日前，业界传出百思买败退中国市场，可能撤出传闻，一时间引起广泛关注。但是，在笔者看来，百思买撤出中国说纯属无稽之谈，甚至不排除个别企业借外来竞争对手炒作之嫌？

笔者之所以作出上述判断，事由有三：

一、       据彭博社2月9日报道，百思买有可能切换到沃尔玛式评价，意即百思买极有可能跟进沃尔玛“天天低价”策略，在消费电子零售市场掀起一股“平价风潮”。

众所周知，沃尔玛纵横全球市场的杀手锏便是“Everyday Prices（天天平价）”，而天天平价的秘诀则在于“并不是所有的商品低于市场均价，而是针对差异化商品或者特别同质化商品周期性低价策略，既不是是空洞的口号，也不是尾货、次货的的低价甩卖，更不是恶意的削价竞争，而是系统性，规范化、标准化的惠客的行为。而天天低价的支撑体系则是全球采购，高度信息化、标准化，高超的品类规划，产品线组合。（麦肯趋势观点）。”

近年来，百思买启动国际化路线，相继进军加拿大、中国、英国、墨西哥，土耳其等海外市场，尤其是长期以来将中国市场作为其全球采购供应链的重要一环，百思买已经初步基本了全球化采购及市场拓展，跟进沃尔玛天天平价市场运作模式的能力。

因此，将百思买中国执行该公司美国总部全球市场战略的举措，想当然的理解为：百思买放弃其经营传统，直面对战国美、苏宁等本土家电连锁巨头，显然有失偏颇，甚至难免“紧张过度”之嫌。

二、       百思买有可能切换到沃尔玛式天天平价的背景因素，还包括：沃尔玛在3C消费电子零售不断发力，在百思买大本营的北美市场，不断制造“麻烦”，逐渐浸淫中国文化的百思买则出于竞争因素考虑，运用“师夷长技以制夷”，“以其人之道还治其人之身”之道达到遏制沃尔玛节节紧逼之势的目的。

显然，如果这一策略奏效，其所产生的影响肯定会波及到加拿大、中国、土耳其、墨西哥等海外市场的同行，但其假想敌绝非后者。

故而，笔者认为美苏等本土家电连锁巨头对百思买天天低价模式，战略上轻视对手，无可厚非；而战术角度，则必须“虚怀若谷”。认真研究如何强化本公司的品类管理、产品线规划、供应链优化以及信息化、标准化等等“内强其功”的课题，尽可能缩短与外资竞争对手在经营水平上的差距，达到一定水平后，进一步考虑“天天低价”的问题。否则，欲速则不达，所谓的“低价王”也只不过是喊喊而已，甚至带来将顾客推向百思买、山田电机、万得城等外资狼的可惜可怕又可悲的 “悲惨结局”。

至于撤退中国市场则纯属无稽之谈。对于“短期内不会撤出中国市场”的判断。笔者认为，此短期的年限界定，少则8年、10年，多则20年、50年甚至更长。

之所以作出如此“非短期”的判断，依据有三：

首先，2011年我国十二五规划开局之年，也是我国加入WTO（世界贸易组织）10周年，零售业全面开放5周年。坚持扩大内需战略，保持经济平稳较快发展，则被外媒评为“消费立国”战略。因此，我们有理由判断，未来数年内，不断提高商业流通领域的对外开放水平，必将作为构建搞活流通扩大消费长效机制的重要一环。而不断提高城乡居民收入，则为扩大内需，刺激消费提供了可靠保障。

其次，作为新兴国家市场（Emerging Market：新兴市场或Volume Zone：高歌地区，亦称给力市场）领头羊的中国市场，增长可期。其中，近年来，含家电、IT、数码以及电气化商品等的消费电子市场，则保持着国内居于各行业前列，国际居于本行业前列的高位增长水平。国内权威市场调查机构中怡康日前发布的数据显示，2010年全年国内家电市场零售额规模超过10400亿元。其中，黑电行业1700亿元以上，白电行业2500亿元以上，IT、通讯产业4500亿元以上，厨卫、小家电1700亿元以上，全年国内家电市场增速超18%，创下过去十年来之最。同期，GFK中国发布的数据则显示：2010年中国技术型耐用消费品（手机、彩电、冰箱、洗衣机、空调、数码相机、数码摄像机、电动剃须刀、笔记本电脑、台式电脑等）零售总额高达1.02万亿元，与2009年的8442亿元相比增长了21%，大大高于2009年的同比增长率7%。在笔者看来，尽管由于统计口径差异，增长率数值存在一定的差异，但两大机构数据则相互印证了2010年中国消费电子、电器市场增长形势喜人。

而随着城市存量市场更新换代周期缩短，增量市场新增需求规模的逐步扩大扩大；城镇市场家电普及消费浪潮的推进以及第一轮更新换代大潮的即将到来，未来数年内中国大陆市场必将“持续给力”，作为新兴国家市场的领军地位不可替代。

     第三，百思买今年1月初最新公布的12月份财务报告，数据显示：2010年12月份，国内市场实现营业收入84亿美元，同比减收4.2%；海外市场同比增长4.5%，增收至19亿美元。对于百思买全球而言，海外市场给力，显然起到抵消国内市场下降不利影响的全局意义。可比门店方面，相对于上年度同期9.3%的强劲可比门店增长，当月国内市场可比门店下降5%；而同期，海外市场可比门店仅下降0.1%（去年同期3.5%）。该公司在财报中明确表示：国际业务的可比店面销售额下降0.1个百分点，其主要原因系受加拿大市场疲软影响，但另一方面，中国、欧洲的增长则大体上抵消了加拿大市场的不利影响，使得国际市场营收较去年同期增长1个百分点，创下4.5%新高。其中，中国市场可比店面销售额更是在黄金周期间创下高两位数强劲增长，则成为该报告提振投资者信心的最闪光的亮点。

    另一方面，百思买2011财年度前3季业绩数据来看，其总营收同比增长2%，达到385亿美元；国内市场营收同比增长4%，达到340亿美元；国际市场营收则从上年同期的22亿美元倍增至45亿美元，中国、欧洲则是对增长贡献最大的市场。尤其是中国市场上五星电器可比门店销售额超两位数高位增长，简直可以称之为百思买全球的闪光给力点，起到提振投资者、员工、消费者信心的至为关键的作用。

   基于，笔者判断，百思买撤出堪称最给力市场的中国市场的可能性微乎其微。倒是五星电器的强劲表现，可能会影响百思买在中国市场的双品牌战略推进节奏。因此，前进？还是撤退？答案已经不言而喻！谣传，还是谶言？尚有待时间检验……

附彭博社2月9日报道，原文：

Best Buy May Switch to Wal-Mart-Style Everyday Prices

By Chris Burritt and Clifford Edwards - Feb 10, 2011 5:17 AM GMT+0800 Tweet  inShare46More

    Business Exchange Buzz up! Digg Print Email  Buy store in New York. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Best Buy Co., the world’s largest consumer electronics retailer, may curtail three decades of tactical discounting and move instead to its own version of the everyday prices pioneered by Wal-MartStores Inc.

  With Americans increasingly using smartphones to comparison shop, consumers are unwilling to wait for sales if they find better deals elsewhere, said Mike Vitelli, executive vice president and co-head of the North America division.

“We have to move rapidly in recognizing the transparency of pricing,” Vitelli, 55, said in a Feb. 7 interview at Best Buy’s headquarters in Richfield, Minnesota. Internal discussions about making the switch are at an early stage, he said.

  In December, Best Buy cut its profit outlook for the year ending this month to between $3.20 and $3.40 a share, down from $3.55 to $3.70, citing falling domestic demand for televisions, notebook computers and gaming software. It lost TV sales after Wal-Mart and Target Corp. discounted prices on their least expensive models on the Black Friday weekend in late November while Best Buy delayed price cuts until December, Vitelli said.

  The retailer has tried new tactics to keep customers from defecting to rivals.

  In December, the company dropped fees it charges to take back merchandise. On Feb. 6, it officially kicked off a product buyback program with a Super Bowl commercial starring Justin Bieber and Ozzy Osbourne.

  Typically everyday pricing is a pledge that a retailer will offer the best price it can get from suppliers and still make money on each item. Best Buy may not be able to generate enough consumer interest to make up for lower average selling prices, said Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities Inc. analyst in Los Angeles.

  Wal-Mart Pricing “Wal-Mart makes up for everyday low pricing in volume,” said Pachter, who rates Best Buy as “neutral.” “Best Buy doesn’t have the traffic, so it doesn’t make sense for them. They’re losing better-informed customers who are more savvy about alternative places to buy the same product.”

  Best Buy fell 50 cents to $33.85 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have fallen 5.9 percent in the previous 12 months.

  Best Buy hasn’t decided how the new pricing model would work, Vitelli said. The company has begun talking with Sony Corp., Samsung Electronics Co. and other manufacturers about offering greater flexibility on pricing their products, he said.

 Samsung declined to comment and a Sony spokesman said a retail executive wasn’t immediately available to answer questions.

  Sales Projections Best Buy’s sales growth has slowed amid heightened competition from rivals such as Wal-Mart and online retailers like Amazon.com Inc., vying for recession-weary customers with promotions and new items. Best Buy’s revenue may rise 1.2 percent  to $50.3 billion this year, the slowest pace in at least a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 During a Best Buy staff meeting, Vitelli was willing to say out loud: “Why do we carry inventory when we train consumers only to buy it’” on sale, said Rick Rommel, a senior vice president who helps run a unit that tests new concepts.

“If the pricing isn’t everyday, the consumers just wait,” Rommel said in an interview. “Our inventory sits and waits for that next promotional moment.”

 Switching to consistent pricing would “be very powerful,” said Barry Judge, Best Buy’s chief marketing officer. “It makes our pricing much more transparent than it is today.”

Best Buy’s weekly newspaper circular would be “a whole lot easier to lay out” with prices easier for consumers to understand, Judge said.

 “The prices are the prices,” he said.

  The retailer is also reducing the number of items it sells to focus on products that sell well, Vitelli said. By the end of the year the company will carry fewer than 100 TV models in the average store, down from about 140 a year ago.

  Slower-selling products will continue to be sold online, Vitelli said.