目前2009巴菲特股东大会最完整的记录--英文版(2)
(2009-05-08 23:57:44)
标签:
巴菲特股东大会记录财经 |
分类: 转载关于巴菲特的文章 |
10:24
Becky Quick of CNBC says a question about three candidates for CEO successor: What are benefits of bringing in CEO early to give that person a chance to get used to the job? Buffett says he has heard that question before. Buffett says if there was a good way to inject someone into a role that would that person a better CEO for Berkshire, they would do that. But he says the three CEOs are running major businesses right now, and to sit in the office while Buffett is reading or on the telephone -- there is really nothing to do. He says "it would be a waste of
talent." Buffett says the three candidates are 100 percent ready
for the job right now. He says the biggest job they will have is
developing relationships with potential buyers of
businesss, with the world at large, with the
shareholders. He says that will take time, though not a great deal
of time. He says they know how to run businesses, and they probably
would do some things better
than he
would. Munger
says a lot of models that have worked well in the world, like
Johnson and Johnson, work something like Berkshire and these
talents pop up in the subsidiaries.
10:32
A shareholder asks Buffett to explain his investment strategies, like value investing, and how teach young people. Buffett says he brings in college students to talk with them each year. Buffett says he tells them it is important to know how to value a business and to know how to judge the markets. He says there would be nothing about modern portfolio theory or anything like that. He says it is important to know your circle of competence, start small and learn as you go along. Buffett says some accounting principles also are important. And then learn about market fluctuations and learn that the market is there to serve you. And that is not an issue of a high IQ, but rather an emotional stability and inner peace about the decisions you have made. Munger says there is the basic problem of always
having half the future investors in the
world in the bottom 50 percent.
Munger says largely people should reduce the
nonsense. Buffett and Munger agree that emotional
makeup is more important than a high IQ. Buffett
says he is asked by college students, "what are we being taught
that is wrong?" Munger asks how Buffett can handle that question in
just one session.
10:36
Buffett is asked how he would replace someone like Ajit Jain in the insurance division. Buffett says you don't, that Jain is unique. But authority does not go to the position -- it goes to the person.
10:46
A shareholder asks how Buffett views the markets'
valuation of Berkshire shares. The market has it down 30 percent,
while earnings were not down that far. Buffett says the shareholder
put his finger on something there. Buffett says the investments are
what they are in the stock market, so he does not have a problem
with that side of the equation. Buffett says the
earning power of businesses were down last year
and will not do as well this year. But they
are by and large good businesses. He says a few
of them have problems, others will do very well. Buffett
says Berkshire was cheaper in the stock market
last year than its intrinsic value would
indicate, but most companies were in the same
boat. Buffett says over time, both stock price and intrinsic value
will increase. And he hopes the operating companies over time will
do better. Munger says last year was a bad year for
a float business, making the owner of the float
(insurance premiums held by Berkshire that can be invested) appear
to be worth less than the owner
will be worth over time. Munger says Berkshire's
casualty insurance business is probably the best in the world. He
says other companies in Berkshire's holdings also rank high in the
world. Munger says if you think it is easy to get in the position
that Berkshire occupies, you are living in a different world than
the one that I occupy. Buffett says Berkshire's
insurance business is
remarkable, with remarkable managers. Buffett
says with the economic meltdown, like the China Syndrome or
something, it hurt jewerly and NetJets and other businesses,
American Express, etc. But the meltdown also caused the phones to
ring more at Geico. Buffett says all of a sudden
saving money became very important. Buffett says
that builds a lot of value over time. Buffett says Geico is now the
third largest auto insurer in the country this year and the
fundamentals are in place to take Geico much
higher.
10:59
A shareholder asks about the federal stimulus bill, saying only 8 percent is aimed at infrastructure. He asks should not more of that bill go to real assets and put numerous people to work? Munger says "Let me answer that one. Yes!" Buffett says that should be the goal. Buffett says anytime government or anything else throws a lot of resources into something, there is a lot of slop. Buffett says the intent though, is to get a lot of money into action and used smartly. Buffett says when the consumer pulls back the way they have, government needs to step in. Buffett also says there will be consequences. "I think we should be doing it, but we shouldn't think its a free ride."
11:04
In response to one question, Buffett says Berkshire is at a disadvantage because the cost of investment for the company is higher than for companies that have received government bailout money. Buffett says the cost of investment is a lot higher than for a company that is in trouble. Buffett says that is just a fact of life right now. He says there are the blessed who have a government guarantee, and others who don't. Buffett says Berkshire will have to find ways to
adjust. Buffett says the utility company
uses most of Berkshire's borrowed money. By and
large after that, Berkshire uses the float from its insurance
premiums, and that cost of borrowing is less than zero over time.
Buffett sys he does not have an answer for
going head to
head against a company that has a government
guarantee. Munger says Berkshire is at a funding
disadvantage but it is not regulated like a bank.
He says Berkshire should not dwell on this one disadvantage.
11:09
A shareholder asks what the late Ben Graham, who
taught Buffett a good deal of what he knows about investments,
would have said about derivatives? Buffett says he would not have
liked them. Buffett says Graham probably also would say if he saw
one mispriced he would act on it, but avoid the traps that others
might fall into. Munger says derivatives
basically are a dirty business. He says we need less of these kinds
of financial instruments.
11:14
A shareholder asks if starting a smaller investment fund today what do about high returns on some stocks? Reinvest earnings somewhere else or sit on the high returns in the name of value investing? Buffett says he would buy good companies and keep them. And not worry about the stock price.
11:19
A shareholder says Berkshire's competitive advantage is Buffett and Munger. Buffett says that is not true. He says Berkshire's competitive advantage is a business model that is hard to copy. Buffett says for example shareholders hold onto Berkshire stock, with little turnover. He says there is no other company in the country that has the ability to do that now, or the ability to adopt that model in any big way. Buffett says any new CEO will be dedicated to that model in the future. Buffett
says managers and shareholders
joining the company are immersed in that culture.
Munger says a lot of corporations in America are run
stupidly with profits each quarter guiding
decisions. Munger says that is
not the case with Berkshire.
11:29
Buffett is asked why people shouldn't just invest in companies that Berkshire invests in, and not
in Berkshire itself? And why is
the meeting not Webcast? Buffett says the meeting could be Webcast,
but there is a lot to be gained with face-to-face contact. He says
people come to see each other and Berkshire products. Buffett says
in terms of buying securities Berkshire buys, a lot of peple do
that. He says, though, that they don't have free float. If they had
$58 billion then they would be at the same level
as Berkshire. Munger says generally they would be smart to copy
Berkshire's investment moves. Munger says "I
think you have a very good idea." Buffett says
he used to look at Graham's moves and he got
ideas from them.
11:32
Buffett is asked about inflation. He says the country will have inflation, and people holding government debt in the form of bonds will pay for that. Buffett says a good deal of that debt is being held by the Chinese. Buffett says the best protection against inflation is your own earning power. He says if you are the best teacher or whatever, you will command earning power and get your share of the national economic pie, regardless of the value of the currency. The second best investment, Buffett says, is in a good company. He says people will give up their own earnings to enjoy whatever product your company is making. Munger suggest becoming a brain surgeon and investing in Coca Cola instead of government bonds.
11:39
Buffett is asked at what price does it become compelling to invest in newspapers, and at what point does it become not a good investment? Buffett says newspapers problems have been accelerated by the financial crisis, but it is not the cause of newspaper problems. Buffett says he would not buy a newspaper stock at any price. He says they could well suffer endless losses. He says there was a time when they had pricing power and they were essential to consumers and advertisers. Now they have lost that essential nature, sports scores and other facts can be found elsewhere. Buffett says nobody liked buying ads in the newspaper but they did so because they worked. Buffett says that no longer is the case. Buffett says he will retain ownership of the Buffalo News however, and has been urged to do so. Buffett says Berkshire has worked with the unions in trying to have economi model that keeps making a little money. Buffett says as long as not face endless losses, and no union problems, we will stick with the compnay. Buffett says the Washington Post has some good businesses (and Berkshire has stock in the Post) but it does not have answers to the newspaper business. Buffett sys no one has found a new model for newspapers. Buffett says the Buffalo News is among newspapers playing out the game for as long as it can. Munger says loss of newspapers is a national tragedy. They have kept government honest and etc. and as they disappear what replaces them will not be as desirable as what the nation is losing. But he says, "such is life."
11:42
Buffett says retail is hit hard, but consumers will not spend a lot over the next few years. Berkshire's retail businesses will not do well for a period of time. Retail real estate like shopping centers will struggle, Buffett says. Buffett says the government urged people to save for years, and now that they are saving government is not pleased. Buffett says Berkshire's construction related businesses also will struggle, particuarly in some parts of the country like Florida, more than in
some other parts of the country.
11:47
Buffett is asked about Berkshire buying back its own shares. Buffett says most of repurchasing of shares recently has been foolish because the stocks were too expensive. Buffett says many companies did so to send out unjustified buy recommendations, though they would not admit that. Buffett says only in about 2000 did Berkshire think it might be worth buying back its own shares becuase it was demonstrably lower than intrinsic value. Buffett says that situation does not exist now. Buffett says 90 percent of repurchase decisions recently have not been for
the good for the stockholder.
11:47
A shareholder says the new q-and-a format is very good and this one of the best annual meetings he has attended.
11:52
The same shareholder asks about opportunity costs of recent decisions made by Berkshire. Buffett says the situation recently has been fluid and fast moving. He says one key is Berkshire keeping a lot of cash around. But he says Berkshire got a lot of calls, and one of them was from Goldman Sachs, with a $5 billion investment. But that deal might not have happened even a week earlier than the call came in. And Berkshire actually sold some stock to remain comfortable cash-wise. Buffett says Berkshire was faced with the opportunity cost question in several situations that happened very quickly. Buffett says if something happened chaotic next week, it might move on some deals. Buffett says it also is hard to move billions of dollars from one holding to another. Buffett says he does live the opporuntity to make those kinds of decisions. Buffett says he had not faced in quite some time the kind of opportunities it saw last year. .
12:08
Buffett says one mistake he made this year was buying into some Irish banks that were
into some bad investments that he overlooked.
Along the same lines, Buffett says
there were a lot of signs that
some banks in the United States were making bad
decisions around the U.S. housing market that relied on high
degrees of leverage. Buffett says people looking closely could have
seen those signs. Buffett says with Freddie and Fannie for example,
it was pretty clear what was going to happen. Buffett says
generally speaking for people that don't spend a lot of time on
their investments, they will have a lot of trouble separating
financial institutions. Munger says there is another problem:
General accounting principles allow banks to show high earnings
based on foolish investments. Munger says that kind of accounting
should not be allowed. Munger also says a lot of
new regulations coming down the pike would not be needed simply if
good, current accounting rules were better
followed.
12:09
The meeting is on lunch break.
Becky Quick of CNBC says a question about three candidates for CEO successor: What are benefits of bringing in CEO early to give that person a chance to get used to the job? Buffett says he has heard that question before. Buffett says if there was a good way to inject someone into a role that would that person a better CEO for Berkshire, they would do that. But he says the three CEOs are running major businesses right now, and to sit in the office while Buffett is reading or on the telephone -- there is really nothing
10:32
A shareholder asks Buffett to explain his investment strategies, like value investing, and how teach young people. Buffett says he brings in college students to talk with them each year. Buffett says he tells them it is important to know how to value a business and to know how to judge the markets. He says there would be nothing about modern portfolio theory or anything like that. He says it is important to know your circle of competence, start small and learn as you go along. Buffett says some accounting principles also are important. And then learn about market fluctuations and learn that the market is there to serve you. And that is not an issue of a high IQ, but rather an emotional stability and inner peace about the decisions you have made. Munger says there is
10:36
Buffett is asked how he would replace someone like Ajit Jain in the insurance division. Buffett says you don't, that Jain is unique. But authority does not go to the position -- it goes to the person.
10:46
A shareholder asks how Buffett
10:59
A shareholder asks about the federal stimulus bill, saying only 8 percent is aimed at infrastructure. He asks should not more of that bill go to real assets and put numerous people to work? Munger says "Let me answer that one. Yes!" Buffett says that should be the goal. Buffett says anytime government or anything else throws a lot of resources into something, there is a lot of slop. Buffett says the intent though, is to get a lot of money into action and used smartly. Buffett says when the consumer pulls back the way they have, government needs to step in. Buffett also says there will be consequences. "I think we should be doing it, but we shouldn't think its a free ride."
11:04
In response to one question, Buffett says Berkshire is at a disadvantage because the cost of investment for the company is higher than for companies that have received government bailout money. Buffett says the cost of investment is a lot higher than for a company that is in trouble. Buffett says that is just a fact of life right now. He says there are the blessed who have a government guarantee, and others who don't. Buffett says Berkshire will
11:09
A shareholder asks what the late
11:14
A shareholder asks if starting a smaller investment fund today what do about high returns on some stocks? Reinvest earnings somewhere else or sit on the high returns in the name of value investing? Buffett says he would buy good companies and keep them. And not worry about the stock price.
11:19
A shareholder says Berkshire's competitive advantage is Buffett and Munger. Buffett says that is not true. He says Berkshire's competitive advantage is a business model that is hard to copy. Buffett says for example shareholders hold onto Berkshire stock, with little turnover. He says there is no other company in the country that has the ability to do that now, or the ability to adopt that model in any big way. Buffett says any new CEO will be dedicated to that model in the future.
11:29
Buffett is asked why people shouldn't just invest in
11:32
Buffett is asked about inflation. He says the country will have inflation, and people holding government debt in the form of bonds will pay for that. Buffett says a good deal of that debt is being held by the Chinese. Buffett says the best protection against inflation is your own earning power. He says if you are the best teacher or whatever, you will command earning power and get your share of the national economic pie, regardless of the value of the currency. The second best investment, Buffett says, is in a good company. He says people will give up their own earnings to enjoy whatever product your company is making. Munger suggest becoming a brain surgeon and investing in Coca Cola instead of government bonds.
11:39
Buffett is asked at what price does it become compelling to invest in newspapers, and at what point does it become not a good investment? Buffett says newspapers problems have been accelerated by the financial crisis, but it is not the cause of newspaper problems. Buffett says he would not buy a newspaper stock at any price. He says they could well suffer endless losses. He says there was a time when they had pricing power and they were essential to consumers and advertisers. Now they have lost that essential nature, sports scores and other facts can be found elsewhere. Buffett says nobody liked buying ads in the newspaper but they did so because they worked. Buffett says that no longer is the case. Buffett says he will retain ownership of the Buffalo News however, and has been urged to do so. Buffett says Berkshire has worked with the unions in trying to have economi model that keeps making a little money. Buffett says as long as not face endless losses, and no union problems, we will stick with the compnay. Buffett says the Washington Post has some good businesses (and Berkshire has stock in the Post) but it does not have answers to the newspaper business. Buffett sys no one has found a new model for newspapers. Buffett says the Buffalo News is among newspapers playing out the game for as long as it can. Munger says loss of newspapers is a national tragedy. They have kept government honest and etc. and as they disappear what replaces them will not be as desirable as what the nation is losing. But he says, "such is life."
11:42
Buffett says retail is hit hard, but consumers will not spend a lot over the next few years. Berkshire's retail businesses will not do well for a period of time. Retail real estate like shopping centers will struggle, Buffett says. Buffett says the government urged people to save for years, and now that they are saving government is not pleased. Buffett says Berkshire's construction related businesses also will struggle, particuarly in some parts of the country like Florida,
11:47
Buffett is asked about Berkshire buying back its own shares. Buffett says most of repurchasing of shares recently has been foolish because the stocks were too expensive. Buffett says many companies did so to send out unjustified buy recommendations, though they would not admit that. Buffett says only in about 2000 did Berkshire think it might be worth buying back its own shares becuase it was demonstrably lower than intrinsic value. Buffett says that situation does not exist now. Buffett says 90 percent of repurchase decisions recently have not been
11:47
A shareholder says the new q-and-a format is very good and this one of the best annual meetings he has attended.
11:52
The same shareholder asks about opportunity costs of recent decisions made by Berkshire. Buffett says the situation recently has been fluid and fast moving. He says one key is Berkshire keeping a lot of cash around. But he says Berkshire got a lot of calls, and one of them was from Goldman Sachs, with a $5 billion investment. But that deal might not have happened even a week earlier than the call came in. And Berkshire actually sold some stock to remain comfortable cash-wise. Buffett says Berkshire was faced with the opportunity cost question in several situations that happened very quickly. Buffett says if something happened chaotic next week, it might move on some deals. Buffett says it also is hard to move billions of dollars from one holding to another. Buffett says he does live the opporuntity to make those kinds of decisions. Buffett says he had not faced in quite some time the kind of opportunities it saw last year.
12:08
Buffett says one mistake he made this year was buying into
12:09
The meeting is on lunch break.