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巴菲特告诉CNBC说:在股票投资上会犯下的最严重错误就是根据当前的各种头条新闻来买入或卖出

(2012-05-09 12:13:23)
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股票

分类: 转载关于巴菲特的文章

欧洲选举可能造成的政治混乱_

福布斯中文网

巴菲特告诉CNBC说:在股票投资上会犯下的最严重错误就是根据当前的各种头条新闻来买入或卖出
欧洲三项重要的选举现在都已经结束。有哪些政治可能性将会在未来几个月内影响经济政策走向呢?

巴菲特周一在接受CNBC财经频道采访时表示,欧洲仍将难以解决其诸多财政问题,其原因是欧盟自身结构使得共识难以达成——尤其是在有关财政政策或政府开 支方面的事项上。财政紧缩政策在这个周末触礁。但力促实施财政紧缩政策的德国相关党派及势力并未因此泄气。巴菲特不会押注欧洲的财政紧缩政策会瓦解。

巴菲特告诉CNBC说:“我认为,在股票投资上会犯下的最严重错误,就是根据当前的各种头条新闻来买入或卖出股票。”

在法国社会党领袖弗朗索瓦·奥朗德 (Francois Hollande)当选总统以及希腊选民在投票中选择那些反对本国接受国际救助的政党之后,欧元兑美元汇率连续第六个交易日走低。投资者担心,欧洲的财政 紧缩政策现在面临搁浅的危险,导致政府预算继续膨胀,而欧盟继过去一年为解决其债务危机而向前迈出两步之后将再倒退两步(而回到原地)。奥朗德反对德国总 理默克尔及德国央行为力促欧元区外围国家削减开支及增加税收而采取及游说的危机解决方式。希腊议会中出现了三个新的反对接受国际救助的党派。

“我们对这些选举结果并不感到非常惊讶。欧洲选民继续把那些支持紧缩政策的政客拉下台。”位于新泽西州泰伯山镇(Mount Tabor)的精品投资研究公司——布雷顿森林研究公司(Bretton Woods Research LLC)全球宏观经济研究总裁弗拉德·西诺雷利(Vlad Signorelli)如是说。西诺雷利曾在目前已不复存在的智库Polyconomics担任全球宏观经济研究总裁,Polyconomics与布雷顿 森林研究公司类似,也是一家侧重于经济政策的供应派经济研究机构。这家机构的创办者是曾在罗纳德·里根执政时期担任经济顾问的裘德·瓦尼斯基(Jude Wanniski)。

本周所有的目光都将聚焦在奥朗德身上。他在最后关头以微弱优势战胜萨科齐,得票率为52%。奥朗德在其获胜演讲中表示:“紧缩政策不再是不可避免!”周一,法国CAC-40指数走势相对平缓,而法国国债收益率仍然谨慎趋稳。

标签:欧盟 弗朗索瓦•奥朗德 默克尔 希腊

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西诺雷利说:“我们认为,市场目前都在观望,作为其促进经济增长的计划的一部分,奥朗德会立即实行什么政策。6月份举行的议会选举将决定奥朗德在把这些构想变成立法方面具有多大的影响力。”

奥朗德面临的最大斗争将发生在与默克尔之间,后者大致上堪称欧元区的“沉船船长”。她所属的德国基督教民主联盟(CDU,简称基民盟)在石勒苏益格-荷尔 斯泰因州(Schleswig-Holstein)的选举中惨败。由基民盟-自由民主党(FDP,简称自民党)组成的执政联盟遭受到自1950年以来最惨 痛的选票结果,他们的得票率总计为39.1%(基民盟的得票率为30.4%,自民党的得票率为8.4%)。与此同时,德国左翼的社会民主党(SPD,简称 社民党)及绿党的得票率总计为43.6%,预计与代表丹麦少数民族和弗里斯兰人少数民族利益的南什列斯威选民联盟(SSW) 形成一个新的联合政府。通过这个途径,社民党现在控制的德国州政府将比默克尔的基民盟还要多。

西诺雷利说:“如果德国的社民党和绿党已准备好与法国新任总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德就欧洲经济增长协议进行磋商,那么自民党的减税构想将成为他们协议纲领中值得欢迎的一个补充。因此,此类磋商的进展将对德国和欧洲具有非常积极的意义。”

与此同时,财政紧缩措施在希腊实施的道路上面临极力抵制。该国两个最大的政党——新民主党(New Democracy)和泛希腊社会运动党(Pasok)未能获得40%的选票。西诺雷利说:“希腊脱离欧元区的可能性介于50%-75%之间,而我们认为 这些可能性为33%。”

希腊绝大多数选民投票支持那些赞同希腊留在欧元区的政党。此番选举非难显然反对那些由柏林和布鲁塞尔提出的紧缩要求,而这些紧缩要求已促使希腊经济陷入萧条。

希腊的激进左翼联盟(Syriza)结果得票率超过泛希腊社会运动党而跃居第二。该党把目前政府实施的一系列财政紧缩政策说成是——以牺牲希腊百姓利益为 代价服务于银行家、寡头及财阀。激进左翼联盟将取消希腊救助协议,并有可能从头开始进行谈判。但西诺雷利指出,如果该党领袖阿莱克斯·齐普拉斯 (Alexis Tsipras)有关向富人增税的言论为我们提供了任何暗示的话,那就是他并没有多少促进经济增长的方案。 “我们可能会看到激进左翼联盟与右倾的新民主党合作,新民主党也承诺就以前达成的救助协议与布鲁塞尔进行重新磋商。”

标签:欧盟 弗朗索瓦•奥朗德 默克尔 希腊

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按数字来看,新民主党及其表面上支持经济增长而反对财政紧缩的宗旨在组建新联合政府方面拥有最佳的机会。新民主党有三天的时间筹组新政府,倘若失败则由激 进左翼联盟做出尝试,倘若还失败则由得票率排名第三的泛希腊社会运动党筹组新政府。如果这三个政党未能组建新的联合政府,那么希腊总统卡罗洛斯·帕普利亚 斯(Karolos Papoulias)可能协调组成一个全国团结政府。如果这个过程再失败,那么根据宪法规定,将重新进行选举。然而,鉴于周日的选举结果,任何新的联合政 府如果最终在这个“零容忍”的环境中力促实施更多紧缩措施的话,那么都几乎肯定将面临崩溃。

周一晚些时候,据彭博社来自雅典的报道表示,新民主党领袖安东尼斯·萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)未能就组建新联合政府达成协议。萨马拉斯在雅典磋商六小时之后,放弃了自己组建联合政府的努力。现在尝试筹组新联合政府的接力棒转到了激 进左翼联盟领袖阿莱克斯·齐普拉斯的手中。该政党已发誓要推翻希腊救助协议。 齐普拉斯将在雅典当地时间周二下午2点与希腊总统卡罗洛斯·帕普利亚斯会晤。

“不可能形成一个帕普利亚斯所说的救国政府,因为现有的协议以及他的承诺救不了国家,而是给希腊人民及国家带来灾难。”齐普拉斯在会晤后的一份声明中如是表示。

现在或许不是相信欧洲的时候,但如果欧洲各国能够就支持经济增长的一系列措施(包括尽可能减税)达成协议的话,那么欧洲就会走上复苏的轨道。正如巴菲特今天上午在CNBC上所说:“欧洲目前面临很多问题。他们会解决这些问题的,但在此过程中必然会遭受许多痛苦。”
http://www.forbeschina.com/review/201205/0016673.shtml

双语阅读:Possible Political Fallout From European Elections - Analyst

Possible Political Fallout From European Elections - Analyst

Three important European elections are now behind us.  What are some of the political possibilities that will drive economic policy in the months ahead?

Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday that Europe will still have a hard time resolving its fiscal problems because the structure of the European Union makes it difficult to reach consensus, especially on matters related to fiscal policy, or government spending. Austerity took a beating this weekend. But its prize fighter in Germany is no slouch.  Buffet won’t be betting on austerity’s demise in Europe.

“I think the worst mistake you can make in stocks is to buy or sell based on current headlines,” Buffett told CNBC.

The euro slid for a sixth day versus the dollar after French Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president and Greek voters picked anti-bailout parties. Investors are worried that European austerity policies will now be scrapped going forward, leading to a continuation of bloated government budgets and two steps back from the two steps forward the EU  has taken over the last year in solving its debt crises.  Hollande is against the way German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Bundesbank has managed and lobbied for spending cuts and taxation to solve problems in peripheral Europe.  The Greek parliament will have three new anti-bailout parties represented.

“We were not very surprised by those results. The European electorate continues to throw out those politicians who espouse the austerian playbook,” says Vlad Signorelli, director of global macro research at the boutique Bretton Woods Research LLC in Mount Tabor, New Jersey. Signorelli held the same title at the defunct Polyconomics, a similar policy focused, supply-side research firm started by former Ronald Reagan economic adviser Jude Wanniski.

All eyes will be on Hollande this week. He beat Nicolas Sarkozy in a squeaker, with just 52% of the vote. At his victory speech Hollande said, “Austerity can no longer be inevitable!” On Monday, the CAC-40 Index traded relatively flat with French sovereign debt yields remaining cautiously stable.

“We think markets are waiting to see what policies Hollande immediately pursues as part of his growth plan,” Signorelli says. “Parliamentary elections in June will determine how much influence Hollande will have in passing such ideas into law.”

Hollande’s biggest fight will be with Merkel, largely seen as the captain of the eurozone’s sinking ship. Her Christian Democrats (CDU) party was defeated in the Schleswig-Holstein elections. The CDU-Free Democrats (FDP) ruling coalition suffered its worst poll since 1950, garnering a combined 39.1% (30.4% for CDU, 8.4% for FDP). Meanwhile, the left wing Social Democrats (SPD) & the Greens earned a combined 43.6% of the vote and are expected to form a new coalition government with the Danish-speaking SSW party. As a result of the routing, the SPD will now control more state governments than the Merkel’s party does.

“If the SPD & Greens are ready, with Francois Hollande, to discuss an economic growth compact for Europe, then the FDP’s tax cutting ideas would be a welcome addition to their platform. Therefore, progress on such talks would be very positive for Germany and Europe,” Signorelli says.

Meanwhile, austerity got a crop full of rotten tomatoes chucked its way in Greece. Their two biggest parties, New Democracy & Pasok, failed to get 40% of the vote. “Odds of Greece leaving the euro are somewhere between 50-75%; we see those odds at one in three,” Signorelli says.

The overwhelming majority of the electorate voted for parties in support of staying within the euro. The electoral rebuke was clearly against the anti-growth austerity demands from Berlin and Brussels, which have plunged Greece’s economy into a depression.

The leftist Syriza Party of Greece, which had characterized austerity policies of the current government as serving the interest of bankers, oligarchs and plutocrats at the expense of ordinary Greeks ended up leap-frogging Pasok for second place. Syriza would cancel the Greek bailout agreements and presumably negotiate from scratch. But its leader Alexis Tsipras doesn’t have much of a growth agenda if his rhetoric about taxing the rich is any indication, Signorelli notes. “We could see Syriza partnering with the right-leaning New Democracy Party, which has also promised to renegotiate past bailout deals with Brussels.”

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