8月4日,美国大西洋周刊记者詹姆斯·法洛斯(James
Fallows)与中国记者进行了电话会议,讨论此次美国债务上限问题以及其对中国的潜在影响。
法洛斯总结了债务上限的三个原因:
1. 国会和世界经济的脱节是由一个巨大的恐惧造成的,即美国的赤字可能会超过经济增长并对衰退造成影响。另一方面,美国想在不采取任何紧缩政策的情况下长期削减赤字。Economic
disconnection between the Congress and world economies caused by a
great fear that U.S. deficit might overtake economic growth and
affect recession. On the other hand, the U.S. would like to reduce
deficit in long-run without any contradiction policies.
2. 长期的政治分歧成为了债务上限问题的一部分。虽然过去在很多总统任职期,国会提高债务上限是正常的,但是两党在债务上限问题上的极端分歧是罕见的。Long-term
political conflict built into the debt ceiling issue. Although it
has been normal for the Congress to increase its debt ceiling in
the past through many presidencies, the extreme bipartisan conflict
over the debt ceiling is unusual.
3. 两党分歧---欧巴马和其民主党支持者认为提高债务上限,继之以经济复苏,对他2012年的连任选举至关重要。但另一方面,包括罗姆尼在内的共和党候选人,几乎都反对这一增额。然而,前驻华大使亨茨曼先生,是唯一支持这一新债务上限的共和党候选人;他的支持可能会提升其在选民中的受欢迎程度。Bipartisan
conflict –Obama and his Democratic supporters believe that an
increased the debt ceiling followed by economic recovery is crucial
for his re-election in 2012. On the other hand, Republican
candidates, including Mr. Romney, are mostly opposed to the
increment. However, Mr. Huntsman, the former Ambassador to China,
is the only Republican candidate who supports the new debt ceiling;
it is also believed that his support might increase his popularity
among voters.
至于对中国的影响,Fallows认为至少在接下来几年内美国债务上限问题对中国没有直接的重大影响。他预测对中国投资者而言,经济状况会保持原样。
关于美国债务上限谈判,参看 两党债务协议:一次经济和预算规则的成功
http://chinese.usembassy-china.org.cn/073111p.html
关于James Fallows:大西洋周刊记者,自1970年代晚期为该杂志写作。他还曾担任卡特总统首席撰稿人。Fallows曾5次入围美国国家杂志奖决赛,获奖一次。他还获得美国图书奖非虚构类奖,并因为纪录片《在中国做生意》(Doing
Business in China)获得纽约艾米奖。他是新美国基金会创始主席。他最近的两本书Blind Into Baghdad
(2006) 以及 Postcards from Tomorrow Square
(2009)都是基于在大西洋周刊发表的文章。他目前在写作另外一本关于中国的书。
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