The Seoul G20 conference will presumably draw a veil of bland platitudes over the world’s ugly tensions. France, which guides the process for the next six months, will try to end the bickering over global imbalances. But it should not be forgotten that the discord stems from an underlying rebalancing that is almost wholly positive.

G20首尔峰会想必会用平淡的陈词滥调掩盖世界上一些丑陋的紧张。在今后六个月担任主席国的法国，将试图结束各方在全球失衡问题上的争吵。但人们不应忘记，当前的不和源自一种根本的再平衡，而这种再平衡几乎是一件十足的好事。

As recently as two decades ago, the world was sharply unbalanced: 20 per cent of the world’s population accounted for 60-80 per cent of the consumption of everything from steel to air transport. The rich-poor gap was narrowing only slowly. In the nine years ending in 2001, the 2.4 per cent annual growth rate of gross domestic product per person in poor countries was only a little faster than the 2.1 per cent in advanced nations, according to the International Monetary Fund.

就在20年前，世界还处于一种严重失衡状态：全球20%的人口占据了全球各种商品和服务（从钢材到空运）消费的60%至80%。当时贫富之间的鸿沟只是在缓慢缩小。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，在截至2001年的九年里，穷国实现了2.4%的年度人均国内生产总值(GDP)增长，比发达国家2.1%的年度增长快不了多少。

That changed. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook shows that from 2002 to 2011, the growth rate for poor nations is set to have more than doubled to 5.9 per cent; the rich rate will have almost halved to 1.1 per cent. That shift has created a crude balance: the rich (about 1bn people) now consume a little less electricity, phones and so forth than the enriching (about 6bn).

这种局面已经改变。IMF的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)显示，从2002年至2011年，穷国增长率势必将增加一倍多，达到5.9%；而富国增长率将接近减半，跌至1.1%。这种转变带来了一种粗糙的平衡：富国人士（大约10亿人）现在消费的电力、电话等商品和服务，比正在富裕起来的国家的人士（大约60亿人）少了一些。

The imbalances that bedevil the G20 are adjustment pains. The shift has proceeded faster in production than in consumption – creating big debts from some rich to some poor countries. The high savings rates in poor countries and the concentration of financial excess and now fiscal deficits in developed economies are results of this. The two protagonists of the current currency war, China and the US, are now trying to speed or slow the process respectively.

困扰G20的种种失衡都是调整中的痛苦。上述转变在生产方面的进展快于消费方面，使一些富国对一些穷国欠下大笔债务。穷国的高储蓄率、发达经济体金融滥行的集中以及现在的财政赤字，都是其结果。当前汇率战的两大主角——中国和美国——现在分别在试图加快和减缓这一进程。

The grand rebalance is good (except perhaps for the environment). But the G20 discord matters, because the rebalance still has a long way to go. The currency war, and its attendant risk of a full-blown tariff war to follow, could halt or slow the process long before it is completed. That would be bad for investors – but much worse for many billions of others.

这种宏观层面的再平衡是一件好事（也许环境所受的影响是一个例外）。但G20的不和确实会造成一定影响，因为这种再平衡还有很长一段路要走。汇率战争以及随之而来的爆发全面关税战争的风险，有可能在再平衡完成之前很久就阻止或延缓这一进程。那将对投资者不利，而对投资者之外的全球数几十亿人来说则更加不利。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析