伯南克说美国经济继续缓慢复苏

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分类: 政治与经济 |
伯南克作证说,美联储正继续监测经济状况并调整其政策以支持美国经济可持续复苏。
MacKenzie C. Babb | Staff Writer | 2012.07.18
美国国务院国际信息局(IIP)《美国参考》MacKenzie C. Babb从华盛顿报道,美国联邦储备系统管理委员会(Federal Reserve Board)主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)说,美国经济正继续复苏,但复苏的速度看来要比经济学家们所预期的更为缓慢。
7月17日,伯南克在美国国会发表了中央银行的半年度货币政策报告。
伯南克在参议院金融、住房和城市事务委员会(Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs)作证时说:“在2011年下半年以2.5%的年率增长后,实际[国内生产总值]在2012年第一季度的增长率为2%。现有的指标显示第二季度的增长率会更低。”
他说,在2011年下半年及2012年初,劳工市场的状况有所改善,在此期间,失业率降低了大约1个百分点,其后稳定在略高于8%的水平。
家庭开支继续增长,但报告显示,在近几个月中增速略为减缓。
伯南克说:“尽管目前能源价格的回落为消费者的购买力提供了一些支持,但人们仍然为他们的就业和收入前景担忧,他们的整体信心仍然处于一个比较低的水平。”
他说,住房市场有了一些小幅改善,部分原因是,有史以来最低的抵押贷款利率促进了新住房与现有住房的销售。建筑业也已有所回升。
伯南克说:“尽管如此,还是有一些因素继续阻碍住房市场的复苏进程。”
在需求方面,许多想要购房的买家因忧心于他们的财务状况或总的经济状况而徘徊不前;在供应方面,正在进行的银行法拍所推出的大量空置房屋继续干扰着对新建房屋的需求。
制造业生产与企业支出在过去9个月获得强劲增长后,已经下降至一个更为温和的增长率。
伯南克说:“企业状况调查和资本开支计划等投资需求的前瞻指标显示了复苏进一步疲弱的趋势。”
他说,美国经济复苏继续被一系列不利因素所扼制,目前正面临着两大风险来源。
第一个是欧洲金融与银行危机,伯南克说,这对于美国经济前景仍然是一个“重大风险”。
伯南克说:“欧洲的金融市场与经济仍然处于严重困境之中,这将继续影响包括美国在内的世界其他各国的财政与经济状况。”
他说,在欧洲各国努力克服危机之时,美国正集中精力提高其金融体系承受外部震荡的能力。
伯南克继续说,影响美国经济复苏的第二个风险来源是美国国内的财政状况。
他要求国会“以一种同时兼顾到长期可持续性与复苏的脆弱性的方式”来应对国家所面临的各种经济挑战。伯南克说,这样做将有助于减少不确定性,提升家庭与企业的信心。
他说,中央银行的决策机构“联邦公开市场委员会”(Federal Open Market Committee)曾在6月份举行会议,评估市场状况并作出旨在维持经济平稳运行的决定。
委员会成员们决定将联邦基金利率,即银行间隔夜拆借利率的目标范围保持在0与0.25之间的极低水平,以支持经济增长。该委员会表示,它预期经济状况极可能要求联邦基金利率继续保持在低水平上,至少到2014年下半年。
他们还投票决定联邦储备委员会继续增持较长期的债券。
这两项举措的目的都在于降低借贷成本并在整个经济中形成一个宽松的财务状况,从而促进经济更快增长。
伯南克指出,出于对降低失业率进展缓慢和经济前景下行风险的关切,该委员会已准备好采取进一步行动,以在保持物价稳定的情况下促进更为强劲的经济复苏和劳工市场状况的持续改善。
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Bernanke: U.S. Economy Continues Slow Recovery
By MacKenzie C. Babb | Staff Writer | 17 July 2012
Bernanke testified that the Federal Reserve Board is continuing to monitor economic conditions and adjust its policies to support a sustainable U.S. economic recovery.
Washington — The U.S. economy is continuing to recover but appears to be doing so at a slower pace than economists expected, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The chairman delivered the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress July 17.
“After rising at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the second of half of 2011, real [gross domestic product] increased at a 2 percent rate in the first quarter of 2012, and available indicators point to a still-smaller gain in the second quarter,” Bernanke testified before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
He said conditions in the labor market improved during the latter part of 2011 and early in 2012, with the unemployment rate falling by about a percentage point during that period to level out just over 8 percent.
Household spending has continued to increase, but the report indicates a somewhat slower rate of growth in recent months.
“Although declines in energy prices are now providing some support to consumers’ purchasing power, households remain concerned about their employment and income prospects, and their overall level of confidence remains relatively low,” Bernanke said.
He said the housing market has seen some modest improvements, in part because of historically low mortgage rates that are boosting new and existing home sales. Construction has also increased.
“Still, a number of factors continue to impede progress in the housing market,” Bernanke said.
On the demand side, many would-be buyers are deterred by concerns about their finances or the economy in general. On the supply side, the large number of vacant homes boosted by ongoing foreclosures continues to divert demand from new construction.
After posting strong gains over the last nine months, manufacturing production and business spending have slowed to a more moderate growth rate.
“Forward-looking indicators of investment demand, such as surveys of business conditions and capital spending plans, suggest further weakness ahead,” Bernanke said.
He said the United States’ economic recovery continues to be held back by a number of headwinds, and currently faces two major sources of risk.
The first is the European financial and banking crisis, which Bernanke said remains a “significant risk” to the U.S. economic outlook.
“Europe’s financial markets and economy remain under significant stress, with spillover effects on financial and economic conditions in the rest of the world, including the United States,” Bernanke said.
He said that as European authorities work to resolve the crisis, the United States is focused on improving the resilience of its financial system to external shocks.
The second source of risk to the U.S. recovery, according to Bernanke, is the country’s domestic fiscal situation.
He called on Congress to support the economy by addressing the nation’s challenges “in a way that takes into account both the need for long-run sustainability and the fragility of the recovery.” Bernanke said doing so will help reduce uncertainty and boost household and business confidence.
He said the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s policymaking arm, met in June to assess market conditions and make decisions intended to keep the economy running smoothly.
Committee members moved to keep the target range for the federal funds rate, or the rate banks are charged for overnight loans, exceptionally low at between 0 and 0.25 percent in order to support economic growth. The committee said it expects economic conditions will likely require continued low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
They also voted to continue to increase the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities.
Both actions are meant to result in lower borrowing costs and easier financial conditions throughout the economy, in turn promoting more rapid economic growth.
Bernanke said that in light of its concerns about the slow pace of progress in reducing unemployment and the downside risks to the economic outlook, the committee is prepared to take further action to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in the context of price stability.
Read more: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2012/07/201207179202.html#ixzz2133dY3Zb