Beforehand preparation leads to success; unpreparness results in failure.

　　凡事预则立，不预则废。

　　The past is as clear as a mirror, the future as dark as lacquer.

　　过去像镜子一样明亮，未来像漆器一样黑暗。

　　American Proverb

　　The future is called“perhaps,”which is the only possible thing to call the future.

　　未来可以被称作“可能”，那是唯一可以用来称呼未来的词汇。In these matters the only

　　certainty is that nothing is certain.

　　在这些事情方面，唯一确定的是什么都不确定。

INTERCULTURAL DIALOGUE跨文化对话

　　Dialogue 1

　　There are a number of ways one’s uncertainty avoidance orientation may manifest itself in interaction. In the dialogue presented below, Kelly and Chang are interacting about a dinner invitation. Kelly, from the United States, possesses a relatively weak uncertainty avoidance index, while Chang, a Chinese, comes from a culture with a relatively strong uncertainty avoidance index.

　　不确定性规避的方式表现在交流中的各个方面，在下面的这个对话中，Kelly和Chang正在谈邀请别人吃晚餐的事情。Kelly是美国人，美国文化的不确定性规避指数较低；Chang是中国人，中国文化的不确定性规避指数较高。

　　Chang: Hey, Kelly, let’s do something tonight.

　　Kelly: All right.

　　Chang: Please come over to my house and I’ll cook dinner for you.

　　Kelly: I have invited some friends over to my house for dinner tonight, but I don’t know if they’re coming.

　　Chang: Well ... as soon as you know if theyre coming, let me know.

　　Kelly: I won’t know until tonight.

　　Chang: What time?

　　Kelly: I won’t know until they call me. They’ll probably call later this afternoon.

　　Chang: How will you know whether or not to cook enough for everyone?

　　Kelly: Oh, I’ll make up something on the spot. I like to cook. I’ll whip up something fast.

　　Chang: But ... what if they dont come? Won’t they call and let you know?

　　Kelly: No ... if they dont come, I’ll know that something else came up. I’ll let you know as soon as I can.

　　Chang: Maybe we should plan my dinner for some other night.

　　Chang:嗨，Kelly，今天晚上咱们一起做点什么吧。

　　Kelly:好啊。

　　Chang:来我们家吧，我给你做饭。

　　Kelly:今天我已经请了几个朋友到我家吃饭，但我还不知道他们去不去。

　　Chang:呃…如果你有了确切的消息，就告诉我。

　　Kelly:我今天晚上才能知道。

　　Chang:什么时间？

　　Kelly:如果他们去，会在傍晚时候给我打电话的。

　　Chang:那你怎么能知道是否给他们做饭呢？

　　Kelly:哦，他们来了我再做也行。我喜欢做饭并且很快就能做好。

　　Chang:可是…如果他们不去怎么办？他们会打电话告诉你吗？

　　Kelly:不会…如果他们不去，我会知道他们可能有别的事情。那时我会尽快让你知道的。

　　Chang:要不咱们改天晚上再定吧。

　　In the above dialogue, Chang is confused by Kelly’s easy going attitude toward the evening’s plans. Coming from a strong-uncertainty-avoidant culture, Chang would prefer to plan ahead to avoid uncertainty and prepare her script for the evening. Kelly, on the other hand, is perfectly comfortable making plans based on how the evening progresses. Without a plan, how will Chang know how to act?

　　在上面这段对话中，Kelly对晚上的安排模棱两可，这让Chang感到很不理解。Chang所在的文化具有较强的不确定性规避习惯，因此，Chang喜欢事先做好打算，做好晚上的安排。Kelly正好相反，他可以根据事态的发展，再做出晚上的安排。没有计划，Chang会感到无所适从。

CONCLUSION结论

　　The United States is a country with low uncertainty avoidance; while China is a country with a comparativetly high uncertaity avoidance.

　　美国人的不确定性规避程度较低；中国人的不确定性规避程度则相对较高。

ANALYSIS深入分析

　　Uncertainty Avoidance

　　At the core of uncertainty avoidance the inescapable truism is that the future is unknown. Though we may all try, none of us can accurately predict the next moment, day, year, or decade. As the term is used by Hofsted, uncertainty avoidance“defines the extent to which people within a culture are made nervous by situations which they perceive as unstructured, unclear, or unpredictable, situations which they therefore try to avoid by maintaining strict codes of behavior and a belief in absolute truths.”

　　不确定性规避

　　显然，不确定性规避的核心就是认为未来不可知。虽然可能每个人都在预测未来，但是没有人能够丝毫无误地预知下一刻、下一天、下一年或下十年会发生什么事情。美霍夫斯泰德用不确定性规避一词来“界定一种程度，一种当人们遇到混乱不清、难以预测的情况时所感到的不安程度。通过对严格的行为方式的遵循和对绝对真理的信仰，他们尽力避免这些情况。”

　　High-Uncertainty Avoidance

　　High-Uncertainty avoidance try to avoid uncertainty and ambiguity by providing stability for their members, establishing more formal rules, not tolerating deviant ideas and behaviors, seeking consensus, and believing in absolute truths. They are also characterized by a higher level of anxiety and stress: People think of the uncertainty inherent in life as a continuous hazard that must be avoided. There is a strong need for written rules, planning, regulations, rituals, and ceremonies, which add structure to life. Nations with a strong uncertainty-avoidance tendency are Portugal, Greece, Peru, Belgium, and Japan. (see Table)

　　高度不确定性规避

　　高度不确定性规避文化为了避免不确定性和模糊性，常常向其成员提供稳定性，制定正式的规则，不容忍偏离观点和行为，寻求共识，并相信绝对的真理。他们感到的焦虑和压力较高：人们认为生活中的不确定性会持久为患，因此必须避免。为了增强生活的有序性，他们非常需要成文的规则、计划、规范、典礼和仪式。具有强烈不确定性规避倾向的国家有葡萄牙、希腊、秘鲁、比利时和日本(见表)。

　　Low-Uncertainty Avoidance

　　On the contrary, we find countries like Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, the United States, Finland, and the Netherlands have a low-uncertainty avoidance need. They more easily accept the uncertainty inherent in life and are not as threatened by deviant people and ideas, so they tolerate the unusual. They prize initiative, dislike the structure associated with hierarchy, and more willing to take risks, are more flexible, think that there should be as few rules as possible, and depend not so much on experts as on themselves. As a whole, members of low-uncertainty avoidance cultures are less tense and more relaxed - traits reflected in the Irish proverb“Life should be a dance, not a race.”

　　低度不确定性规避

　　相反，人们发现像瑞典、丹麦、爱尔兰、挪威、美国、芬兰和荷兰等国家，比较容易接受生活中的不确定性，不为偏离的人或主张所困扰，因此他们对不寻常性的容忍度比较强。他们喜欢上进，不喜欢等级关系。他们乐于冒险，灵活性强，认为规则越少越好，他们对专家的依赖性不强，而更多地相信自己。整体而言，低度不确定性规避文化心态较为放松，正如一句爱尔兰谚语所说：“生活应是舞蹈，而非赛跑。”

　　Differences in uncertainty avoidance affect intercultural communication. In a classroom composed of children from weak, uncertainty avoidance cultures we might expect to see students feeling comfortable in unstructured learning situations and students also being rewarded for innovative approaches to problem solving.

　　不确定性规避方面的差异影响跨文化交流。如果课堂上的孩子来自于低度不确定性规避文化，那么将他们置于自由的学习条件下并奖励那些创造性解决问题的学生，这种方式会让他们感到比较舒服。