程阳：1996-2012历年全球彩票销售与GDP份额

——2012年全球彩票销售2750亿美元增5.0%

1996-2012 Worldwide Lottery Sales and GDP Share (0.1bUSD,%)

程阳：历年全球、历年中国彩票销售分析（2013-4-8）.xls

【说明】  
 
1、彩票占GDP份额17年加权平均0.40%，彩票销售16年年均增长5.38%；
2、GDP与彩票销售的相关系数0.9886，彩票销售97.70%能用宏观经济GDP说明。；

3、彩票销售来自《世界彩票年鉴》，GDP数据来自世界银行，该机构对往年的一些数据进行了调整，详见EXCEL表。

La Fleur’s 2013 World Lottery Almanac—The 21st edition

The 472-page La Fleur’s 2013 World Lottery Almanac is the complete reference source on the $275 billion worldwide lottery industry. This edition features the all new Internet & Mobile Report, showcasing the calendar 2012 vs. 2011 total online sale & instant online sales for lotteries worldwide. The tables examine online sales as a percentage of a lottery's total sales & total instant sales. Growth is also measure by a 2012 versus 2011 analysis of online sales.

Section I features a “Fast Facts” compilation of data on North American lotteries, including startup history, guide to product mix, government profits earmarking including by program, and video lottery terminal guide.

Section II features four-page profiles on 45 U.S., five Canadian and six Australasian lotteries. Each profile traces the lottery’s calendar 2012 versus 2011 sales by game (instant, 3-digit, 4-digit, lotto, cash lotto, keno, VLTs, niche games), its calendar 2012 versus 2011 instant sales by price point ($1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $7, $10, $20) and its projected fiscal 2013 versus fiscal 2012 ad budgets by media and by game. Each profile tracks the lottery’s five-year annual sales by game from fiscal 2008 through fiscal 2012. Each profile features the number and the percentage of total, instant and draw retailers by type of business, plus each retailer’s fiscal 2012 total, instant and draw sales.

Section III is divided into seven chapters: worldwide lottery sales; fiscal 2012 sales, profit and expense analysis; the retailer network; ad expenditures; historical analysis; contractor survey; and calendar 2012 U.S. lotteries’ weekly sales by game. The worldwide lottery sales chapter tracks calendar 2012 traditional game sales and VLT net machine income in local currency and converted to U.S. currency for 181 lotteries worldwide, including rankings by total and per capita sales for instant, lotto, total, keno, toto and draw games.

There is a separate section on VLT net machine income rankings. The historical analysis section features the U.S., Canadian and Australian lotteries’ annual sales by year for the past decade for instant, pulltab, 3-digit numbers, 4-digit numbers, in-state lotto, cash lotto, bloc lotto, Powerball, Mega Millions, fast draw and daily keno and video lottery terminals. The contractor guide features a monetary guide to U.S. lotteries’ instant ticket and online system contracts. In addition, there is a worldwide guide to instant printers and terminal system contracts by lottery organization. The appendix includes a glossary of terms.

【程阳曰】多数中国媒体据此有类似“2011年世界彩票销售上升13%”的报道，这是需要商榷的。事实上，“世界彩票协会彩票指数（the WLA Quarterly Lottery Sales Indicator）”上升13%，与“2011年世界彩票销售上升13%”，两者之间有很大区别的。首先要明白，“指数”类的数据，并非统计数据，而是一类在特点模型下的“估计”或者“测算”数据，这有点类似我们日常生活中的“上证指数”或者“物价指数 CPI”一样，既然那么庞大、“专业”、要付法律责任的国家机构，出来的数据都令人生疑，我们就没有必要对“世界彩票协会”这样的“无责任机构”的统计方法较真，看看该指数“很二”的构成就一目了然了。

—— 程阳：“世界彩票协会彩票指数”fuzzy matrix 模型分析

程阳：“世界彩票协会彩票指数”2011年升13%

程阳：《世界彩票年鉴》统计2011年全球彩票销售2620亿美元同比增长6.7%