加载中…实盘日记66——高价买消费龙头不是价值投资
(2012-04-12 20:35:27)| 分类： 用实盘解 |
当下买入消费品龙头并非上策
……陈宏杰博客
老陈固执的认为价值派之精髓，在于两点，好公司+好价格，这与市场派（老陈将技术定义为风险控制与交易策略，为避免混乱，将技术人士划归市场派）的观点无异，可能分歧只在于侧重略有差异。好公司和好价格，孰轻孰重，因人而异。但有一些概念虽然模糊，却是泾渭分明。比如好企业，必然ROA、ROE及其增速优秀、现金流充足、定价权瞩目、市占率高企……大概就这些基本指标。就这些指标，我们很容易发现近几年YUM（KFC上家）显然优于仍旧在次按泥沼中挣扎的金融股票（比如AIG）。但巴爷买可口可乐、买沃尔玛，我们就直白的去喝茅台吗？未免邯郸学步。以老头的饮食品味，KFC绝对不会惹他讨厌，巴爷一直以喜欢樱桃可乐，暗示其可乐情节。其实，他早年享用的是YUM的百事，后改，可乐无法更上层楼似乎与巴爷坚持反对其延展业务有关。但去岁年报巴爷弃KFC之类不取，却拆资50亿美刀入股美国银行。邯郸学步者于是大乐，噢，价格非常便宜时的好企业（当然指以往的好，当时一定是衰，不然价格就不可能好了）与价钱不菲的优异企业，原来还是要选前者啊。于是，没喝上便宜茅台的，中国的银行股拥趸们又找到了一剂强力安慰剂，买银行股啊，多价值。陈宏杰博客
程式发现一个BUG，可能需要暂停交易一次，账户经过一次结算，结算前数据见《实盘日记45——月报》。
| 初值 | $500,000.00 | |||||||
| 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | |
| 2011/12/09 | $500,000.00 | |||||||
| 2012/01/09 | $534,078.11 | 6.82% | 6.82% | 2012/02/09 | $594,834.48 | 0.31% | 18.97% | |
| 2012/01/13 | $567,456.78 | 6.25% | 13.49% | 2012/02/10 | $595,200.12 | 0.06% | 19.04% | |
| 2012/01/14 | $569,887.18 | 0.43% | 13.98% | 2012/02/13 | $595,680.96 | 0.08% | 19.14% | |
| 2012/01/16 | $569,915.62 | 0.00% | 13.98% | 2012/02/14 | $602,347.20 | 1.12% | 20.47% | |
| 2012/01/17 | $569,963.76 | 0.01% | 13.99% | 2012/02/15 | $603,495.48 | 0.19% | 20.70% | |
| 2012/01/18 | $570,195.56 | 0.04% | 14.04% | 2012/02/16 | $603,797.88 | 0.05% | 20.76% | |
| 2012/01/19 | $570,910.56 | 0.13% | 14.18% | 2012/02/17 | $604,273.24 | 0.08% | 20.85% | |
| 2012/01/20 | $572,462.31 | 0.27% | 14.49% | 2012/02/18 | $611,148.23 | 1.14% | 22.23% | |
| 2012/01/21 | $575,101.00 | 0.46% | 15.02% | 2012/02/20 | $611,278.46 | 0.02% | 22.26% | |
| 2012/01/23 | $575,214.13 | 0.02% | 15.04% | 2012/02/21 | $611,665.93 | 0.06% | 22.33% | |
| 2012/01/24 | $577,350.87 | 0.37% | 15.47% | 2012/02/22 | $611,709.13 | 0.01% | 22.34% | |
| 2012/01/25 | $577,808.39 | 0.08% | 15.56% | 2012/02/23 | $635,685.13 | 3.92% | 27.14% | |
| 2012/01/27 | $584,651.54 | 1.18% | 16.93% | 2012/02/24 | $635,858.40 | 0.03% | 27.17% | |
| 2012/01/28 | $585,197.78 | 0.09% | 17.04% | 2012/02/27 | $659,790.20 | 3.76% | 31.96% | |
| 2012/01/30 | $586,052.78 | 0.15% | 17.21% | 2012/02/28 | $659,833.40 | 0.01% | 31.97% | |
| 2012/01/31 | $586,248.68 | 0.03% | 17.25% | 2012/02/29 | $660,481.40 | 0.10% | 32.10% | |
| 2012/02/01 | $586,921.75 | 0.11% | 17.38% | 2012/03/01 | $663,717.24 | 0.49% | 32.74% | |
| 2012/02/02 | $590,297.15 | 0.58% | 18.06% | 2012/03/02 | $664,235.64 | 0.08% | 32.85% | |
| 2012/02/03 | $590,997.98 | 0.12% | 18.20% | 2012/03/05 | $667,006.35 | 0.42% | 33.40% | |
| 2012/02/04 | $591,848.33 | 0.14% | 18.37% | 2012/03/06 | $667,177.82 | 0.03% | 33.44% | |
| 2012/02/06 | $591,982.60 | 0.02% | 18.40% | 2012/03/07 | $670,004.86 | 0.42% | 34.00% | |
| 2012/02/07 | $592,634.84 | 0.11% | 18.53% | 2012/03/08 | $670,134.46 | 0.02% | 34.03% | |
| 2012/02/08 | $593,025.00 | 0.07% | 18.61% | 2012/03/09 | $670,350.93 | 0.03% | 34.07% | |
| 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | |
| 2012/03/12 | $670,369.20 | 0.00% | 34.07% | 2012/04/10 | $691,132.55 | 0.10% | 38.23% | |
| 2012/03/13 | $671,526.04 | 0.17% | 34.31% | 2012/04/11 | $693,813.11 | 0.39% | 38.76% | |
| 2012/03/14 | $671,592.43 | 0.01% | 34.32% | 2012/04/12 | $694,014.12 | 0.03% | 38.80% | |
| 2012/03/15 | $671,627.09 | 0.01% | 34.33% | |||||
| 2012/03/16 | $671,764.95 | 0.02% | 34.35% | |||||
| 2012/03/20 | $671,809.01 | 0.01% | 34.36% | |||||
| 2012/03/21 | $671,933.26 | 0.02% | 34.39% | |||||
| 2012/03/22 | $673,073.97 | 0.17% | 34.61% | |||||
| 2012/03/23 | $674,104.92 | 0.15% | 34.82% | |||||
| 2012/03/26 | $674,563.95 | 0.07% | 34.91% | |||||
| 2012/03/28 | $675,269.40 | 0.10% | 35.05% | |||||
| 2012/03/29 | $675,963.96 | 0.10% | 35.19% | |||||
| 2012/03/30 | $679,369.53 | 0.50% | 35.87% | |||||
| 2012/04/02 | $681,104.00 | 0.26% | 36.22% | |||||
| 2012/04/04 | $687,197.20 | 0.89% | 37.44% | |||||
| 2012/04/07 | $690,405.38 | 0.47% | 38.08% | |||||
| 2012/04/09 | $690,425.57 | 0.00% | 38.09% |
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
|
Price |
Profit |
|
2318106 |
2012.04.11 09:56 |
sell |
eurusd |
1.31337 |
1.31137 |
2012.04.11 15:05 |
1.31137 |
20.13 |
|
2318113 |
2012.04.11 10:02 |
sell |
eurusd |
1.31537 |
1.31137 |
2012.04.11 15:05 |
1.31137 |
40.27 |
|
2318440 |
2012.04.11 10:00 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59154 |
1.58954 |
2012.04.11 12:22 |
1.58954 |
10.07 |
|
2318448 |
2012.04.11 10:02 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59354 |
1.58954 |
2012.04.11 12:22 |
1.58954 |
20.13 |
|
2329553 |
2012.04.11 14:59 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.59098 |
1.59298 |
2012.04.12 05:49 |
1.59298 |
10.04 |
|
2329555 |
2012.04.11 15:47 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58898 |
1.59298 |
2012.04.12 05:49 |
1.59298 |
20.09 |
|
2341313 |
2012.04.11 18:11 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.31010 |
1.31410 |
2012.04.12 05:30 |
1.31410 |
40.18 |
|
2369159 |
2012.04.12 07:31 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.31212 |
1.31612 |
2012.04.12 11:31 |
1.31612 |
40.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23 664.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Closed P/L: |
23 664.12 |
|
|
Open Trades: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
|
Price |
Profit |
|
2318640 |
2012.04.11 10:02 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59276 |
1.59226 |
|
1.59434 |
-15.86 |
|
2372153 |
2012.04.12 08:32 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59378 |
1.59178 |
|
1.59434 |
-2.81 |
|
2372216 |
2012.04.12 08:32 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59457 |
1.59257 |
|
1.59434 |
2.31 |
|
2318645 |
2012.04.12 08:33 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59476 |
1.59226 |
|
1.59434 |
4.21 |
|
2372157 |
2012.04.12 10:35 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59578 |
1.59178 |
|
1.59434 |
7.23 |
|
2372221 |
2012.04.12 10:40 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59657 |
1.59257 |
|
1.59434 |
22.38 |
|
2372316 |
2012.04.12 10:40 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59676 |
1.59226 |
|
1.59434 |
48.57 |
|
2318685 |
2012.04.11 10:02 |
buy |
usdjpy |
80.827 |
81.227 |
|
80.870 |
2.66 |
|
2384061 |
2012.04.12 12:37 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.31504 |
1.31904 |
|
1.31469 |
-3.51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65.18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Floating P/L: |
65.18 |
|
|
Working Orders: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
Market Price |
|
|
|
2331117 |
2012.04.11 15:47 |
buy limit |
gbpusd |
1.58698 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59434 |
Buy.3 |
|
2378856 |
2012.04.12 10:35 |
sell limit |
gbpusd |
1.59778 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59403 |
Sell.3 |
|
2379014 |
2012.04.12 10:40 |
sell limit |
gbpusd |
1.59857 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59403 |
Sell.3 |
|
2379023 |
2012.04.12 10:40 |
sell limit |
gbpusd |
1.59876 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59403 |
Sell.4 |
|
2318686 |
2012.04.11 10:02 |
buy limit |
usdjpy |
80.627 |
0.000 |
|
80.893 |
Buy.2 |
|
2384064 |
2012.04.12 12:37 |
buy limit |
eurusd |
1.31304 |
0.00000 |
|
1.31498 |
Buy.2 |
|
Summary: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deposit/Withdrawal: |
670 350.93 |
Credit Facility: |
0.00 |
|
|
|
||
|
Closed Trade P/L: |
23 664.12 |
Floating P/L: |
65.18 |
Margin: |
672.00 |
|||
|
Balance: |
694 014.12 |
Equity: |
694 079.30 |
Free Margin: |
693 411.53 |
|||
链接
前四十篇
实盘日记第一篇 《实盘日记⑴——刺猬》
实盘月报二月篇 《实盘日记23——月报》
实盘月报三月篇 《实盘日记45——月报》
实盘月报四月篇 《实盘日记63——月报》
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