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China launches a pork-price index to smooth the “pig cycle”

The world’s largest pork market needs further consolidation

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Apr 21st 2017by THE DATA TEAM

PIG is big in China. As the country’s economy has grown, so too has its consumption of pork. The average Chinese person today pigs out on 40kg (88lbs) of pork a year, up from 12kg in 1980. Although China constitutes just one-fifth of the world’s population, it consumes half of its pork. Unfortunately for Chinese carnivores, however, the country has had trouble rearing enough pigs to meet growing demand. That has led to sharp price shocks.

China’s pork producers generally remain fragmented and inefficient. A fifth of the country’s domestic supply still comes from small-scale “backyard” farmers, who enter the market when prices suit them and exit just as abruptly. In recent years, such fluctuations in supply have contributed to large swings in prices, including spikes in 2008, 2011 and 2016. To smooth this boom-and-bust “pig cycle”, Chinese officials have used price controls, subsidies and even a “strategic pork reserve”.

Now, the government is trotting out yet another measure to hamstring opportunists in the pork market. In March China’s Ministry of Agriculture and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), a large commodities marketplace, launched the country’s first pork-price index. The new indicator, derived from daily data submitted by 89 hog producers across 16 provinces, will help farmers better understand market trends. Later this year, the DCE plans to launch a hog futures contract, which will allow buyers and sellers to hedge future price fluctuations. Such financial tools could help reduce volatility. But unless Chinese pork producers grow fat enough to absorb the regular ups and downs of the market, the country’s pig-price problems will persist.

2017年3月24日，农业部信息中心和大连商品交易所共同编制的生猪价格指数发布。

这是我国第一个带有质量标底的生猪价格指数，也是国内首个在政府对外服务网站发布的面向商业化应用的猪肉价格指数。

我国现存的猪肉价格指数有很多，已经具备一定的广泛性和代表性，已经具备成为政策制定行业监测的重要依据，但这些指数发布频率不够稳定，价格信息标准化程度不足，不能满足包括期货市场的商业化应用的需求。

大连商品交易所副总经理魏振祥说道：它对于价格指数有了三个定位，所以这个市场整个价格他更清晰，而且还有就是每天发布，通过这个指数了解整个行业的状况，有利于市场的投资者进行市场预警，进行生产经营指导。

经过对国内生猪全产业链价格形成机制深入调研，提出了统一标准，每日发布的设计理念，并在全国十六个主要的产销省份，在全国89个大型屠宰企业。

今日养猪业记者第一时间联系到天风证券农林牧渔高级分析师刘哲铭。刘哲铭表示生猪价格指数为大家产业投资提供一个权威的、可信任的判断标准。从生猪养殖来讲，有利于养殖户了解全国猪肉价格在什么样的位置，为整体生猪价格判断提供一个更权威的参照。在此之前，各方都愿意发布这些信息，但是由国家来发布权威性就更大一些。

据今日养猪业记者了解，此指数对于养猪人来说较模糊，指数仅仅能为养猪人提供了解趋势信息，但真正的价格位置并不能准确的表达。我们希望国家能更详细的公布生猪价格指数制定标准，更有利于养猪人了解市场并做出准确的判断。