促使中国物价上涨的原因是猪肉还是货币？

《经济学人》
Mar 13th 2008
From The Economist print edition

IN A country where bouts of inflation have triggered social unrest, thejump in China'sinflation rate to a 12-year high of 8.7% in February is cause for concern. Buteconomists are sharply divided on the cause of this inflation and the degree towhich policy needs to be tightened.

    在中国，阶段性的通胀曾经引发过社会的动荡，因此2月份通胀率跃升至8.7%着实让人担忧。但经济学家们却对通胀的原因以及政策该从紧到何种程度有激烈的分歧，普遍认为中国人民银行（PBOC）将很快再次提高利率和银行准备金率。很多人害怕1987-1988或者1993-1994的高通胀率再度重现，当时政府被迫大幅紧缩货币政策，并使经济硬着陆。

One difference between today and previous surges in inflation is that theincrease over the past year has been caused mainly by food prices, which jumpedby 23%. Vegetable prices are 46% higher than a year ago, pork is 63% dearer.The impact of various supply shocks, notably blue-ear disease which killedthousands of pigs, were aggravated last month by the worst snowstorms for 50years, damaging crops and disrupting transport. Non-food prices rose by only1.6% over the past year. In 1994, by contrast, non-food inflation hit 20%.

   而和之前的通胀高企所不同的是，如今近几年来的价格增长主要由食物引起，其跃升了23%蔬菜价格比一年前高了46%，而猪肉则贵了63%。而曾致死了上千头猪的蓝耳病为代表的各类供应面冲击，因为上个月50年以来最严重的雪灾里被大幅放大，雪灾毁坏了农作物，也让交通陷入混乱。不过非食物类的价格增长在去年仅上涨了1.6%。对比来看，在1994年，非食物类的通胀则高达20%。

To the extent that food prices have been pushed up by one-off supplyfactors, they should flatten later this year, causing inflation to fall. If so,it is argued, there is no need to slam on the brakes. Moreover, higher interestrates would do little to curb food prices. Some policy makers also worry thatif China raised interest ratessharply at the same time as Americais cutting them, this would attract bigger capital inflows and the extraliquidity could actually worsen inflationary pressures.

如果说食物价格是由一次性供应因素所推动，那今年晚些时候它就应该平缓下来，通胀率也会因此下降。如此就没有激烈限制通胀的必要了。其次，提高利率对限制食物价格作用寥胜于无。有些政策制定者还担心，在美国正在降息的时候，如果中国大幅提高利率将会吸引更大的资本流入，然后额外的流动性将会事实上加重通胀的压力。

Indeed, some economists believe that excess money is already partly toblame for rising inflation. In the past there has been a tight correlationbetween China'sinflation and money-supply growth. Monetary growth surged before both bouts ofinflation in 1987-88 and 1993-94. In 1993 the annual rate of growth of the M2measure of money hit 40%.

事实上，有经济学家相信过多的货币已经需要部分的为持续增高的通货膨胀负责。在过去，中国的通货膨胀和货币供给的增长有紧密的相关性。在1987-1988和1993-1994的阶段性通胀之前，货币供给都有大幅增长。在1993年，货币M2指标的年度增长率达到了40%。

Today it is less clear that the money supply is out of control. Over thepast year M2 rose by 17.5%, not much faster than the average during 1998-2003when prices were flat or falling. But Hong Liang, an economist at GoldmanSachs, reckons that the M2 measure of money understates the amount of liquiditysloshing around in China.She prefers M3, a broader measure, which includes deposits in non-bankfinancial institutions and securities issued by financial institutions.According to her calculations, M3 growth has risen sharply since 2005, fromaround 15% to 23%. This suggests that higher inflation could prove to be morepersistent and spread from food to other goods and services, requiring the PBOCto tighten by much more.

而今天，货币供给是否失去控制则没有那么明显。在去年全年，M2增长了17.5%，和物价平稳甚至有所下降的1998-2003年的均值相比，并没有加快很多。但高盛的经济学家梁鸿则认为，M2的货币指标低估了在中国已经泛滥的流动性。她更倾向于M3，一个更广泛的指标，它包括了非银行金融机构的存款和由金融机构发行的证券。根据她的计算，自2005年开始，M3就开始高速增长，自15%左右增至23%。而这就表示通胀的增长将更加持久，并将从食物扩散到其他商品和服务的领域，而中国人民银行则必须更大幅度的紧缩。

But another difference between today and previous bouts of inflation isthat in the past rising inflation went hand-in-hand with a wideningcurrent-account deficit—a classic symptom of overheating. Today China has ahuge surplus. This offers another tool to fight inflation: a more rapidappreciation in the yuan alongside a modest interest-rate rise could curbimported inflation and cause less harm to domestic demand. Indeed, this issomething that most economists can agree on: regardless of what is drivinginflation up, a stronger yuan would help to pull it down.

但另一个不同于之前的阶段性通胀的区别是，在过去，持续增长的通胀和经常账户赤字的扩张总是相伴产生，后者也是一个经典的经济过热的症状。今天中国则有一个巨大的盈余。这样就提供了另一个对抗通胀的工具：人民币升值加速而利率则平缓增长，这有助于控制输入型通胀且对国内需求的损害也较少。事实上，大多数经济学家在这一点上都能达成共识：无论物价上涨的驱动因素是什么，一个较强势的人民币都将有助于使其下降。