正如惠誉的预期，五中全会公报的内容较为概括，涉及的具体细节不多，但中国政府强调将继续大力推进经济改革和经济调整。大会的主旨在于进一步解放生产力，从而在人口老龄化以及调整经济结构问题的过程中实现“全面建设小康社会”的目标。

对于公报中提到的优化国有资本管理，惠誉一直认为，中国可能会在当前所有制模式下推进行政体制改革，而不是实行大范围的国有资产私有化。鉴于国有部门的发展在整个经济中相对滞后，这一举措是否可以大幅提高该部门效率还有待观察。

根据联合国的预测，未来20年中国的劳动力人口比例将从现在的73%下降到2035年的65%，本次大会公布的“全面放开二孩”的政策显然无法消除这段时期的人口压力。中国当前体制下生育二孩的意愿相对低下，这项政策是否会对中国的生育率有较大影响，我们将拭目以待。

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Andrew Colquhoun (Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings) said:

“As expected, the fifth plenum’s statement is light on detail, but the rhetorical emphasis on reform and rebalancing of the economy remains strong. The key theme is unlocking stronger productivity to achieve a ‘moderately prosperous society’ in the context of an ageing population and existing imbalances.

The statement talks about “improving” the management of the state’s capital. Fitch has long held the view that widespread privatisation of state-owned assets is unlikely and that administrative reforms within the existing ownership model are more likely. It remains to be seen whether this approach can unlock significant improvements in the efficiency of the state-owned sector, which has tended to lag that of the broader economy.

The move to a two-child policy of course cannot avert the pressures on China’s demographic position over the next 20 years, during which the UN projects the working-age share of China’s population to drop from 73% in 2015 to 65% in 2035. It will be interesting to see whether it makes much difference to birth rates in light of weak take-up of options to  have a second child under the current system.”

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