虎年将给投资者带来收益，也会带来波动，买贵金属可能获益，里昂证券（CLSA）的“风水分析”这样显示。这家经纪商把这份分析报告小心地说成是“不是当真的”，但事实是，中港台很多投资者和商人对待风水和星相都是非常认真的。

里昂证券在第16份年度《风水指数报告》中说：虎年通常会出现大幅波动甚至是剧变，而2010年像老虎本身一样，既会虎虎生威，也会充满冲动和风险。整体前景看涨，从9月份到年底会出现特别强劲的上涨。

今年的这个虎年还跟五行中的金有关，这意味着会是持有贵金属的好年景，报告预测，黄金价格有可能涨到每盎司2,000美元以上。但航运等跟水有关的行业年景不佳。

里昂证券说，虎年是马年人的吉年，这意味着已经是中国首富的比亚迪首席执行长王传福可能会再行大运。

为评估《风水指数报告》预测得准不准，我们看了一下去年的报告。报告准确预测到M黄金价格会突破每盎司1,000美元，牛年出生的奥巴马(Barack Obama)流年不利。相差十万八千里的是，报告预测股市将极度糟糕，说股市将成为“破碎梦想的墓地”。事实上，股市在从阳历2009年1月26日开始的牛年里牛气冲天，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上涨31.2%，香港恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)上涨61.6%，蔚为壮观。

Aaron Back

 

Hong Kong - Wednesday, 3 February, 2010 - CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets (“CLSA”), Asia’s leading independent brokerage and investment group, launches the 16th CLSA Feng Shui Index (‘CLSA FSI’) report with a tongue-in-cheek look at what 2010 holds for equities, commodities, property, celebrities, and the zodiac signs in the months ahead.

 

The previous year of the Golden Tiger was 1950, a year that saw the Dow Jones Index gain significantly and end the year on a high. However, Tiger-years are typically marked by dramatic changes and even upheaval and 2010, much like the tiger itself, sees an energetic and powerful, but impulsive and risky, year ahead.

 

Those trading equities should get set to ride the wild tiger. The markets will be volatile with a surge in the first month followed by a decline that turns upwards in June, dips, and then swings up again in September to see the Golden Tiger roar by January 2011.

 

With this Tiger year’s heavenly stem being metal, gold is set to have a great run and we predict that it could break US$2,000/oz. In fact, commodities of all stripes will fair well including silver, copper, zinc and aluminum. Those regarded as ‘wood’ will also do very well: pulp and paper, clothing and pharmaceuticals. ‘Fire’ and ‘earth’ elements, thus technology, power, telecoms and property will have a good year but ‘water’ related sectors will be challenged, translating to a bumpy time for shipping, airlines, logistics, autos and transport.

 

For the first time, the CLSA FSI features a Hong Kong property snapshot, highlighting the best and worst areas across the Special Administrative Region. We see a year of consolidation; prices will continue to climb early in the year, with some weakness toward year-end.

 

Looking ahead month-by-month, February will bring fantastic opportunities for those sharp enough to recognise them and fast enough to grab them. March signals the start of three bumpy months, but there’ll be no shortage of good trades for those brave enough. In April, the influence of the stars of misfortune is especially disruptive, while the first few weeks of May will be feisty.

 

June heralds a great month but maybe not the best for betting, although the 21 June summer solstice is especially auspicious and gold may surge. July is a more relaxed with time to enact long-cherished plans and projects. August sees the return of volatility and precious metals look set to break upwards, especially gold, silver and copper. In September, the trend is upwards and a mixture of considered and idle speculations offers the possibility of eye-popping returns.

 

October is possibly one of the best months of the year, with life returning to the markets. It marks the return of a sustained drive upwards that continues into November, December and January. Each of the last three months features an auspicious date; 17 November, 8 December, 16 January.

 

In terms of the Zodiac, a great year lies ahead for those born in the years of the Dragon, Sheep and particularly, the Horse. A relatively good year is in store for Rats, Cows, Rabbits, Roosters, Dogs and Pigs, while it will be a bumpy ride for Tigers, Snakes and Monkeys.

 

The Golden Tiger year will favour China’s wealthiest woman, Nine Paper’s Zhang Yin, a Rooster in the Chinese zodiac. She will take on some of the toughest competition of her career and come out on top. For China’s wealthiest man, BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu, a Horse, the sun will continue to shine as it has since Warren Buffet invested into his company and set the price soaring. And for Buffet, also a horse, the future looks just as bright. He is about to enter the most financially lucky period of his life. Expect some significant and unusual developments in Berkshire Hathaway’s already substantial interest in China.

 

And so as the Chinese saying goes: “Once on a tiger’s back, it is hard to get off”. But if you can hang on, it is certainly the safest place to be. Enjoy the ride and Happy New Year.

- end -

 

About the CLSA Feng Shui Index

The CLSA Feng Shui Index began life as a Chinese New Year card for clients in 1992, with a simple summary of forecasts by feng shui masters, plus the views of our own consultant. To flesh it out, we also predicted the performance of the Hang Seng Index, based on the investment omens. No one paid much attention to the contrarian chart. But by year’s end it had correctly called all seven of the Hang Seng’s major turns.

 

We stopped publishing in 2005, but brought the report back to life in 2009 by popular request from clients and the enthusiasm with which its revival was greeted suggests that it has got a long and happy future.