Thinking About the American Presidency

美国总统制漫谈

（节选自《英语世界》2016年第11期）

To understand the American political system, it is important to grasp how little power the American president has at his disposal. 要了解美国的政治制度，关键是认识到美国总统权力是如何之小。

文/乔治·弗里德曼   译/陈平

By George Friedman

Now it is time to begin paying attention to the U.S. presidential elections scheduled for Nov. 8, 2016. The election begins roughly four years before it is held, sometime around the time when the last inauguration is held. The United States is a democratic republic in which the people elect representatives, and the ultimate representative is the president, the only office for which all Americans vote.

现在是时候开始关注将于2016年11月8日举行的美国总统大选了。总统竞选活动大致始于大选的4年前，差不多就是上一届总统就职典礼举办时。美国是民主共和国，人民选出代表，而作为最终代表的总统则是唯一一个由全体美国选民投票来决定的职位。

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It is important to remember that the American president is not powerless, but has limited power. He must align with a legislature divided into two houses, each with different and bizarre rules. He faces a Supreme Court that is frequently divided, and in our time able to paralyze any presidential program based on the vote of one aged Supreme Court Justice. He also faces 50 quasi sovereign states and is sometimes held responsible for the number of jobs created. But the truth is that the Federal Reserve Board has more power over the economy than the presi­dent. As to foreign policy, he is trapped by the realities of the powers arrayed in the world. He can do anything he wants internationally, so long as he has the power to do that, and the American pub­lic doesn't object.

重要的是记住，美国总统并非没有权力，而是权力受限。他必须与国会这个立法机构保持一致，即使国会本身分为两院，而且各有不同的离奇规则。他要面对一个常有分歧的最高法院，在我们这个时代一个年事已高的大法官可以一票终止总统的任何计划。他还要面对50个近乎主权独立的州政府，有时还得为就业率负责。但实际上美联储委员会对经济的影响力比总统大。在外交政策上，他受缚于国际政治的既定格局。只要他有足够的影响力，而美国公众也不反对，他可以在国际事务中为所欲为。

The American president is strangely a totem, the embodiment of the state like a monarch, while at the same time a mere mortal desperately trying to persuade someone to follow him. The early participants in presiden­tial elections believe they are shaping the future of the country. But presidents don't even have enough power to get judges they appoint confirmed by the Senate. Defining the future of the coun­try requires both an extraordinary moment, and extraordinary in­sight. Roosevelt's management of World War II might count for such a moment, but it is not clear that Wendell Willkie could not have done as well.

不可思议的是，美国总统是一个图腾，是像君主一样的国家的化身，而同时又是一个拼命说服别人跟着他走的凡人。总统选举中的早期参与者相信他们正在塑造这个国家的未来。但是，总统甚至没有足够的权力让参议院批准自己任命的法官。决定一个国家的未来需要特殊的时机和非凡的洞察力。罗斯福对二战的运筹帷幄可以算是这样一个非凡的时刻，但换作温德尔·威尔基说不定能做得同样好。

Nevertheless, the Ameri­can presidency was crafted for the unexpected moment, such as 9/11, where fundamental decisions need to be made within hours or days. When I vote for president, I ignore the policies and programs because they will rarely have the opportunity to pursue them. The American public is very clear in how it votes—it looks at the candidates, not the issues. This has been seen as a sign of shallowness. It is actually a sign of their deep understanding of the presi­dency.

说到底，美国总统一职是为了像“9·11”这种无法预料的时刻而设的，它要求总统在几个小时或几天内做出重大决定。当我投票选总统时，我会忽略政策和规划，因为他们基本没有机会去实施。很明显，美国公众投票是看人不看事的。这常被视作浅薄的标志。实际上这表示他们对总统一职有深刻的了解。

The most important decisions presidents make are the ones they were never prepared for and have no policy for. Truman and Korea. Eisenhower and Suez. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Johnson and Vietnam. What their farm programs might have been is of monumental irrelevance. First, they can propose but Congress and the courts must enact. Second, it was the crises that defined their presidency. They had no policy for any of these, because they did not know what was coming.

总统要做的最重要的决定都是他们从来不曾准备也无章可循的。杜鲁门对朝鲜，艾森豪威尔对苏伊士，肯尼迪对古巴导弹危机，约翰逊对越南，都是如此。与之相比，他们推进的农业计划完全无足轻重。首先，他们可以提出议案，但国会和法院必须批准才能执行。其次，正是此类危机决定了总统的是非功过。他们对这些危机是没有预定对策的，因为他们也不知道会发生什么。

When voters say they judge the person, what they are saying is that character is more important than the intentions. Intentions of presidents are crushed by history. Character, if you can glimpse it, tells you if the person is smart enough to understand the moment of history he is compelled to govern in, and the constraints it imposes on his choices. He needs to understand what is possible and impossible, in order that he have the ability to cause the least dam­age to the nation. Because in the end that's what presidents must do. And the president must have the strange com­bination of hubris in imagining being president, and modesty, in understand­ing how little it means. ■

当选民说他们在评判一个人时，他们的意思是品质比意愿更重要。总统的意愿总是被历史碾碎。而品质，如果你能瞥见它，可以告诉你这个人是否聪明到能够认清他作为总统被迫所处的历史时刻，以及这对他所做选择的种种约束。他需要知道什么可行，什么不可行，这样才能尽可能减少国家的损失。因为归根结底，这才是总统必须做的事。总统必定是这样一个奇妙的组合体，既有想象自己位居总统的傲娇，又有自知渺小的谦卑。□