2019-5-14 张化桥在”太平洋早餐会”的发言摘要。

Predicting China‘s asset prices:

Observers often ignore these 4 factors when predicting China asset prices (FX, bonds, stocks, etc).

(1) There are very few derivatives products (A contagion effect is slowed).

(2) The state sector is still the bulk of the economy (insensitive).

(3) The state still has major influence on the non-state sector (non-business calculations).

(4) The legal process (eg, fire sale) is often slowed by political intervention.