加载中…程阳：研究表明扑克属技巧游戏而非运气游戏
(2011-06-18 15:28:03)
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程阳彩票博彩扑克法律 |
分类： 环球博彩 |
程阳：研究表明扑克属技巧游戏而非运气游戏
A new study argues that poker is a game of skill, not chance.
May 19th 2011 | from the print edition
IS POKER “a gambling game, pure and simple”, as a judge in Louisiana called it in a much-cited 1910 judgment? Or is it a game in which skill plays an important role? The answer may help determine whether online poker games should be covered by a law that prohibits Americans from gambling over the web.
1910年，一起路易斯安那州判决这样定义扑克：“一种赌博游戏，纯粹、简单的赌博游戏。”这一定义被广为引用。果真是这样吗？扑克难道不是一种技巧成分很大的赌博吗？这个问题的答案事关禁止美国公民在线赌博的法律是否适用于在线扑克游戏。
So far, judges have tended to agree with the 1910 precedent. Future rulings will determine the prospects of a $6 billion industry. Yet there has been very little research into this subject, in part because of the paucity of data.
到目前为止，法官们倾向于同意1910年的判决。进一步的裁定将决定这一60亿美元产业的前景。但目前人们对此问题的研究还很不够，部分原因是数据太少。
A new study by an economist, Steve Levitt, author of “Freakonomics”, and Thomas Miles, his Chicago University colleague, uses data on those who took part in the 2010 World Series of Poker, an annual contest in Las Vegas. Last year it attracted over 32,000 players and gave out more than $185m in prize money. Because the tournament is open to anyone who pays the entry fee, its participants have varying levels of experience and differing records of success or failure.
最近，史蒂夫•莱维特（Steve
Levitt，即《魔鬼经济学》（Freaknomics）一书的作者）与其芝加哥大学同事托马斯•迈尔斯（Thomas
Miles）一起发表了一项新研究。该研究使用了2010年世界扑克系列赛选手的数据。世界扑克系列赛是一项在拉斯维加斯举行的年度赛事，去年吸引了32000多人参赛，总奖金额超过1.85亿美元。由于只要你出得起参赛费，该赛事就来者不拒，因此参赛选手的水平和胜败记录参差不齐。
Messrs Levitt and Miles divided participants into two groups. The first included those who, based on lists of the top players in 2009 and the results of previous tournaments, could be thought of as “high-skilled”; the second was everyone else. If poker were truly a game of luck, then the winnings of the 12% of entrants marked as specially gifted ought not to have differed significantly from those made by the rest.
莱维特和迈尔斯将参赛选手分为两组。第一组可视为“高手”，由2009年及以前此项赛事的获胜选手组成；第二组由其他选手组成。如果扑克果真是撞大运游戏的话，那么那12%被贴上天赋异禀标签的“高手”的输赢结果就不应该与剩下的选手有显著区别。
But the opposite proved to be true. Those who had done well before did well in 2010, too. Whereas ordinary players made a loss of 15.6%, the skilled made a return on investment of 30.5%, suggesting that poker is after all a game of skill. The economists say that similar tests of persistence in returns have also been used to detect whether mutual-fund managers have genuine expertise. In contrast to the case of poker, they point out, those tests have tended to find “little evidence of skill in this domain”.
但结果正好相反。前几年有过出色表现的选手在2010年继续大获全胜。普通组选手的损失为15.6%，而高手组取得了30.5%的投资回报，这表明扑克归根到底靠的是技术。两位经济学家还还说，类似的关于回报持久性的检验也被用于考察共同基金经理是否真的具有专业水平。他们指出，和扑克比赛的结果相反，“在该领域没看到多少技艺高超的证据。”
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