市场整体稍偏弱 筑底行为初现

A bit weak of the whole Market  early bottom behavior appears

一、经济仍有不确定性 关注央行举措

注意到美非农就业增量低于之前经济学家预期的15.5万，同时失业率为9.8%，超过10月份的9.6%。周三美国10年期国债收益触及六个月高位，达3.33%个百分点，遭遇雷曼倒闭以来最大规模抛售。该抛售行为表明市场担忧美府不打算削减财政赤字，同时对美国政府采取的经济刺激措施未来收效持不确定态度。同时欧洲方面亦是在应对债务危机，而非积极的经济扩张。该对比格局或表明市场仍担忧经济形势的不确定性。当前国内方面需留意11月份CPI数据及市场情绪，之前中金公司曾预测11月份CPI为4.8%，显示对11月份物价的悲观情绪，同时无论消息来自何方，当前市场尚有对政府加息的利空预期。当前恒指仍然一定程度呈现高位偏弱震荡格局，如有系统性利空因素，将会加快二级证券市场的阶段见底，如果无系统性利空因素，证券二级市场仍然将短阶段呈现维稳震荡格局。为避免近日系统性风险对证券二级市场的打压，建议投资者轻仓位操作，同时长线交易者继续等待。

1. Economy with uncertainty  concern on initiatives of central bank

Notice American non-farm employment data increment belows 15.5 million, which is former economists’ expectation, while the unemployment rate is 9.8 per cent, more than 9.6% in October. On wednesday the ten-year United States treasury earnings touched six months high, to 3.33% percentage points, suffered the massive selling from lehman’s collapse. The selling behavior showed worries of market that American goverment are not going to reduce the budget deficit, at the same time market held uncertain attitude to the future effect the U.S. government shall reiceive through previous measures, while Europe is also in conditions coping with debt crisis, rather than positive economic expansion. The contrast pattern may suggest the market still worry about the uncertainties situation of economy. Currently in domestic market investors need to be aware of November CPI data and market sentiment, previously some investment institution forecast  November CPI was 4.8%, displayed pessimism on November prices, and no matter where is this piece of news from, current market still have expectations that the government shall raise interest rates. To avoid systematic risk, suggest investors invest with light freight spaces, and long term traders still better to wait.

二、料国际资本存观望情绪 短阶段谨慎

恒指短阶段维系多空主力较优博弈区域前期低点上方及23600点位下方，根据历史经验，在既有的信息掌握前提下，可判断市场分歧力量稍微均衡，而空方略微占优，整体市场状况偏弱。市场当前在进一步观望欧盟财长会议对待欧债危机的应对方案，同时亦在结合当前经济发展数据来综合评估美经济复苏的有效及持续性。美联储主席伯南克暗示未来仍有实行量化宽松措施的可能性，一定程度支撑了美股反弹后的高位调整，而穆迪对匈牙利主权信用评级下调两个级别致使前景展望为负亦给市场增加了不确定因素。黄金和原油仍然成为国际资本流动的狙击炒作商品，COMEX黄金期货和NYMEX原油期货近阶段均呈现阶段性上涨态势。该市场行为亦表明，国际资本对当前的市场风险担忧加大，国际资本流动尚呈现均衡状态，亦无大幅度从证券二级市场抽调，亦无主力资金入场迹象，观望气氛较为浓厚。在此情况下，建议投资者谨慎，莫盲目追涨。

2. Estimate international capital with wait-and-see sentiment  short stage be cautious

The hang seng index is below 23600 in former short stage, which is the best game area, according to historical experience and existing information, it can be judged that a little divergence of the market forces, and empty strategy dominates slightly, the overall market conditions is still a little weaker. The market are waiting and seeing the coping schemes to debt crisis by the Eropean committee, also evaluating the effectivity and sustainability of the current recovering economic development data. Federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke hinted that future still has opportunity to take quantitative loose measures, to a certain degree it supported adjustments at high positon of Dows index after previous bounce, Moody has cut two levels against Hungary sovereign credit rating causing negative prospect, which increased uncertain factors. International capital still flows into Gold and oil, price of which is flunctuating largely. The market behavior indicates that the international capital has doubts on the current market, risks are increasing, the international capital flows are still at equilibrium presently, not showing much willing to flow into the stock market, and also have no intentions to get out from the stock market, wait-and-see atmosphere is clear.

三、市场整体仍然偏弱 长线投资者继续等待

恒指短阶段维持较优博弈点位区间，并呈现震荡走势，量能中等，并在整体形式上偏弱。23600上方亦存在较大的套盘，市场每上涨途中抛压稍显沉重。同时市场仍存在对11月CPI数据的担忧情绪，唯恐央行采取货币紧缩措施。当前多空双方力量稍显均衡，而考虑之前交易日走出的横档连阴走势，可判断空方暂时占优。对于短线交易者而言，最近交易难度加大，建议观望或轻仓位低频率。考虑中国政府央行连续从紧的货币政策及最近市场对高CPI的担忧和对央行加息的预期，我们建议投资者继续持币等待。今日为恒指右侧第18个交易日，较左侧交易日尚余2个交易日，不确定性加大。短阶段市场整体形势尽管接近均衡，但仍然偏弱，建议投资者严格控制风险。从资金面和预期角度而言，均不利于当前证券二级市场格局。我们建议投资者继续观望。

3. Overall market still a little weak  long term investors continue to wait

The hang seng index remains optimal game point interval in short stage, and has presented concussion movements, quantity is medium, but is weak on integral form. 23600 above exists large waiting-to-sell chips, every time market rises slightly, it shall meet heavy selling pressure. At the same time market remains worry sentiment on November CPI data, with fear that the central bank shall still take tightening monetary measures. At present market force are in equilibrium,  but short side slightly dominant. For short term traders, recently exchanging difficulty is increased, suggest wait-and-see or light deposite-level trading with low frequency. Considering the continuous tightening monetary policy of Chinese government central bank and the recent high inflation concerns of market and market expectation that central bank may increase intreste , we suggest investors continue to hold money waiting. Today is the 18th day on the right side of HSI after its former head form, its two days remained compared to 20days’ period on the left side of the former head form of HIS, factor of uncertainty increases. Though in short stage the whole situation of market is close to balance, but still weak, advise investors to strictly control risk. From financing fator and perspective of market pessimistic expectations, there still has challenges to the current situation of secondary securities market. We suggest investors continue to wait.

四、市场信心指标接近低值 宜不必过度悲观

国内市场仍然对提前至本周六公布的经济数据有所担忧情绪，对央行加息预期尚存，同时持续的货币紧缩政策及行政性手段调控已在资金面和预期面打压了市场信心，市场信心指数显示已接近低值。根据历史经验，信心接近低值时往往是加速见底或筑底前期的信号。在市场普遍悲观预期下，前期被套投资者近期可不必有过度的悲观情绪，同时持币者亦不要盲目持仓。待经济数据公布后，市场预期得以方向性确立再做决定。在系统性风险未发生之前，料恒指仍将维系整体偏弱的维稳震荡格局，有可能挑战前期低点，但鉴于信心指数接近低值，普通投资者亦不必产生过于悲观的情绪，近期连续的欧债危机担忧及中国央行货币紧缩政策担忧，结合美国高于预期的失业率，已连续打压了市场信心，港市有望在受可能性的系统性风险打压后慢慢修复。对于当前操作策略，上策仍为持币等待。我们初步判断机构主力或在20日的时间窗口结束后结合当前央行加息的悲观利空预期，及有可能的果然加息的系统性风险，趁市场公众信心低迷时期继续打压恒指至低位时刻反手做多，我们对当前的市场形势抱以稳定态度，认为短阶段下跌空间有限，前期被套盘者亦不必过度悲观，同时鉴于当前国际经济复苏形势的不确定性及有可能发生的加息之系统风险，我们仍建议持币者继续观望，但对于十二五规划重点涉及的热点板块如重型机械设备制造可予以轻度建仓。

4. Market confidence indexes close to low position  need not be overly pessimistic

The domestic market has fear of annoucement of November economic data, which was shift to an earlier date on 11th, market still have expectations on increase of intrerest by the central bank, and continuous tightening monetary policy and administrative means have already suppressed market confidence on factors of financing and expectation, market confidence index display is already close to the lowest point. According to historical experience when confidence is close to the lowest point it is always possible to see accelerated market getting near to bottom. Under admosphere that the market is over pessimistic, investors buying at higher price needn’t be too pessimistic, at the same time investors holding money in hand needn’t buy stocks in a hurry, better still wait after the economic data has been released and the market has formed stable shape to make decisions. Before systematic risk happens, it is estimated that the hang seng index will sustain stability concussion pattern, which is a little weak, and is possible to challenge the previous low point, but with confidence index close to low point, investors need not be too pessimistic, recently successive Euro debt crisis worries and China's central bank tightening monetary policy concerns, combined with high unemployment date have already continuous suppressed market confidence, Hongkong market maybe slowly repairing after the possible restrain of systemic risk. For the current operating strategy, the best policy is still waiting.

综合而言，我们认为尽管市场在美国经济复苏数据持续性、欧盟及货币基金组织应对欧债危机成效、中国央行仍有加息可能等方面存在忧虑，然证券二级市场已对该利空预期于前期下跌及近阶段的横盘过程中进行了消化，本周五为恒指右侧第十八个交易日，距离时间窗口仅余两日，即便央行有加息的举动，料对恒指的冲击亦为有限。同时恒指位于22800上方23000点位附近仍显示点位处于空方主力较优派货区间23200—23600点位下沿，显示空方主力派货动能一定程度衰竭，而同时位于多方主力蓄积筹码上沿，并距离恒指61.8%黄金分割强势支撑点位22681点有较大截距，在多空力量均衡时段的交替转变中多方主力有逐渐演绎打压筑底迹象。建议投资者密切关注未来恒指较为有限的下跌空间，前期被套盘者亦不必过度担忧系统性风险对二级市场的打压，同时持币者继续密切关注恒指右侧形态的演绎。

三甲金融 港股研究员 刘晓杰