xueli:Are current issues a sign of EU disintegration?
(2017-01-14 20:42:33)
标签:
xuelieudisintegrationpossibility |
分类: 欧洲研究 |
Europe is dabbling in troubled waters. The global
financial crisis that initially hit Wall Street took a bigger toll
on Europe than on the US. While the US economy is already on track
to recover, Europe's is still struggling to deal with the debt
crisis. Misfortune never comes singly. Over the past year, Europe
has gone through a lot of suffering - the refugee crisis, terrorist
attacks, the emergence of separatist forces and the rise of
populist political parties. The UK surprisingly voted to leave the
EU in June, and an Italian constitution referendum failed in early
December. A rising number of people in Germany and France - two
core EU economies - also have doubts over the
union.
Inevitably amid these problems, people start to ask what is wrong
in Europe, an area that has long posed as a global leader in
regional integration, climate change and development assistance. If
this rumbles on, will the EU still exist? And is a disintegrating
EU probable?
Answering those questions requires clarification of the causes of
the varied chaos in Europe and whether they have shaken the
foundations of the EU.
Subprime bonds created from the securitization of individual home
loans in the US were a major trigger of the 2008 global financial
crisis. Those falling victim to the crisis were mainly borrowers
who couldn't afford to pay off the debt, mortgage lenders and
financial institutions, particularly investment banks, that
invented the derivatives.
By comparison, Europe was mired in a sovereign debt crisis in which
government debt burdens exceeded their bearable limits so as to
result in the risk of debt defaults. Governments issue debt to fund
social welfare spending and infrastructure projects as well as to
support small and medium-sized businesses. Since its launch, the
euro has been known for its high creditworthiness and steady
appreciation, enabling countries in the eurozone to issue
euro-denominated debt at a very low cost. A multitude of government
debt was therefore issued, and countries whose economic
fundamentals were underperforming turned out to be heavily reliant
on government debt. However, the expenditures to finance the bonds
were issued for social welfare outlays or funds allocated to
infrastructure or preferential loans offered to small and
medium-sized enterprises which could barely generate direct
economic benefits or only yield low
returns.
These debts could only be balanced if the economies were well
developed and consequently could generate enough taxes. It wasn't a
problem when the economic situation was good, as old debts could be
replaced by issuing new debt. But when the US subprime crisis
spread through Europe, the interest on the European sovereign debt
soared, pushing up the cost of new debt. Still, it seemed difficult
to cut down on the various expenditures, and some countries inside
the eurozone approached their limit to repay the interest and
principle on their loans. They had no choice but to default on the
loans, unless they could secure special bailouts. Portugal, Italy,
Ireland, Greece and Spain, known as the PIIGS of the eurozone were
economically weaker, and thus were among the first to take a hit in
the debt crisis.
A common-sense prescription to pull Europe out of the debt crisis
was increase income and cut spending. French and German governments
were divided on which was more urgent before German government's
advocacy for fiscal stringency was agreed on. After all, the PIGS
of the eurozone couldn't find a better option factoring in the poor
global economic fundamentals. Naturally social welfare outlay
topped the list of spending cuts.
The reason behind heavily indebted European countries was due to
the far greater role their governments had played in adjusting
income distribution and economic activities than that of the US.
Also globalization led to the hollowing out of European industries
and over reliance on services, which rendered those countries
helpless to pay back loans.
In addition, global allocation of industrial chains rendered people
in manufacturing, agriculture or mining jobless and induced
dissatisfaction from countries that offered rescue to others. The
sudden influx of refugees and frequent terrorism attacks jointly
pushed the rise of populist and right-wing
forces.
But we need to note that the EU's comparative advantage lies in its
sectors of services, finance, high-tech and advanced manufacturing,
which only gain strength being more globalized. And traditional
manufacturing is unlikely to shift back given limited profit
margins.
In addition, the contradiction of a united currency without a
fiscal union has left Europe unable to come up with forceful fiscal
policy that corresponds to monetary policy. But still, replacing a
nation's own currency with the euro is considered much easier than
withdrawing from the euro currency union to restore own domestic
currency.
Although forces of xenophobia further developed in Germany and
France, they have not become the political mainstream, and the
countries' faith in European integration has remained unchanged.
While issues brought by immigration would make people reflect on
the negative impact from diversified cultures, the overall attitude
toward cultural diversification is positive. The EU is unlikely to
fall apart as long as France and Germany are determined to keep
their faith.
Last, the UK's decision will have limited effect on European
integration. As per the UK's experience, exit is difficult and
costly. Further, other countries still hope to join the EU.
In this respect, the foundation of European integration is not
shaken, but these chaotic incidents and setbacks have provided an
opportunity for all sides to renegotiate and balance
interests.