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欧瑞·艾亚 如何学习巴菲特建立投资框架

(2011-01-18 10:41:14)
标签:

股票

分类: 转载关于巴菲特的文章
  • 欧瑞·艾亚 如何建立投资框架
  • 2011-1-15    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》
  • http://www.capitalweek.com.cn/article_7872.html
  • 阅读笔记:在新兴市场运用巴菲特的长期价值投资策略,是中国学习巴菲特的投资者面临的一个重要问题和机遇,也是已经通过投资中石油和比亚迪进军中国这个最大新兴市场的巴菲特面临的问题和机遇,还是很多国际投资者非常感兴趣的问题和机遇。

  • 【《证 券市场周刊》记者 王存迎】艾亚曾经是一位计算机科学家,但他一直对金融和经济深感兴趣。2000年,读了沃伦·巴菲特的文章之后,艾亚开始对价值投资变得痴迷,并开始学习 顶级价值投资者如巴菲特、乔尔·格林布拉特和塞思·卡拉曼的著作,从而为自己的投资奠定了框架基础。他对价值投资的基本原理的直观感觉是:以低于内在价值 的价格购买证券,投资要在你的能力范围内,寻求大幅度的安全边际,并随着时间享受复利的滋润。

    2008年,经过对全球价值投资框架的不断 完善和实践改进,他终于准备推出了自己的基金——新兴市场资本价值管理基金(EVCM)。EVCM是一个侧重于长期的全球价值基金。在EVCM,他努力将 自己的理念和杰出投资者的价值观念相融合。他透露自己的毕生积蓄都投资于该基金,在EVCM“吃自己做的饭”。

    最近艾亚在一次采访中谈了他的投资哲学。下面是其中的一段摘录。

    你是如何平衡“拥抱短期的波动”和提高基金净值之间的关系?

    我 也像其他投资者一样不喜欢波动,不过我承认,在股票投资中有些波动难免会出现。一般来说,投资于我的基金的投资者是有着价值导向和有着纪律性的长期投资 者。聪明的投资者看基金时集中于其投资策略和其背后的逻辑,而忽视短期波动性。EVCM基金投资者迄今为止已经获得了良好的回报。那些在基金偶尔下跌中增 加投入资本的人,几个月下来已经取得了梦幻般的回报。

    你大部分时间和资源都用来做全球投资吗?是否是因为美国缺少投资机会,或者国外的投资市场有效性更差一些从而存在很多机会?

    即 使在今天,最有价值的投资都发生在美国,而且价值投资适用于美国股票市场。从我在国际投资领域的经验来看,我相信价值投资应该可以适用于全球市场。因此, 新兴价值基金投资策略的主要原则之一是全球性的价值投资。基于发现的非常好的投资机会,我们的投资分布于多个国家。当我在美国以外的地方投资时,这些投资 机会所具有的吸引力弥补了额外的地缘政治和宏观经济的风险。投资组合的建立是一个自下而上的过程。我没有对任何特定国家的资产投资分配计划。相反,我打开 我的“想法雷达”,在世界各地无论是发达国家还是新兴国家寻找最佳投资机会,并利用它们来构建投资组合。

    我现在最喜欢的投资主题是新兴市场中消费者数量和财富的增长,它是我所知的世界上最强大持久的投资主题。由于新兴市场人口逐步城镇化,他们都迅速持有资本,为自己创造财富,并增加购买力。为了从这一趋势中获利,我投资于那些服务于新兴市场消费者的企业。

    威 利食品(Willi-Food)就是一个很好的例子。它是以色列最大的一家犹太教食品和保健食品进口商之一。威利设计、进口、制造、销售和经营1000多 种食品。产品来源于世界各地的200多家供应商,客户则是包括以色列所有主要的食品零售商、批发商、以及以色列防御部队等。其80%的收入来自以色列,该 公司计划积极拓展美国欧洲以及其他国际市场。其中,犹太口味的产品吸引犹太人、穆斯林和具有健康意识的消费者。威利食品正积极瞄准这一巨大的国际市场,这 其中的任何成功都可以大大提高该公司的收入和利润。

    威利公司由Williger兄弟共同创办、拥有和管理。他们是保守型经理,他们的工作 推进了股东价值的稳定增长。在他们的管理下,公司销售收入已从1999年的3000万美元增加至1.2亿美元,而纯收入已从1999年180万美元增长到 2010年的800万美元。我参观了其在以色列的公司,毫不夸张地说,它给我留下深刻印象。

    威利的市值是8800万美元,该公司市值中大 约有一半为净现金,我期待其用此现金收购其他分销商。充足的现金,5倍市盈率(价格很便宜),盈利成长,抗衰退性的业务,具有较强的竞争优势(品牌、分 销、犹太诀窍、全球供应商网络),有经验的和行之有效的所有者管理团队,并且面临一个具有吸引力的增长通道(全球犹太食品市场),这些因素使得我对该公司 很看好。

    EVCM基金希望通过全球投资获得关键利益主要有几个,它们是货币多样化、投资于新兴市场的消费者、更大的投资机会集(更多的股票 和债券的选择)和低效导致的资产价格偏离(更多错误定价的资产)。欧元、美元、英镑和日元都面临严重问题,因此很难确定哪个发达市场的货币是“最糟糕 的”。总的来说,我认为,长期来看新兴市场和以大宗商品为基础的货币将比发达国家货币更受青睐。在最好的情况下,我能找到有着高回报的新兴市场的投资机 会,并且从新兴市场货币升值中受益。

Hedge Fund Manager Interview Series - Ori Eyal


Jan. 02, 2011

- Hedge Fund Manager Interview Series - Ori Eyal

Author:

Hunter

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=118584

In November, we announced we would be conducting interviews with emerging hedge fund managers (defined as less than $250M in AUM) as a regular feature on the blog. It gives me great pleasure to bring you the second edition of those interviews.



Ori Eyal is the portfolio manager for Emerging Value Capital Management, a global value fund based in NYC with investments around the world. In a recent speech to students at NYU, he remarked "Most of my investing knowledge comes from studying Mr. Warren Buffett and his value investing philosophy." Since 2008, he has materially outperformed the S&P 500 and a comparable world index. This is a fantastic interview and we hope you enjoy it!


In addition, if you or the fund you work for would like to be interviewed for upcoming editions of the emerging manager series, please send me an email (hunter [at] distressed-debt-investing.com)


Tell us a little bit about your background and the people that influenced your investment style?


While I started out as a Computer Scientist, I was always interested in finance and economics. Around the year 2000 I read “The Essays of Warren Buffett” and became a value investing addict. Studying the writings of top value investors including Warren Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, and Seth Klarman has helped lay the foundations for my investment framework. The basic tenets of value investing make intuitive sense to me: buying something for less than its worth, investing within your circle of competence, demanding a large margin of safety, and the power of compounding over time.


Ever since, I have been on a journey to learn from the masters of value investing and to develop my global value investing framework. I earned my MBA at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in 2006. I worked for Deutsche Bank as an analyst at one of their global investing funds. I also interned for several hedge funds, including Deephaven and Aquamarine.


In 2008, after a decade of developing and practicing my global value investing framework, I finally felt ready to launch my own fund, Emerging Value Capital Management (EVCM). EVCM is a long-biased global value fund. At EVCM, I strive to integrate my global value investing framework with the best practices and ideas from the value investors I have studied. My life savings are invested in EVCM fund so I “eat my own cooking.”


What were some takeaways from your experience with notable value investor Guy Spier?


I was very fortunate to work for Guy Spier at Aquamarine Fund while studying for my MBA. Guy Spier is an extremely talented and thoughtful investor who looks at the world as one global integrated market. Using his deep insights into how the world operates, and his latticework of mental models, Guy has been able to successfully identify and invest in some of the world’s greatest businesses.


At one point, Guy and I traveled to Israel together and we went to visit and research about 15 undiscovered companies in Israel. In some cases I think we were the first international investors that had ever visited them. Watching Guy interact with the management teams of these companies was a key learning event for me. He has the ability to quickly develop rapport with everyone in the room and get to the main business issues that each company faces. By the time the meeting is over, Guy has a better understanding of the business than the company management team does. Working for Guy helped me develop my global value investing framework. He taught me how to analyze great businesses and how to approach and interact with company management teams. He has been a great mentor, role model, and friend over the years. When I launched EVCM fund, Guy Spier was my biggest supporter and my first investor.


Zeke Ashton of Centaur Capital has also been a great mentor, teacher and friend. After I launched Emerging Value Capital, Zeke was kind enough to invite me to his office and has helped me further develop and refine my investment approach. Closely studying the fantastic investing framework that Zeke has developed as well as many of his specific investments, has been a tremendous learning experience for me. Particularly helpful has been studying Zeke’s excellent risk management framework and his covered call methodology.


I have also learned a lot (and continue to learn) from my interactions with great investors including Monish Pabrai, Whitney Tilson, Glenn Tongue, Mathew Richey, and Rick Reiss.


How do you balance "embracing short term volatility" and raising capital for a fund?


I don’t like volatility any more than other investors. However, I do recognize that some volatility is inevitable when investing in stocks. In general, all of my fund investors are disciplined, value oriented investors with a long term (multi-year) time horizon. Smart investors focus on the investing strategy and the logic and research behind the fund holdings while ignoring short term volatility in results. EVCM fund investors have earned a excellent return to date. Those that added capital when the fund had an occasional down month ended up earning fantastic returns.


You dedicate a substantial amount of your time and resources investing globally? Is that a function of the lower number of opportunities in the United States or more of sense that overseas markets are less efficient?


Even today, most value investing takes place in the U.S. and is applied to U.S. stocks. Having an international background, I became convinced that value investing can and should be applied to global markets. Therefore, one of the main tenets of my investment strategy at Emerging Value Fund is global value investing. I invest in various countries based on where I find the best investment opportunities. When I invest outside the U.S., I look for investment opportunities that are so attractive that they more than compensate me for bearing additional geo-political and macroeconomic risks. Portfolio construction is a bottom-up process driven by where I find the best investment opportunities at any given time. I don’t have a target allocation for any specific country. Rather, I keep my “idea radar” open for opportunities around the world in both developed and emerging countries. I search the world for the best investment opportunities and use them to construct the portfolio.


My favorite international investing theme is the growth in the number and in the wealth of emerging market consumers. It is one of the most powerful secular investment themes of which I am aware. As the emerging markets population urbanizes, it rapidly embraces capitalism, creates wealth for itself, and increases its purchasing power. To profit from this trend I seek to invest in businesses that sell to emerging market consumers. Willi-Food (discussed below) is an example of a company that is well positioned to benefit from this long term trend.


There are a few key benefits that EVCM fund expects to gain from global investing. These are currency diversification, exposure to emerging markets consumers, a larger investment opportunity set (more stocks and bonds to choose from) and less efficient asset prices (more mispriced assets to invest in). The Euro, the U.S. Dollar, the British Pound, and the Japanese Yen all face severe problems, making it difficult to determine which developed market currency is “the worst.” In general, I think that emerging market and commodity based currencies are likely to appreciate over time versus developed market currencies. Global investing allows me to diversify EVCM fund’s exposures between developed market currencies and, when possible, to shift our exposure from developed to emerging market currencies. In the best of cases, I can find investments in emerging markets where I expect to make a strong return both from the asset itself and from the local currency appreciating over time.


One of your main investment types is dubbed "Great Business at a Good Price" - can you give us an example or two today that would meet this criteria?


When evaluating potential investment opportunities, it helps to have a detailed framework or mental models for thinking about investing. My model tries to categorize investment opportunities into 4 different types:

    * Great business at a good price
    * Cheap Growth
    * Special situation
    * Global Macro

Obviously, real world investment situations are complex and don’t always exactly fit these models.


A good example of a current EVCM fund investment is Carrefour, the French retailer. It is the second largest retailer in the world, with operations in France, Spain, China, and Brazil. It is a great business, with a long history of profitability, and dividends, a strong balance sheet, a wide economic moat, and a recession resistant business model. At the same time, it is also a special situation investment. New management was instituted in 2007 by Colony Capital and Bernard Arnault and they are working hard to increase efficiency and cut costs. Also, there is a good chance they will spin off Carrefour’s significant real-estate assets into a separately listed company. I see a potential 50%+ upside when either of these 2 initiatives work out.


Do you prefer special situation investing? Where are you seeing the most opportunities amongst your various investment strategies?


Special situation investing is an attractive strategy that can provide high returns that are less correlated to the general market movement. Special situation also tend to have catalysts which unlock value when they occur. Having catalysts helps prevent the situation where you invest in an undervalued company and it remains undervalued for a long time. So yes, I like special situation, but I also like my other investment categories (great business, cheap growth, and global macro).


If you had to pick one investment today, that you had to hold for 10 years, what would it be?


That is a difficult question. The world today is changing at an accelerating rate which leads to the rapid erosion of economic moats. If forced to choose, I would pick Nestle which I believe is the world’s greatest business. Nestle is the world's leading food manufacturer with operations in more than 70 countries and with products in coffee, bottled water, milk and dietetics, prepared dishes, pet food, chocolate & confectionery and pharmaceuticals. Its brands include: Nescafe, Nestea, Nespresso, Carnation, Coffee Mate, Hot Pockets, Lean Cuisine, Kit-Kat, Dreyer’s Ice Cream, Eddy’s Ice Cream, Gerber baby food, Purina, Dog Chow and Friskies dog food. In addition, Nestle itself is an umbrella brand signifying quality and great taste to consumers around the world.


Nestle has excellent long term growth opportunities in emerging markets as the rising middle class shifts its discretionary spending to Nestlé’s brands.


I think Nestle is a safe way to invest in the growth of both developed and emerging market consumers and I expect that it will be larger, more dominant and more profitable 10 years from now.


Favorite long / short today? Reasons?


G. Willi-Food International (Nasdaq: WILC) is one of Israel's largest food importers with a focus on the Kosher and Health-Food segments. WILC designs, imports, manufactures, markets and distributes more than 1,000 food products. Products are sourced from 200+ suppliers throughout the world to more than 2,000 customers in Israel including all the major Israeli food retailers, wholesalers, and the Israeli defense forces. Imported products include: canned vegetables, fruits, pickles, canned fish, bakery products, lemon juice, high-quality oils, dried fruit, nuts, pasta, halva, coffee creamer, snacks, dairy products, noodles, and more. The Company adds 40-60 new products to its offerings each year.


In many cases, Willi-Food works with global food manufacturers to re-engineer both the food contents and the production lines into a kosher end-product. This end product is then imported and distributed in Israel under the Willi-Food brand. All Willi-Food products are certified Kosher according to strict rabbinical authorities, which positions Willi-Food as a strong competitor in the lucrative kosher products market. Although most of the Company’s products are sold under its own brand, Willi-Food distributes a variety of items from world-leading manufacturers, such as Completa coffee whitener (Netherlands), Zanetti cheese (Italy), Breda butter (Netherlands), Nobleza Gaucha Yerba Mate tea (Argentina), Lurpak “spreadable” butter (Denmark) and Arla Foods dairy products (Denmark). In addition, Will-Food provides some products on a private label basis.


While 80% of revenue is from Israel, the company's activities extend beyond importing into the Israeli market. Willi-Food distributes its products in both the USA and Europe and is actively working on expanding its sales in these and other international markets. The kosher food market is estimated to be over $14B/ year in the USA alone. It is growing at 15% per year and is underserved with few branded kosher products. Among others, kosher products appeal to Jews, Muslims, and Health conscious consumers. Willi-Food is actively targeting this huge international market and any success here could dramatically increase the company’s revenues and profits.


WILC is owned and managed by the Williger brothers who co-founded the company. They are conservative managers that have done a good job at slowly and steadily growing shareholder value. Under their management, revenue has grown from $30M in 1999 to $120M in 2010 while net income has grown from $1.8M in 1999 to $8M in 2010. I visited the company in Israel and I was favorably impressed by what I saw.


WILC’s market cap is $88M. The company has about half its market cap in net cash and is looking to deploy this cash to acquire a US distributor. Net of cash, WILC trades at 5X 2010 earnings, a cheap price for a profitable, growing, recession resistant business with strong competitive advantages (brand, distribution, kosher know-how, global supplier network), a team of experienced and proven owner-managers, and with an attractive growth runway (global kosher food market).


What is the greatest piece of investment advice you like to adhere to in managing a portfolio on a day-to-day basis?


The key to long-term wealth creation is not earning high returns. Rather, it is earning good returns while avoiding (or minimizing) the blow-ups. The biggest mistake that investors make is not investing in a conservative enough manner. The world is a dangerous place for capital. Inflation, expropriation, revolution, currency devaluation, industry declines, wars, natural disasters, depressions, market meltdowns, black swans, theft, fraud, and taxes all pose a constant and lurking threat to growing (or even just maintaining) wealth over time. In any given year, the probability of disaster is small. But over many years and decades anything that can go wrong eventually will.


As long as we can stay in the game, the long-term power of compounding will work in our favor. A 10% real annual return will multiply our money over 117 times in 50 years. But having even one single year with catastrophic losses undoes years of great performance. Simply put, the key to amassing wealth over time is avoiding catastrophic losses and never having to start over from scratch. When things go wrong, we can avoid catastrophic losses only by investing conservatively and without leverage. Conservative investing is like insurance—it seems like a waste of money until something bad happens and then you are glad to have it.


I see funds that use leverage (either at the portfolio level or by investing in highly levered companies), and I see funds that are too concentrated. Over the long run, leverage and excessive concentration usually end badly.


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