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美国货币当局和经济学界高度关注房地产市场衰退可能带来的经济后果

(2007-10-13 16:53:00)
标签:

杂谈

今年9月1日美联储在堪萨斯城(Kansas City)召开一个非常高级别的会议,邀请多位重量级经济学家与货币政策决策者专门研讨房地产市场衰退对美国经济可能带来的严重后果,特别是货币政策制定中应该采取的相应对策。

美联储主席伯南克致开幕词,多位美国最顶尖的经济学家提交了他们对当前美国房地产市场时局以及货币政策对策看法的论文。其中多年来一直认为美国房地产市场存在严重泡沫的著名经济学家耶鲁大学教授罗伯特.希勒直言认为,美国住房价格在未来几年很有可能跌去一半!

欧洲中央银行副行长、瑞典中央银行行长、日本中央银行执行行长也受邀参加研讨会做发言或评论。除伯南克外,美联储中央执行委员Frederic S. Mishkin提交了论文论述住房对货币政策的传达机制。美国国家经济研究局(NBER)主席、里根时期的总统经济顾问会主席、著名经济学家、哈佛大学教授Martin Feldstein做闭幕式演讲。

此次会议规格之高,历史罕见,显示了美联储对房地产市场衰退后果的高度重视。房地产市场在美国经济中的重要性可见一斑,房价的波动性已经成为影响货币政策制定的必要考虑因素。

会议论文全文和评论都可在互联网上下载

http://www.kansascityfed.org/home/subwebnav.cfm?level=3&theID=9954&SubWeb=5

 

Opening
Remarks:

BEN S. BERNANKE
Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

   

The Housing Finance Revolution

   

Authors:

Richard K. Green
Professor, George Washington University

Susan M. Wachter
Professor, University of Pennsylvania

   

Paper:

The Housing Finance Revolution

   

Discussant:

William R. White
Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements

   

General Discussion  (when available)


Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

   

Author:

Robert J. Shiller
Professor, Yale University

   

Paper:

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

   

Discussant:

Christopher J. Mayer
Professor, Columbia University

   

General Discussion  (when available)


Housing and the Business Cycle

   

Author:

Edward E. Leamer
Professor, University of California, Los Angeles

   

Paper:

Housing and the Business Cycle

   

Discussant:

Frank Smets
Deputy Director General, European Central Bank

   

General Discussion  (when available)


   

Introductory
Remarks:

DAVID W. WILCOX
Deputy Director, Division of Research and Statistics
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

   

Luncheon
Address
:

Edward M. Gramlich
Senior Fellow, Urban Institute

   

Housing and Consumer Behavior

   

Author:

John N. Muellbauer
Professor, Oxford University

   

Paper:

Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure

   

Discussant:

Sydney C. Ludvigson
Professor, New York University

   

General Discussion  (when available)


Housing and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

   

Author:

Frederic S. Mishkin
Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

   

Discussant:

James D. Hamilton
Professor, University of California, San Diego

   

General Discussion  (when available)


Housing and Monetary Policy

   

Panelists:

Stefan Ingves
Governor, Sveriges Riksbank

   
 

Kazumasa Iwata
Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan

   
  John B. Taylor
Professor, Stanford University and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
   

General Discussion  (when available)


Overview and Concluding Remarks

   
  Martin Feldstein
President and Chief Executive Officer, National Bureau of Economic Research

 

 

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