short-term anomalies in the market. So the market looks extremely efficient in the short run. In an environment with massive short-term data overload and with people concerned about minute-to-minute performance, the inefficiencies are likely to be looking out beyond, say, 12 months.

Bill Miller, 6.19.05

利用大多数投资者,如机构、个人、共同基金和对冲基金倾向于进行短期交易、快速周转资金或捕捉市场中的异常机会,时间套利就意味着利用这些人的这些行为。市场在短期看起来非常有效。在一个短期信息大量超载,人们关心的是以分钟为单位的业绩表现的环境下,无效可以在看起来很远的地方,比如说,12个月。

比尔·米勒

 

Because enough people in the market think they’ll get fired for buying something that might be a year away from getting better, that provides real opportunity for people who aren’t worried about that.

Jeffrey Bronchick, 1.31.08

因为市场中足够的人们认为买了一年以上都不涨的股票,他们就会抓狂,这给那些不担心这种情况的人们提供了真正的机会。

Jeffrey Bronchick

 

I’ve read that the average holding period on the New York Stock Exchange is nine months, which I don’t even consider investing. Over such a short period of time you’re just betting on the overall direction of the market or on the next quarterly earnings.

Aaron Edelheit, 1.31.08

我了解过在纽约证券交易所平均的持股时间为9个月,这么短的时间我都不会考虑去投资。在这么短的时间内,你几乎就是在赌市场的方向或者下个季度的收益。

Aaron Edelheit

 

The most important change in my 40 years of investing has probably been in investors’ time horizons. Today the majority of investors – Ben Graham would call them speculators – are focused so closely on this week, this month and this quarter. Stocks are bought and sold on penny deviations from short-term estimates, which is mind-boggling. Crazy as it is, we can’t complain – it just creates more opportunities for investors with longer time horizons.

William Nasgovitz, 9.30.08

在我40年的投资生涯中,最重要的变化可能就是投资的时间范围。今天,大多数的投资者,Ben Graham称他们为投机者,只是关注这周,这月和这个季度。股票短期内被买来卖去甚至以美分来计,简直令人难以置信。如此的疯狂,我们并不抱怨,它为长期投资者创造了更多的机会。

William Nasgovitz

 

We have no problem buying things that take a long time to play out. Call me lazy, but I don't want to worry about last week's same-store sales or next week's oil price.

Jeffrey Schwarz, 5.30.08

买一些股票,很长时间以后再卖出对我们没有问题。可以说我懒,但我不用操心上周的销售额和下一周的油价。

Jeffrey Schwarz

 

An argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn't it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear [and] you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of longterm values.

Warren Buffett (quote from Forbes),4.30.07

对不远的未来总是有太多的问号,是不是等到形势明确一点行动会更好?你知道有话说:不停地买直到当下的不确定性消失。有两个事实:

1、在你付出很高的大家一致同意的价格前,未来永远不会清晰;

2、不确定是长期价值投资者的朋友。

巴菲特

 

I have a ready answer when people ask me why I’m such a long-term investor, which is because I failed miserably as a short-term investor. I’m not against making money in the short term, I just don’t know how to do it.

Thomas Gayner, 12.21.07

当别人问我为什么做一个长期投资者时,我有一个现成的答案,就是我作为一个短期投资者败得很惨。我并不反对短期投资,只是我不知道怎么去作。

Thomas Gayner

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