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重磅好消息:“族群战争爆发的广义理论”被接受

(2015-04-16 14:16:28)
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军事

分类: 我自己的工作

重磅好消息:“族群战争爆发的广义理论”被接受

 

本人的“族群战争爆发的广义理论(The Onset of Ethnic War: A General Theory)”正式被社会学中的牛刊Sociological Theory(《社会学理论》)接受,估计今年内可以正式刊出。Sociological Theory是美国社会学学会旗下的刊物之一。该杂志2015年位列社会学SSCI刊物第五(2013年影响因子2.586)。从此,唐世平的作品覆盖社会科学的三个基础学科(政治学、经济学、社会学)。继续…..的节奏呀。

 

该文是我计划中的族群战争的广义理论三部曲的第一部份,也是我最近最重要的工作之一。本文也标志着中国学者对“族群政治和冲突”的研究进入世界领先水平。我希望,本文的发表将改变学界对族群政治的暴力化的研究的许多做法。

【我这样的文章是否一下子让中国的“社会学”界个感觉到压力呀?中国的社会学几乎无一例外是研究中国社会本身,具有普遍意义的研究极少。】

 

该文在方法论上,彻底实践了本人提出和提倡的“把因素和机制放在一个系统内考察”的方法论思路。

本文也是我最近的投稿最为顺利的一篇文章。一开始投到一个政治学的杂志,主编说不合适,直接desk-rejection了。之后,转投Sociological Theory结果,第一轮就拿到非常好的R&R拿到以下这样的评语,是不是立马感觉好呀?

 

R2(这位reviewer非常正面,几乎可以说是“热情洋溢”呀!)

Impressive paper, the state of the art in an important field where there has been much research for several decades. It is the best exemplar I know of how to build a theory of a complex process, with many mechanisms that interact and have effects that differ greatly depending on where they come in the sequence of time. Author has a masterful knowledge of existing research, and is very clear on strategic or theory-building flaws, as compared to more technical details of research methodology that occupy so much of the literature. Author is beautifully unpolemical, rising above the tendency to pit one's favorite factors against others, as in much of debates among rational choice/material interests theorizing vs. symbolic/identity/emotional theories. The paper has remarkable clarity in getting across both an improved theory of ethnic conflict, and how to build a theory where the world is truly complex and changing. 【这样的评语太让人乐不可支了,呵呵】

Nice examples of how static correlational analyses can be way off the mark when seen as time-dynamics: e.g. both economic development and democracy can retard the outbreak of ethnic conflict, but once it gets going, both can exacerbate and prolong it. And elections, in combination with other processes, can themselves mobilize groups to go on to violence.

……

I really enjoyed this paper: introducing a lot of clarity into an area where there has been lots of good previous research and theorizing, but hitherto without bringing it all together convincingly …… Important concluding point about need for more long-term data sets and analyses, so that the outcomes of ethnic wars and processes of de-escalation can also be grasped through the relevant comparisons. 【这说的是我们正在进行的“全球族群政治数据集”的建设】There remains a lot be done in this area, but this is a big step.”

 

R1 (这位reviewer比较批评性,但基本态度也是非常正面的)

This manuscript has many virtues as part of a larger intellectual project aimed at explaining the initiation of ethnic civil war. However, it also has many important flaws 【这位reviewer指出的问题其实没那么严重,但是,纠正这些问题总是有益的。】. It is not yet ready for publication, but with substantial revisions has promise of making a valuable contribution to the literature on ethnic civil war.

Let me start with the virtues. The opening criticisms of the quantitative literature (especially Collier et al.) are well-taken and useful, and the decision to build on the psychological approach of Horowitz/Kaufman/Petersen is a sensible starting point. I see the main contribution of this piece to be compiling the list of seven “master drivers,” and showing how many of the specific factors that have been suggested as causes of ethnic civil war, and many of the specific tactics used by ethnic elites, can be understood in terms of these “master drivers.” Another key insight is the way in which many of the causal factors that have been identified operate interactively—for example, the presence of resources such as oil are likely to spur ethnic conflict only if located in an area inhabited by a repressed or minority group. The concluding observations are eminently sensible.

 

顺带说一句:2013-2014年,我发表的英文文章不多。这背后的最重要原因是因为我的研究方向又发生了一次重大转变:如今,我主要(近2/3)的研究精力已经转向非国际政治领域。估计2015-16年将是一个新的发表喷发期,而且几乎都不是在国际政治领域。

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