No victors in fight over Okinawa base

       《东京和冲绳的博弈：谁将笑到最后》

       （本文刊登在《环球时报》英文版2015年9月25日）

By Da Zhigang Source:Global Times Published: 2015-9-24 18:30:11

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Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Okinawa Governor Takeshi Onaga on Tuesday took the argument over the relocation of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Last week, he announced he would take steps to revoke permissions for the landfill work involved in building a replacement base for the US military base off Henoko.
This move, which may come in October, indicates that consultations between Okinawa Prefecture and the central government were in vain and the relocation of the US base, a symbol of the Japan-US alliance, may be suspended again. The US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement that defines the legal position of US troops in Japan has also been hit hard.
Right now, the ruling coalition commands a majority in both houses of the Diet and controls the voting regardless of the public opinion.
At the circumstance, why did Onaga make such a bold decision that may offend the central government and disgrace the US? Is he aware of the costs of battling Tokyo and confronting the Japan-US alliance?
In fact, Onaga's decision came at a good time. At the November gubernatorial election, he promised to use all available means to block the construction of the relocation facility. Although it has been a while since then, he eventually fulfilled his promise.
Besides, last week many Japanese people protested against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's moves to force the controversial security bills through the Upper House. Onaga could use the public protests to gain sympathy.
There are three possible outcomes of Onaga's announcement. The central government may file a lawsuit as Japan's Local Autonomy Law regulates that the central government has the right to demand local governments to change their decisions. Many uncertainties remain in the case.
Tokyo may coerce Okinawa back into consultations by means of halting assistance for Okinawa's economic rejuvenation. In recent years, Okinawa has made remarkable progress in developing its tourism and food processing industry. But without development assistance and funding from the central government, slower economic development in Okinawa can trigger protests from some locals who make their living from the presence of the US forces. This is Onaga's Achilles' heel.
The US base relocation is based on an agreement between Japan and the US and has a bearing on Japan's national security. The bottom line of Tokyo is to consider the environment and people's general demands, and forge ahead with the relocation. In this case, it is unlikely that the Japanese government can suspend the construction work.
If the feud between Tokyo and Okinawa turns nasty, the Abe administration may take advantage of its majority in the parliament and even consider revising laws such as the Local Autonomy Law to reduce the authority of local governments on issues concerning national security. If so, this will not be pleasant for Onaga as the recent passing of controversial security bills has already set a precedent.
The battle between Tokyo and Okinawa could have multiple other repercussions.
First of all, the relocation of US military base will be postponed and this will impact the strategic realignment of US troops in Japan and the entire Asia-Pacific. Abe cannot turn a blind eye to pressure from the US military authorities.
Besides, the Abe administration, which is using the Japan-US alliance to help ease the restrictions on the right to exercise collective self-defense, will then face diplomatic pressure from Washington. Abe must remember that his predecessor Yukio Hatoyama resigned due to being unable to properly handle the discord over the relocations of US bases.
But as the feud lingers, Abe is being forced into a position that allows no easy compromise. If Abe gives ground, other prefectures with US bases will follow suit and hence add to the burden of the central government.
Moreover, the Okinawa case could easily prompt the rise of pacifist forces in Japan. As Abenomics brings more benefits to large companies and has had little impact on local economies, Abe has further dented his credibility and ruined his image, which will be a problem in the future.
All in all, Onaga may not be a winner in the strife between Okinawa and Tokyo, but Abe is not the victor either.
The author is director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies, Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn