巴菲特45年投资回报率击败所有共同基金

　　新浪财经讯 北京时间周五晚间消息 当巴菲特称其股东在过去45年里投资年度回报率在20%时，许多投资者不禁感到羡慕，即使业绩最好的共同基金也只能望其项背。

　　投资研究公司Morningstar Inc。提供的数据显示，在巴菲特任伯克希尔哈撒韦董事长期间，表现最好的两只基金之一，Fidelity Magellan Fund的年平均回报率为16.3%，Templeton Growth Fund的年度回报率为13.4%。

　　若按股价计算，伯克希尔哈撒韦A股自1965年以来年度回报率为22%，但巴菲特更喜欢用净值来衡量投资收益。若按净值计算，年度回报率为 20.3%。

　　其实用股价涨幅与共同基金进行比较才更为公平，如果在1964年10月1日投资给巴菲特1万美元(相当于现在6万美元)，那么现在这笔投资价值 为8000万美元。

　　如果将这笔钱投资给Fidelity，那么这笔投资现在值910万美元，如果投给Templeton Growth，那么现在大约值290万美元。

　　以上统计截至日期是2009年年底，总时间为45年。在此期间标准普尔500指数年度回报率为9.3%，即1万美元将增值至近56万美元。在 1965年初，共同基金总数为145只。

　　以上的计算反映出复利的威力，虽然每年的差别仅有几个百分点，但最终结果大不一样。

　　基金有业绩压力

　　与共同基金的基金经理相比，巴菲特拥有更多机构上的自由，因此，他们之间并没有100%的可比性。但这一不同也反映出共同基金的局限性，大多数 基金经理需要面对近期业绩的压力。

　　Morningstar共同基金分析师Jonathan Rahbar指出，“巴菲特在整个任期里一直劝说投资者将自己视为公司的拥有者，而不是投资者。这一点符合他的长期投资风格。”

　　他表示，“共同基金经理每年都有业绩压力，如果有一年或两年收益不佳，投资者可能就会将基金赎回。”

　　Rahbar承认，基金评级公司如Morningstar也可能是问题的一部分，但他称Morningstar更重视基金的长期表现。一位巴菲 特投资者认为基金行业的结构使基金经理难以能够象巴菲特那样进行投资。

　　Sanibel Captiva Trust Co。资深基金经理Timothy Vick表示，“共同基金需要向机构发行基金，而机构通过会要求基金按他们喜欢的风格投资，这些机构还希望基金经理能够满仓投资。他们按季度考核基金经 理，每年都会换掉几个基金经理。”

　　短期业绩压力使基金经理倾向于频繁操作。Morningstar的统计显示，共同基金平均1年就会将仓位全部换掉一次，这与巴菲特的作法完全相 反。

　　Vick是《如何象巴菲特那样选股》一书的作者。他表示，他的公司持有一只股票通常的期限是8至10年，投资组合中每年换手率在10%至15% 之间。他表示，基金行业每年100%的平均换手率使投资变得更象是赌博。

　　像巴菲特那样投资

　　Templeton成长基金采取了一种低价买进价值投资战略，他们在股票被严重低估时买进并长期持有。Morningstar提供的数据显 示，Templeton的年度换手率略高于10%。

　　Morningstar资深共同基金分析师Kevin McDevitt指出，实际上这只基金的投资风格与巴菲特有许多相似之处，它买进的股票在牛市中上涨，在熊市里搞跌，这也是这只基金业绩良好的重要原因。

　　但即使这只基金也受到来自机构投资者的压力。这只基金在机构投资者的要求下无法完全坚持自己的投资策略并不得不满仓操作。这只基金在前几年通常 会留有10%至20%的现金，这一策略使其能够很好地规避下跌市道的风险。在2000、2001与2002年，标准普尔500指数分别下跌了 9.1%，11.9%与22.1%，而Templeton成长基金的A股分别上涨了1.7%，0.5%与下跌9.5%。该股在2008年满仓操作，结果下 跌了43.5%。

　　Franklin Resources Inc。发言人(Templeton成长基金管理者)表示，满仓操作在2009年能使收益最大化，这只基金在2009年上涨了31%。

　　据每股净值计算，伯克希尔哈撒韦在2000年上涨了6.5%，在2001年下跌了6.2%，在2002年上涨了10%。该股在2008年下跌了 9.6%，在去年上涨了19.8%。在2008年与2009年，标准普尔500指数分别下跌了37%与上涨26.5%。

　　巴菲特向股东表示，“我们的股票在下跌市中许多年头的表现均落后于标准普尔500指数，但在标准普尔11个下跌年头里，我们均跑赢了该指数。换 句话说，我们的防守能力要强于进攻能力。”

　　但这种投资策略需要耐心，而耐心在基金世界里十分稀缺。

　　McDevitt表示，“基金行业所面临的压力使这一策略无法实行，巴菲特拥有更多的自由。”

　　Stifel Nicolaus & Co。分析师Meyer Shields透露，巴菲特在2007年底拥有440亿美元现金，占其投资组合中的比例为35%左右，当然其中一部分现金巴菲特将用于收购一家公司。

　　即使在今天几乎零利率情况下，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦仍持有大量现金。

　　巴菲特在周六出版的给股东的信中表示，“我们通常拥有200亿美元以上的现金，虽然现金收益率微乎其微，但却能够让我们在晚上睡个好觉。”

　　与Templeton不同的是，Fidelity Magellan是一只偏重于成长性的基金。与其它基金不同的是，这只基金的业绩十分不稳定，它的大部分成功主要来自林奇1977至1990掌舵时期，这 只基金期间年度回报率达到29%。

　　Morningstar基金分析师Christopher Davis表示，“这的长期回报率仍建立在林奇的成功之上。”

　　林奇也采取长期持有策略，投资组合换手率很低。在他任职基金，Magellan的资产金额非常小，这只基金现在管理着250亿美元左右。巴菲特 自己也承认，管理的资金越大，越难取得理想的效果。

　　他在给股东的信中表示，“资金规模的增长使我们的投资优势大为减弱，这种令人不愉快的趋势将会继续延续。”

　　Magellan基金在截至3月2日的10年里平均每年损失2%，造成这一不良业绩的一个原因在于基金规模过大，另一个原因是基金经理跳槽率过 高，这是巴菲特与共同基金的重要的不同之处。

　　自1963年基金成立以来，Magellan一直有7位基金经理，这些基金经理所采取的策略不同，业绩也有很大差距。而巴菲特一直按其自己的方 式来经营伯克希尔哈撒韦。

　　Rahbar表示，“巴菲特管理伯克希尔哈撒韦的时间要比基金经理持股的时间都长。”

Buffett's Gains Beat Every Mutual Fund

Just Two Come Close Over Past 45 Years

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703502804575102041168014462.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

By SAM MAMUDI

Many investors can only look on with envy when Warren Buffett says his investors have seen 20% annualized gains over the past 45 years—even the best mutual funds pale by comparison.

Only two funds are even on the horizon: Fidelity Magellan Fund, which has returned 16.3% a year during Mr. Buffett's chairmanship of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and Templeton Growth Fund, up 13.4% a year on average, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc.

Berkshire's Class A shares have delivered returns of 22% a year since 1965, based on market price, though Mr. Buffett prefers to judge gains according to book value, which stand at 20.3%.

Using Berkshire's market-price gains for fairer comparison with mutual funds, $10,000 invested with Mr. Buffett on Oct. 1 1964—equivalent to about $60,000 in today's dollars—would now be worth about $80 million. The same amount in Fidelity's fund would have grown to about $9.1 million, while Templeton Growth investors would now have roughly $2.9 million.

The returns covered the 45 years through the end of 2009. During that period the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 9.3% on an annualized basis—$10,000 would have grown to nearly $560,000. There were 145 mutual funds at the start of 1965.

Mr. Buffett has more structural freedom than mutual-fund mangers, so comparing their performance isn't apples to apples. But the differences highlight the limits of mutual funds, particularly the short-term pressures many managers face.

"Throughout his tenure he's been a huge proponent of investors thinking of themselves as owners of companies rather than investors, [which fits his] extremely long-term approach," said Jonathan Rahbar, mutual-fund analyst at Morningstar, about Mr. Buffett. "Mutual-fund managers have incentive to do well on a year-in-year- out basis; if things don't go well for a year or two, they'll see outflows."

Fund-ratings firms such as Morningstar might be part of this problem, Mr. Rahbar conceded, though he said his firm focuses more on long-term performance. But according to one Berkshire investor, the structure of the fund industry makes it harder to invest as he does.

"Mutual funds have to sell to institutions who lump them into style boxes and expect them to be fully invested," said Timothy Vick senior portfolio manager at Sanibel Captiva Trust Co. "And those institutions review a manager quarterly and they change some managers every year."

The short-term pressures lead many fund managers to busily buy and sell as they seek to gain a short-term edge—the average fund turns over its entire portfolio every year, according to Morningstar—the antithesis of Mr. Buffett's approach.

Mr. Vick, author of the book "How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett," said his firm typically wants turnover of no more than 10% to 15%—holding a stock for between eight to 10 years. Of the fund industry's 100% turnover average, he says, "it's like a gambling den."

Templeton Growth uses a value deep value strategy, buying stocks when they are cheap, and keeps its turnover low, at just over 10%, Morningstar says. In fact the fund shares many similarities with Mr. Buffett, owing its good performance mostly to consistent, if not overwhelming, gains in good markets and holding up well in down markets, said Kevin McDevitt, senior mutual fund analyst at Morningstar, who covers the fund.

Unlike the Templeton fund, Magellan is a growth-tilted fund. But unlike the other fund, its performance has been unsteady; most of its success came during the record-breaking run of manager Peter Lynch from 1977 to 1990, during which the fund saw annualized returns of 29%.

"Its very long-term returns are still living off Lynch's success," said Christopher Davis, fund analyst at Morningstar.

Mr. Lynch also had a low-turnover approach, and during his tenure Magellan, which today has about $25 billion in assets, was much smaller—it's hard to get outsize results when managing huge sums, as Mr. Buffett himself has acknowledged.

Write to Sam Mamudi at smamudi@marketwatch.com

Shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway far outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 stock index over the decade of the 2000s, with a gain of 76.8 percent.

The S&P dropped 24.1 percent, excluding dividends, over the same ten-year period ending today (Thursday.)

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Buffett beat the S&P in six of the 10 calendar years, but 2009 was not a winning year for the Oracle.

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/091231A_ChartBRK_SP.gif

Berkshire did manage a small gain of 2.7 percent this year, but the S&P's surged 23.5 percent, excluding dividends  That ends a three-year winning streak for Buffett & Co.

It's the S&P's biggest annual winning margin since the tech bubble days of 1999 when the benchmark beat Berkshire by over 39 percentage points.  (Berkshire won by double-digits the next three years.)

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [BRK.A  Loading...      ()   http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/backgrounds/realtime_icon.gif]

Class B: [BRK.B  Loading...      ()   http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/backgrounds/realtime_icon.gif]

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