加载中…程阳：2013年全球彩票销售2840亿美元增3.3%
(2014-04-15 14:16:19)
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程阳彩票2013全球彩票销售2013world-lottery-sales财经 |
分类： 程阳论彩 |
程阳：2013年全球彩票销售2840亿美元增3.3%
程阳：历年全球、历年中国彩票销售分析20140415.xls
【说明】
1、1996-2013彩票占GDP份额18年加权平均0.40%，彩票销售17年年均增长5.26%；
2、GDP与彩票销售的相关系数0.9905，彩票销售98.10%能用宏观经济GDP说明。；
3、彩票销售来自《世界彩票年鉴》，GDP数据来自世界银行、国际货币基金组织、美国中央情报局，该机构对往年的一些数据进行了调整，详见EXCEL表。
【程阳曰】多数中国媒体据此有类似“2011年世界彩票销售上升13%”的报道，这是需要商榷的。事实上，“世界彩票协会彩票指数（the WLA Quarterly Lottery Sales Indicator）”上升13%，与“2011年世界彩票销售上升13%”，两者之间有很大区别的。首先要明白，“指数”类的数据，并非统计数据，而是一类在特点模型下的“估计”或者“测算”数据，这有点类似我们日常生活中的“上证指数”或者“物价指数 CPI”一样，既然那么庞大、“专业”、要付法律责任的国家机构，出来的数据都令人生疑，我们就没有必要对“世界彩票协会”这样的“无责任机构”的统计方法较真，看看该指数“很二”的构成就一目了然了。
—— 程阳：“世界彩票协会彩票指数”fuzzy matrix
模型分析
程阳：《世界彩票年鉴》统计2011年全球彩票销售2620亿美元同比增长6.7%
La Fleur’s 2014 World Lottery Almanac—22nd Edition
The 448-page La Fleur’s 2014 World Lottery Almanac is the complete reference source on the $284 billion
worldwide lottery industry.
Section I features a “Fast Facts” compilation of data on North American lotteries, including startup
history, guide to product mix, government profits earmarking and video lottery terminal guide.
Section II features four-page profiles on 45 U.S., five Canadian and two Australasian lotteries. Each profile
traces the lottery’s calendar 2013 versus 2012 sales by game (instant, 3-digit, 4-digit, lotto, cash lotto,
keno, VLTs, niche games), its calendar 2013 versus 2012 instant sales by price point ($1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $7,
$10, $20) and its projected fiscal 2014 versus fiscal 2013 ad budgets by media and by game (as well as a
percentage of total sales). Each profile tracks the lottery’s five-year annual sales by game from fiscal 2009
through fiscal 2013. Each profile features the number and the percentage of total, instant and online
retailers by type of business, plus each retailer’s fiscal 2013 total, instant and online sales.
Section
III is divided into seven chapters:
worldwide lottery sales;
fiscal 2013 sales, profit and expense analysis;
the retailer network;
ad expenditures;
historical analysis;
contractor survey;
and calendar 2013 U.S. lotteries’ weekly sales by game.
The worldwide lottery sales chapter tracks calendar 2013
traditional game sales and VLT net machine income in
local currency and converted to U.S. currency for 181 lotteries worldwide, including rankings by total and per
capita sales for instant, lotto, total, keno, toto and draw games. There is a separate section on VLT net
machine income rankings. The historical analysis section features the U.S., Canadian and Australian lotteries
’ annual sales by year for the past decade for instant, pulltab, 3-digit numbers, 4-digit numbers, in-state
lotto, cash lotto, bloc lotto, Powerball, Mega Millions, fast draw and daily keno and VLTs. The contractor
guide features a monetary guide to U.S. lotteries’ instant ticket and system contracts. In addition, there is
a worldwide guide to instant printers and terminal system contracts by lottery organization. There is a
comprehensive Internet and Mobile Sales Report for 2013. The appendix includes a glossary of terms.
http://lafleurs.mybigcommerce.com/the-2014-world-lottery-almanac/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
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