KERNEN: But yet you were early with the weapon--you know, you knew that
these--all these structured products, that sooner or later there would be a
day of reckoning. The other thing I was thinking when you were talking
about where we haven't gotten to those levels in--that we saw in the '70s,
but as a person that epitomizes Graham and Dodd type investing, what--
we've had a long, secular bull since the early '80s. We have not gotten to
the
extended part of, you know, where you get dividend yields at 4 percent, you
get a priced earnings multiple that it--drops well below 10. When now that
we see inflation in commodities like they are, is this the beginning of that

cycle where we do get to a really stretched valuation on, I guess you'd call
it
a secular bear?

BUFFETT: Yeah, Joe, I don't know the answer. It's always a possibility. And-
-but, you know, I've never really been able to predict the stock market. I--
when things get very cheap, I know it. When they get very high, I know it.
And in between, I really don't know much about what's going to happen.

对投资很关键的一句话！

——“贵了，便宜了，我都明白；唯有在中间，我是无从判断”