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沪港通打开资本项目有限开放的新通道
(2014-11-19 15:18:10)
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钱军沪港通上海高级金融学院saifnpr |
11月14日，National Public Radio Morning
Edition栏目，播出了钱军教授有关沪港通问题的观点。
To Lure Investors And Move Money, China
Links Two Stock Markets
Investors in Shanghai's stock market will for the first time
on Monday be able to invest directly across the border in Hong
Kong's Hang Seng stock exchange and vice versa.
The new system, called the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect,
will give foreign investors direct access to Shanghai's so-called A
shares, including many blue chip, state-owned companies.
China has strict currency controls, so it can manage both the
value of its currency, the renminbi, as well as protect its
economy. The government will cap total daily transactions between
the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges to a little more than $2
billion in each direction.
Jun Qian, who teaches at the Shanghai Advanced
Institute of Finance, says the change is inevitable as China tries
to build an efficient financial system and internationalize the
renminbi.
"Money has to come in and out of China much more
freely than now," says Qian. "It's going to come gradually and the
Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect is a little pipe in that
opening."
One reason China wants to open a pipe is to help bring order
to Shanghai's stock market, which, years ago, one Chinese economist
described as being "worse than a casino."
The Shanghai market is driven by insider trading and
speculation, says Oliver Rui, a finance professor at Shanghai's
China Europe International Business School. Therefore, it doesn't
serve one of a stock exchange's crucial functions: channeling
investment to the most promising and innovative companies that
create value and help drive an economy.
Rui says the hope is foreign institutional investors will
bring their expertise to Shanghai's market and help raise investing
standards to international levels. Rui says people's future living
standards here may depend on it.
"We are still facing the risk of falling into a middle income
trap," Rui says, referring to the fear that China's growth will
stall and the vast majority of the country will never become
wealthy. "Without a well-functioning capital market, we may not be
able to become a real, developed country."
By permitting Chinese to invest across the border in Hong
Kong, China's government is permitting more renminbi to circulate
globally. Over time, that will help China internationalize its
currency and eventually help establish it as a reserve
currency.
China's leaders want more global influence on
everything from the pricing of commodities to a say in how the
rules of world finance are written. To that, Qian says, other big
economies respond this way: "China, sorry, but basically your
financial system is closed. It's separated. You're not a real
member of the global community."
China hopes as the renminbi spreads around the world, the
country's financial power will more closely reflect the size of its
economy.
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