Hugh Hendry, Eclectica对冲基金的CEO，最近对Financial Times讲他如何看空做空中国的，即是购买与中国相关的日本公司的CDS。他同另外一个做空大师Jim Chanos的某些观点非常相似。他也承认到中国国内来做空（股指等）或者做空最重要的工业金属铜很难控制风险，这也从侧面说明了如果国际资本要做空中国的话不会是直接短兵相接的干，而是间接渠道（这些金融精英们一定会找到他们认为合适的渠道的）。

最近有关索罗斯携90亿美金到香港的新闻也抓住了不少人的眼球。要知道索罗斯是做空出名的，而不是做多。对冲基金基本都是做空赚大钱的。千万别把索罗斯想得太简单，真真假假虚虚实实的消息一定会迷惑大多数人。没有军队会在行动前大张旗鼓的向外界透露消息，即使这样做那他一定有目的的。要知道，索罗斯在香港可是有相当经验的，没有把握不会轻易出师，考虑到他的年龄，这也许是他一生最后一次大战吧。

其实从美国来的消息都很多有迷惑的成分。美国财政部长盖特纳在G20财政部长会议前多次说美国不会走弱势美元的路，但美联储的消息确是加大印钞步伐。以前美元滥发的两点基础是美国长期财政赤字政策倾向和经常项目赤字。但是如果2011年美国实施一定程度的财政紧缩呢？如果美联储自2010年8月鼓吹的QE2在美联储11月会议后并不是现在人们想象的QE2呢？美联储真的不怕通货膨胀失控？1979年开始的第二次石油危机（因为伊朗革命爆发以及后来的两伊战争）导致石油（和黄金）如坐火箭般冲上云霄而引起美国恶性通货膨胀。美联储主席Volker连续加息到20%以上才让通货膨胀停下来，而附带的牺牲品是债券市场几乎停止（利率太高）。这期间，美元指数翻了一倍到160，一直到1985年广场协议前。现在商品市场只有石油没有涨起来。不得不说，或者套用郎咸平的话，美国要做什么以及怎样做没人事先知道，但是做了以后我还是大概看得懂。

Hendry shorts China buying CDS on Japanese corporate bonds

Prominent UK hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry (pictured), the CIO and CEO of Eclectica Asset Management, has started taking short positions on China on expectations that the Asian powerhouse will slow down, reports the Financial Times this week. Very few fund managers are taking this stance, in large part because the very process of “going short” on China is extremely difficult; shorting Chinese stocks is tricky even for Chinese nationals. Fund managers looking to take a bearish stance are therefore required to explore indirect, proxy alternatives. Hendry himself is doing this by buying credit default swaps (simply put, a form of insurance) on Japanese corporate credits, believing these to be the instruments most likely to be affected by any form of contraction.


Hendry is not, however, the only one: Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, has been warning about China’s excessive credit and potential housing market disruption infecting the broader economy, backing up his comments by shorting construction (including Hong Kong-listed Chinese property firms) and industrial companies operating on the mainland. Hendry has been developing the CDS portfolio since opening a new fund back in June after investors showed interest. Currently, the fund owns CDS on 20-30 corporate bonds, most of which are Japanese. Hendry told the FT: “I could go to China and short equities, but that’s too volatile and I have unlimited loss. I could short commodities like copper, but that would be unlimited loss too, so I don’t like it. I could look for ways to be short Australia or Brazil, but there’s not enough optionality there. Japan is the most exposed economy industrially. If there is the slightest sneeze in south-east Asia it will give me so much more bang for my buck.”Hendry, who is paying as little as 50 basis points (0.5 per cent) annually on companies such as Nippon Steel, hopes to see the trades pay off within 18 months.