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从政策看风险
(2013-06-07 12:08:55)
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另外，中国大众期盼的城镇化政策遥遥无期。实际上，不管怎样看这个臆想的新城镇化，都觉得问题重重。农村劳动力人口大多数在城镇，也即剩余劳动力人口在减少。而且，农村大量非劳动力人口进入城镇，靠什么为生和养老？如果这些进入城镇的人口能进入生产领域，鉴于现在中国基本各行各业产能都严重过剩，这些新增加的产能针对哪些需求？城镇化本身是经济发展的自然结果，而现在被本末倒置，也即，put the cart before the horse（本来马拉车是自然规律，但现在来个车拉马）。现在来个新城镇化，会导致更加严重的资产错配，债务及信贷会被推上更高的悬崖。而且，最近的最高指示里没有了城镇化的踪影。而改革，目前还停留在减少行政干预和审批上，如副总理所讲。
人民币升值显然是高层的意思，比如央行的讲话可以看出。出口产业路会更加艰难。国际性公司早把不少产能都转移到东南亚国家，但对众多国内公司这条路是基本不通的。不少企业主和员工都会加入失业大军。但最近房地产地王频现，不少人为以为房价又要往上冲了。另外，上海很快试行人民币逐步自由兑换，也许，人民币坚挺是为了人民币国际化。但是，时机是没有比现在更糟的了。不管人民币怎样坚挺，看空发展中国家包括中国的海外投行，对冲基金等等都越来越多。似乎今晚的美国NFP非农数据众所瞩目，但大概率是一个比较好的数据。也即，美联储离缩减QE越来越近了。这对诸多风险资产是绝对的坏消息。【更新：美联储喉舌Jon Hilsenrath新文：下半年美联储缩减购债，在6月美联储会议中会提示，只要经济不让人失望】
前几周提示的中国股市风险，现在已经在逐步验证。不少行业主要公司股票都在破位下行，短期不容乐观。当然，长期更不容乐观。June 8： From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ:
Fed on Track to Ease Up on Bond Buying Later This Year
Federal Reserve officials are likely to signal at their June policy meeting that they're on track to begin pulling back their $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year, as long as the economy doesn't disappoint.
The central bank faces a number of challenges. One is managing the signal that they send to the market with their next series of moves.
Officials in their public statements have been trying to make clear that they are going to proceed cautiously with the bond program and are still probably years away from raising short-term interest rates, which have been near zero since late 2008.Officials will be updating their forecasts at the next policy meeting. One risk: Economic headwinds from tightening fiscal policy could continue longer than they expect.
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