按照当前的欧元兑美元汇率，Fed对ECB的资产负债表比率在1.11x，也就是说如果美联储不能与欧央行同步同量放大，欧元当前是高估了，高估比如来自昨天“穆迪警告下调美国AAA，众议院议长对达成预算协议“完全没信心”，原文如下：

（http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-expecting-850-billion-new-qe）

Last week we discussed what the expectations were for Draghi's OMT - approximately EUR250bn - which coincidentally provided cover for the rest of the year (conditionally) for the entire new issuance of the European Union. Based on EURUSD's recent exuberance - something we saw ahead of QE1 and QE2 - the market is now more than primed for some serious USD debasement. The current EURUSD of 1.2850 implies a Fed-to-ECB balance sheet ratio around 1.11x. If we assume the ECB wil not have to fire its conditional bazooka (of which is priced in 100% likelihood of EUR250bn), then the Fed is expected to conjure a monetization scheme of around USD580bn - anything less would be a disappointment to the market. However, if we assume the ECB will be doing it's bond-buying monetization thing  - as per the equity market's expectations - then the Fed will need to come to the table with a bag of swag around USD850bn in order to debase the USD just enough to regain some hope. It seems like the market has priced in a great deal of monetary policy exuberance  - especiallyconsidering how 'confident' consumers appear to be.

EURUSD vs Fed/ECB balance sheet 'expectations'

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120911_EURUSD_0.pngMarket Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" TITLE="【转载】The Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" />

and via Citi - the action of EURUSD leading up to QE1 and QE2 was positive only to be followed by the more significant sell-off...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120911_EURUSD1_0.pngMarket Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" TITLE="【转载】The Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" />

[chart shows EURUSD performance rebased to 100 at T-40days]

Given the market's very tightly related correlations, a 3-5% drop in EURUSD could damage US equities quite severely if the USD debasement does not arrive. A shift to 1.20 (which is where Fed/ECB balance sheets are currently positioned) would imply a drop to 1340ish for the S&P 500...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120911_EURUSD2_0.pngMarket Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" TITLE="【转载】The Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE" />