印度《商业标准报》10月14日发表Subir Roy的文章,题目是How to handle negative Chinese vibes(如何处理对中国的负面情绪)。文章还有个副题:If there is a single weakness that China is rapidly developing, it is hubris(如果说还有中国什么正在快速膨胀的缺点,那就是傲慢)。文章摘要如下(英语原文附后):
印度与中国之间的负面情绪在上升。如果这导致更大的军费支出,从而不可避免挤占减贫资源,那将酿成灾难。至于两国政府,都在设法淡化事态,印度政府坚称边界一直“很平静”及有办法应对入侵。
但印度许多媒体和政治评论不太可能收敛。尽管政府意图良好,但当前的情绪似乎造成了伤害。一家印度大报最近称,“北京提议在印度学校开设中文课,并让印度学生到中国交流学习,而新德里一口否决了该建议。”
报道引述“消息人士”称这出于两个理由。首先,这是印度对中国向查谟和克什米尔地区印度人发放特殊签证的反应。其次,中国似乎以此扩大其“软实力”,增强影响力,把文化当成工具,“以学语言的孔子学院为幌子”。
而对印度人来说,懂汉语十分重要,原因有二。两国之间的贸易飞速增长,而中国占有盈余。其次,要想了解敌人就必须懂对方的语言。
此外,语言对民间和学界的交流、推动长远理解十分重要。无论是巴基斯坦的独立评论人还是对印度怀有浓厚兴趣的中国学者都是如此。如果外国人愿意花钱请我们学中文,不抓住这个机会那就太傻了。
为什么最近事态升温?最近的一个大事是,中国人未能阻止亚洲开发银行向印度提供一项包括在阿鲁纳恰尔邦项目的贷款。印度全力争取国际外交支持,中国人丢了面子。
此外,专家们将中国对印度的敌意追溯到印美核协议,视之为印度进入美国势力范围的象征。这对中国不是个好消息。美国外交学会某专家说,“美国竭力与世界最大民主国家巩固关系,其目的是抗衡中国”。另一位专家说,布什政府“希望结交作为亚洲崛起之星的印度,这样有助于对付中国”。无怪乎中国作出反应,对印度逐渐变得咄咄逼人。
印度的反应呢?它应该学学中国人,从长计议。中国几乎在各个方面领先于印度:GDP、脱贫、识字率、平均寿命、高等教育和科研,或许软件出口是个例外。如果说中国暴露出唯一的弱点,那就是骄傲自大。
就中国长期而言,印度必须韬光养晦、积聚力量,希望条件成熟、两国达成中国1988年提出、而印方拒绝的协议,接受现状。
Subir Roy: How to handle negative
Chinese vibes
If there is a single weakness that
China is rapidly developing, it is hubris
Subir Roy / New Delhi October 14, 2009, 0:00 IST
Negative vibes between India and
China are growing. It would be calamitous if this leads to greater
military spending which will inevitably take away resources from
fighting poverty. For their part, both the governments have sought
to underplay rising temperatures, with the Indian government
asserting that the border has been the “most peaceful” and there is
machinery to sort out incursions.
But significant sections of the media and political opinion in
India are unlikely to restrain themselves. A PTI report on foreign
minister S M Krishna making the above assertion begins with the
words, “Notwithstanding the incidents of Chinese aggression…” Poor
Krishna seems to have been wasting his breath! A recent RSS
statement says the Centre has adopted a “dilly-dallying attitude
towards resolution of the disputed … border with China,” and
reminds the Centre of the 1962 parliamentary resolution which
“talked about taking back the entire land captured by China ... We
should not leave even an inch of our land with China.”
Despite the government’s good intentions, the current mood appears
to be taking its toll. A recent front page report in a respected
Indian newspaper says, “Delhi has shot down Beijing’s proposals to
teach Chinese in schools here and take Indian students to China
under exchange programmes.” Two reasons are cited for this by the
report quoting “sources”. One is that it is a response to the
Chinese practice of stapling visas, instead of stamping then, onto
passports of Indians from Jammu and Kashmir.
The other is that it seems a Chinese design to spread its “soft
power”, widening its influence using culture as a tool,
“camouflaging the Confucius Institute in the language proposal.”
And what is this horrible institute? It is like the American
Centre. Even the Canadian Security Intelligence has doubts on the
centre, saying in a declassified intelligence report, hold your
breath, “China wants the world to have positive feelings towards
China and things Chinese, which … (is a sign of) desire for soft
power.”
There are two good reasons why greater knowledge of Mandarin is
vital for Indians. Trade between the two is galloping, with the
balance in China’s favour. Knowledge of language is vital in
cracking a market. Second, knowledge of language is essential in
getting to know your enemy. China, Japan, Korea are all closed
entities unless you know the respective languages.
Besides, it is important to build bridges with civil society and
academia, irrespective of current country to country relations, to
promote long term understanding. This is as true of independent
commentators in the Pakistani media as Chinese academics who have a
deep interest in India studies. If the Chinese are willing to spend
good money for us to learn their language then it will be
monumentally stupid not to grasp the opportunity.
Why have temperatures risen lately? A recent milestone is the
failed Chinese attempt to prevent an Asian Development Bank $ 2.9
billion country loan to India as it included $ 60 million for a
project in Arunachal Pradesh. India went all out to muster
international diplomatic support— it could hardly have done
otherwise— and the Chinese lost face. They hate doing so and India
should expect and react in a measured way to Chinese sniping to
inflict retaliatory humiliation on India.
But Chinese animosity towards India predates that misadventure of
theirs and runs deeper. Experts trace it to the India-US nuclear
deal which they see as taking India into the American orbit. This
cannot be good news for China. Emerging China takes its global role
seriously (witness the show of might at the 60th anniversary of its
revolution) and will not tolerate an alternative pole in
Asia.
Says an expert with the Council for Foreign Relations of the US,
“The United States is trying to cement its relationship with the
world’s largest democracy in order to counterbalance China.” Say
another: the Bush administration is “hoping that latching onto
India as the rising star of Asia could help them handle China.”
Unsurprisingly, China, in response, is slowly upping the ante with
India.
India’s response? It should take a leaf out of the Chinese book and
play long term. It has to build its economic power as diplomatic
and military power are built on that base. China leads India in
virtually every respect— GDP, the fight againstpoverty, literacy,
life expectancy, higher education and research— with perhaps one
exception, software exports. Against this, if there is a single
weakness which China is rapidly developing, it is hubris.
India must lie low in the short and medium term, build its strength
(only a confident nation can strike deals) and hope that conditions
in both countries will be ripe for striking the deal which Deng
Xiaoping had offered in 1988 but which India had declined—
accepting the status quo, the line of actual control, as the
international border between the two countries.
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《建国大业》让历史为现实服务
(2009-10-17
08:08:22)

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