xueli:UN best framework to address NK nuke issue
(2018-01-22 05:37:29)
标签:
xuelinortheastasiadiplomacydenuclearizationpriority |
分类: 东北亚(日本、韩国、朝鲜)研 |
Alongside China's rise, neighborhood diplomacy has
been a priority in its foreign diplomacy. Northeast Asian nations
are an important part of this strategy. Throughout Northeast Asia,
economic development has long been blighted by political and
security conundrums. Formulating a strategy targeting this region
not only helps solve the
Given the complexities of this region, China's Northeast Asia
policy consists of approaches toward Russia, Mongolia,
the
Among the Northeast Asian nations, Russia is the only comprehensive
strategic partner of China, and the two ushered in a new stage of
the partnership in May 2014. Pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy
is a common choice of major developing countries. Though Beijing
and Moscow have reached a high degree of security cooperation, they
are not allies, nor do they intend to forge an alliance in the
future. Becoming rivals against the world's sole superpower and its
allies is a strategic mistake, as well as a violation of China's
principle of maintaining strategic friendly relations with the US
since Beijing adopted its reform and opening-up policy in
1978.
In addition, alignment means the formation of a military alliance,
but who would be in the dominant position is a thorny issue. Again,
Moscow's strategic alertness toward Beijing will not fade even if
they ally with each other. And since a large-scale conflict between
China and the US can be primarily caused by the Taiwan question,
the alliance between China and Russia cannot prevent such a
conflict from taking place.
The Yamato people, the dominant native ethnic group of Japan, hold
a less usual philosophical view of seeing others as the center,
which determines that their diplomatic principle of teaming with
the most powerful country has not changed for thousands of years.
It is expected that in the foreseeable future, Tokyo will seek to
return to a state of normal country through a deepened alliance
with Washington by using the excuse of the "China
threat."
Therefore, Beijing does not need to pin high hopes on its Tokyo
policy. Maintaining economic and cultural ties and readjusting
bilateral ties until the two sides see a larger gap in strength
might be the practical path for now.
The key to the security of Northeast Asia lies in the Korean
Peninsula, and in particular the North. It is worth noting that a
secluded, backward North Korea has blocked the development of three
provinces in Northeast China, exerting a rather negative influence
that may well go beyond the advantages brought about by the
so-called buffer zone. It's a pity that the stalemate, one of the
multiple legacies of the Cold War, still exists on the peninsula,
and the later-developed nuclear issue has complicated the
scenario.
Constant security threats from the US and South Korea, drastically
reduced support due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, China's
reform and opening-up policy and the establishment of diplomatic
ties with the South have all prompted the North to develop nuclear
weapons to defend its national security.
Washington holds that Pyongyang has the intent to strike the US
mainland and therefore it must not possess the capacity to conduct
nuclear strikes. Its bottom line lies in excluding the possibility
of being hit by the North.
North Korea is capable of striking China but has no intention to do
so. But as China objects to the deployment of the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system in South Korea, out of
consideration that it might break the strategic balance between
Beijing and Washington, it has every reason to oppose the
development of nuclear weapons that may threaten its security
landscape. China must give greater priority to the goal of a
nuclear-free Korean Peninsula than preventing war. But over the
past year, China actually put prevention of war before
denuclearization, which was an important condition for the North to
develop nuclear weapons.
However, Beijing cannot persuade Pyongyang to give up nuclear
weapons on its own. Now that North Korea's security concerns must
be addressed, China's influence is not enough to make it abandon
its nuclear plans, and joint maneuvering from China and the US may
further provoke the isolated nation to take risks. A relatively
feasible solution might be for the UN Security Council to adopt a
resolution to render security guarantees and economic assistance to
the North on the condition that it will give up its nuclear
development plan.
Contradictions and lack of policy coordination among major powers
provide the external conditions for Pyongyang to develop nuclear
weapons. Consequently, as long as they reach consensus that the
North must give up nuclear weapons but has the right to security
guarantees, a UN Security Council resolution will be the most
effective approach to the Korean Peninsula issue.
Beijing should encourage Seoul to play a bigger role in solving
this issue while preventing their ties from being shocked by it.
The