Hugh Hendry在对冲基金中不算最出名的，但是他的名气也不算小。他就属于那种Contrarian Investor，有其相当独到的见解。比如最近他在采访中说，下一个危机地区就是日本以及中国了。总体上讲，中国的资本配置不是像西方自由经济国家是以利润（投资收益）为基础的，其边际收益（Marginal Return）为负。也就是讲，中国的总体资本配置是在摧毁财富，而不是创造财富，虽然其创造出了好看的GDP（这是在说中国的国家投资铁公基吧）。这就像前几年的Starbuck（星巴克），不断的扩张导致其边际收益为负数，而遭到资本市场的惩罚，股价不断下跌。日本的情况是强势日元会导致日本政府破产，所以日元以后会相当弱势，日本政府很可能大肆印钱。所以他说他在以20亿美金的仓位做空日本以及其他亚洲地区。他还有一种观点是，当资本市场大多数人朝一个方向的时候，就是向反方向做（空或者多）的时候。联想当前的黄金，还有美元等等，是不是有一定的指导意义呢。

有兴趣的可以听听他的采访录音，英文的。

Hugh Hendry Making Huge $2 Billion Bet On Asia's Failure

Hugh Hendry, CEO of Eclectica Asset Management, revealed a huge bet against Asia in an interview with King World News (via Zero Hedge).

Hendry thinks that Asia will be the next global market to hit the skids after the subprime collapse in the U.S. and the sovereign crisis in Europe. He envisions severe problems for Japan, when currency strength will for the country to engage in another, more aggressive round of quantitative easing, debauching the country's currency.

So he is making a bet worth $2 billion against Japanese credit, notably in corporations. He sees overconfidence and over reliance on the growth of China as a reason for this position.

He even compared China to Starbucks, noting that they are now investing money in manufacturing the same way Starbucks did in new stores: accepting a negative marginal return on invested capital.

But Hendry reminds listeners, "I have no monopoly on the future."

On the subject of a bond bubble, Hendry says that there, "is one going on," and he thinks markets are experiencing a simultaneous "melt-up" in gold and U.S. treasuries.

采访录音链接：

Listen the the full interview, where Hendry discusses other matters like gold, at King World News >