美国经济展望

                                        洪平凡  

                                            2012.04.18

节选自2月17日在纽约大学法学院中美资本市场论坛上的发言：“美国和中国宏观经济展望”(参见前一篇)，英文原文附后。

美国经济复苏缓慢，缺乏活力，但没有象日本和一些欧洲国家那样陷入第二次衰退。

最近，居民消费支出有所改善，特别是耐用消费品支出，如汽车。这在一定程度上反映了前一段时间被压抑的需求，也反映了消费者信心的上升和消费信贷状况的好转。

商业投资一直是经济复苏主要驱动力，尤其是资本设备和软件的开支。

出口量的增长在2010年复苏强劲，但自2011年以来不断放缓。

政府开支为早期的复苏提供了支持，但最近对GDP增长的贡献转为负的，一些财政刺激措施逐步结束。
 
劳动力市场一直是美国经济的软肋。与第二次世界大战以来的各次经济衰退相比，2008-2009年经济衰退对就业的影响是最大的，约8万人失去工作。而就业的复苏也是第二次世界大战以来最弱的。

在20世纪50年代和60年代经济衰退之后，只需要一年左右劳动力市场即可恢复衰退期间的失业；在70年代和80年代，需要一年半至两年；90年代和2000年初，需要三年左右的时间。而这次可能会需要6至7年才能完全恢复就业。

2011年底和今年初，劳动力市场上取得了一些令人鼓舞的进展。在2011年11月至2012年2月期间，私营部门就业人数平均每月增加约25万，当然，3月份有所回落，只增加了12万。

失业率也从几个月前的9％下降到目前的8.2％。两年前的高峰是10％。


然而，劳动力市场远没有恢复到正常状态。最近就业的改善很大一部分反映了裁员在下降，而并不完全是新增雇员。失业率下降的部分原因是劳动力参与率下降的结果。很多失业者退出了劳动力市场，参与率下降到几十年来的最低水平。

一个比较严重的的问题是长期失业者的比例很高。失业六个月以上人数占失业总人数40％以上，而这一指标在二战之后任何其它的经济衰退中的峰值是25％。工人失业时间越长，越难找到工作。长期失业不但不利失业的工人，也不利于宏观经济的生产率。

美国的房地产业在金融危机中遭受很大打击，已衰退了六年。以 Case-Shiller 20个城市的房价指数衡量，房价已经从2006年峰值下降了34％，回到2003年的水平。甚至比20世纪30年代的大萧条还严重，当时房价下跌了30％。

最近一段时间，房屋销售一直处于缓慢上升趋势，新建房屋指标也有所回升。在抵押贷款低利率的支持下，如果劳动力市场继续改善，房地产也可能会在2012年见底，但复苏将是一个缓慢的过程。

在宏观经济政策方面，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率保持在0至0.25％，直到2014年。美联储仍然在继续实施”扭曲“操作：在卖出短期国债的同时购买等量的长期国债，直到2012年中为止。之后，美联储是否会推出另一轮的量化宽松（QE）还不确定。我个人认为不会，除非欧洲的主权债务危机失控给美国和世界经济带来巨大影响。

在过去两年进行的两轮量化宽松政策之后，美联储的资产负债表规模已经增加了三倍多，从2008年的8000亿美元，到目前的3万亿美元左右。鉴于通货膨胀已经在 2％左右，同时，美联储也认为量化宽松政策对改善就业的作用有限，新一轮量化宽松的效果可能弊大于利。

财政政策面临更多的不确定因素，与大选之年有关。

美国财政政策已经从扩张性转为紧缩性。过去几年实施的各项刺激计划在2012年基本退出。国防开支也有所下降。扣除通货膨胀之后政府的实际支出预计在2012年下降2％，明年继续下降。

不确定性问题是，国会在2011年底为提高政府债务上限而达成的协议中规定的“政府支出自动削减”机制是否会在2013年1月开始启动。除非在此之前国会可以达成一系列削减开支和增加税收的协议，否则这一机制将自动生效。

此外，工资税削减2％和紧急失业保险待遇的措施虽然已经延长至2012年底，这两个项目是否会在2013年初突然结束，还是逐步缓慢退出，也不确定。布什政府时期制定的减税政策在2013年以后是否会继续延期也不确定。

这些财政政策的不确定性，直接影响商业投资计划。如果以上这些政策在2012底全部退出，美国的财政政策将会发生“悬崖”效应，给美国经济带来很大的负面冲击。

美国决策者正面临两大挑战：如何增强短期内的复苏，如何确保财政在长期的可持续性。又如何保证短期和长期的政策不矛盾。

预计美国经济在2012年增长略高于2％。

Economic outlook for the US

          Pingfan Hong

          2012.04.18

(Excerpt from a speech entitled “Economic prospects for the US and China”, presented at the U.S.-China Capital Market Forum, Law School of New York University, April 17, 2012) 

The recovery in the US has been anemic, but has avoided a double-dip recession, unlike Japan and quite a few economies in Europe.  

Most recently, consumer spending has improved, particularly on durable goods, reflecting an improvement in consumer confidence and a better credit condition.

Business investment has been a key driver for the recovery, particularly, capital spending on equipment and software.

Real exports registered a strong recovery in 2010, but have since moderated.

Government spending provided support in the early stage of the recovery, but has declined recently, as the fiscal stimulus packages phased out. 

The labour market has been the Achilles heel. 8 million jobs were lost during the recession, the worst in any recessions since World War Two.

In this round, it will probably take 6 years or longer for the employment to fully recover, compared with 3 years maximum in the past recessions.    

Some encouraging signs appeared in the labour market in late 2011 and early 2012.

Payroll employment in private sector increased about 250,000 jobs per month, but the increased decelerated to only 120,000 jobs in March.

The unemployment rate also declined notably, to 8.2 per cent. 

However, a large part of the improvement in the payroll employment reflected a decline in layoff, instead of an increase in hiring. Part of the decline in the unemployment rate has also been the result of a decline in labour force participation rate, which is at the lowest level in decades.

A big concern is the long-term unemployment. The unemployed for more than six months account for 40 percent of the total, compared with the maximum of 25 per cent in the past recessions. The long-term unemployment is detrimental not only to the individuals, but also to the productivity of the economy.         

The US housing sector has been in a slump for six years. House prices, as measured in the Case-Shiller 20-city index, have declined by 34 per cent from the peak of 2006, back to the level of 2003. This decline is even worse than in the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Most recently, home sales have been trending upward slightly, and so has been construction of new homes. With the support of low mortgage interest rate, and if the labour market continues to improve, it is possible that the housing sector may have defined its nadir, but the recovery will only be a slow process.

On the policy front, the US Fed has announced to keep the federal funds rate at 0 per cent until 2014. It is uncertain whether the Fed will launch another quantitative easing (QE). Personally, I don’t think so, unless the sovereign debt crisis in Europe goes out of control. 

With the two QE operations conducted in the past two years, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet has more than tripled, from $800 billion in 2008, to near $3 trillion. Given that the inflation arte is around 2 per cent, and the effects of the QE are limited to the improvement of employment, another round of QE operation will have more adverse effects than positive ones. 

More uncertainties are for fiscal policy, associated with the election year.

It is certain that fiscal policy has become more restrictive. Stimulus packages implemented in the past few years, such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and a few smaller spending packages (extension of unemployment benefits, COBRA healthcare benefits, state fiscal relief etc. totaling $640 billion) are phased out in 2012. Defense spending is also falling. Real government spending is expected to decline by 2 per cent in 2012 and more in 2013.

But uncertainty remains about the Automatic Spending Cut, which is scheduled to begin in January 2013, unless the Congress can work out a package of spending cuts and tax increases.

The 2 per cent payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits have been extended until the end of 2012. It is uncertain whether these two items will end abruptly in 2013, or phase out gradually. It is also uncertain about the extension of the tax cuts of the Bush Administration beyond 2013.

The US policymakers are facing two big challenges: how to strengthen the recovery in the short run, and how to ensure the fiscal sustainability in the longer run.

To meet the first challenge, the US administration has been trying to revitalize manufacturing and launched a plan to double the exports in five years. Some progress has been made, but the size of manufacturing and exports is too small relative to the whole economy to produce significant effects in the short run. A better alternative is to increase spending on rejuvenating the US infrastructure, which has long been in disrepair, but it is difficult get policymakers to agree on financing such investment.

To meet the second challenge, to bring the US public debt down to a sustainable level, will be even more difficult.    

In the outlook, we expect the US economy to grow by slightly above 2 per cent for 2012 and 2013.