巴菲特的十年赌局略有起色

作者: Carol J. Loomis    时间: 2010年04月29日 

巴菲特打赌标准普尔500指数将跑赢对冲基金。在逐渐复苏的市场上，到底谁能卷土重来？

http://www.fortunechina.com/investing/c/2010-04/29/content_34681.htm

    2008年，沃伦•巴菲特（Warren Buffett）与纽约的理财公司Protégé Partners打赌：在未来十年里，低费率指数型基金的收益率将高于某些组合型对冲基金（funds-of-hedge-funds）。2009年，在这个“巴菲特大赌局”的第二年，据未经审计的年度业绩报告显示，股神先赢一局。在过去这一年里，巴菲特选择的一支标准普尔500指数（S&P 500 index）基金，平均收益率为26.2%，而Protégé Partners选择的五支组合型基金，平均收益率仅为15.9%。

    不过，尽管巴菲特在2009年大获全胜，但尚不足以撼动Protégé在风雨飘摇的2008年取得的领先地位。没错，纵观两年来的业绩表现，赌局双方其实都在赔钱。但Protégé Partners所选组合型基金的收益率仅下降了11.8%，而巴菲特选择的标准普尔基金下降了20.2%。

    双方的基金收益都是扣除了全部费用、成本和支出后的数字。根据这场赌局的约定，Protégé从未公布过他们选择的五支基金的名称，而其中有一支据猜测是Protégé Partners公司自己经营的组合型基金。

    当然，巴菲特知道这五支基金的名称，并且也看过它们2008年经过审计的业绩报告，今年晚些时候，他还将看到审计后的2009年业绩报告。

    尽管如此，双方在去年秋季商定，将于每年春季公布所选基金上一年的“大致”业绩情况，这样恰好赶在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）年会举行之前发布，以便巴菲特在年会上对这些基金的表现进行评价。今年该公司年会将于5月1日（本周六）在奥马哈举行。

    巴菲特“信赖”的这只指数型基金是先锋集团（Vanguard）的标普500 Admiral基金（S&P 500 Admiral fund）。

    从某种意义上说，到目前为止，这场赌局中的基金并无反常表现。2009年，金融市场显然进入了上升通道，在这种情况下，对冲基金往往无法跑赢大盘。

    然而，在光景不好的年份，比如2008年，则是对冲基金的天下。因为对冲基金能够进行卖空操作，同时其投资对象又不只限于股票，因此能减少损失，从而领先于标准普尔指数基金。事实确实如此，在2008年，标普Admiral基金股票狂泻37.02%，而Protégé的基金“仅”下跌了23.9%。

    在这场赌局中，赌注大约为100万美元。之所以说“大约”，是因为牵涉到现值因素。事实上，根据协议，双方各自出资32万美元，作为赌注，随后，这64万美元被用于购买无息债券，而到2017年底该赌局结束时，这笔投资将增值至100万美元。

    这笔奖金最终将捐给赢家指定的慈善机构。如果Protege Partners获胜，款项将捐给总部设在伦敦的国际慈善机构ARK（Absolute Return for Kids）；而如果巴菲特最终获胜，这100万美元将进入他指定的格罗斯公司（Girls Inc）。

    而这笔赌金，即无息债券，由旧金山的今日永存基金会（Long Now Foundation）保管，在赌局结束时，将由该机构旗下的Long Bets项目向赢家支付。巴菲特与Protégé都已在Long Bets的网站上发布了自己能赢得这场赌局的理由。

    ——本文作者是沃伦•巴菲特的朋友，也是每年的《巴菲特致伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股东信》的编辑。

    译者：陈宝

Buffett's longest bet looking better

http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/27/news/companies/buffett_protege.fortune/

(Fortune) -- Unaudited results are in for the second year of "Buffett's Big Bet" -- Warren Buffett's 2008 wager against Protégé Partners that a low-fee index fund will outperform certain funds of hedge funds -- and the famous investor has gained some ground on his challenger. In the 2009 segment of the 10-year bet, an S&P 500 index fund -- that's Buffett's pick -- outdid the average performance of the five funds of funds that New York-based money management firm Protégé backs, 26.2% to 15.9%.

But Buffett's spurt was not enough to undo the lead that Protégé's funds had racked up in the turbulent year of 2008. True, the standings for the two years combined show both contenders having lost money. But Protégé's picks are down 11.8%, less than the S & P's minus 20.2%.

Buffett does know the names of the five funds and has seen their audited results for 2008. He will not see 2009 audited results for the funds until later this year.

The two sides, however, agreed last fall that "approximate" results for the previous year would be announced each spring, in time to be discussed by Buffett at the Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) annual meeting, which is to take place in Omaha this week, on Saturday, May 1st.

The precise index fund "bought" by Buffett is Vanguard's S&P 500 Admiral fund (VFIAX).

In a sense, the horses in this race have so far run true to form. In an up period for the market, which 2009 obviously was, the general market often beats hedge funds.

But in a bad year, and 2008 certainly fits that description, the short selling that many hedge funds engage in and their freedom to roam beyond stocks allows them to cut their losses and whip the S&P. In 2008, S&P's Admiral shares were down a devastating 37.02%, The Protégé funds managed to fall by "only" 23.9%.

The money involved in this bet is $1 million -- sort of. That qualification is necessary because of a present-value factor. Each side originally put up $320,000 as its wager. The total funds of about $640,000 were next used to buy a zero-coupon bond that will have appreciated to a value of $1 million at the end of 2017, when the bet concludes.

That prize will then go to the winner's charity. If Protégé wins, it wishes the money to go to Absolute Return for Kids, an international philanthropy based in London. Buffett has designated Girls Inc. to get the money if he wins.

The party holding the money -- that zero-coupon bond -- is Long Now Foundation of San Francisco, which oversees a mechanism called Long Bets that will pay off the bet. Both Buffett and Protégé have posted arguments on Long Bets' Website that explain why each thinks its bet will win.

--The writer of this article is a friend of Warren Buffett's and the editor of his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders. http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/images/bug.gif