程阳：彩票十大谬论

Top Ten fallacies About Lottery

fallacy #1: Odds of being struck by lightning are better than the odds of winning a lottery.

 This fallacy was mathematically debunked by Iowa Lottery Commissioner Ed Stanek (who has a doctorate in physics) in an October 1997 issue of Public Gaming International magazine.

Statistics gathered by NASPL as well indicate that in one year alone (1996) 1,136 people won a million dollars or more and an additional 4,520 won $100,000 or more by playing North American lotteries. By contrast, 91 people were killed by lightning during that same year.

Also, what kind of a second prize does a lightning strike offer? Lottery players can win without actually hitting the jackpot, with lesser payouts for picking some of the correct numbers.

fallacy #2: Lottery is a form of taxation.

A tax is compulsory payment to support government. Citizens have no option in contributing to state revenue with mandated levies and other tariffs. In fact, they may go to jail if they don't pay.

Playing the lottery is entirely voluntary. Whether as a regular purchase or as an occasional play, buying a lottery ticket is an individual choice. The only consequence to not playing lottery is missing some fun and possibly a prize.

fallacy #3: Lotteries prey on the poor by target marketing to those who can least afford to play.

Come on, what fiscally responsible company would focus its best marketing efforts on people who can't afford to buy the product? This does not make good business sense.

Lottery products are marketed in qualifying retail outlets. These sites are predominantly convenience stores, gas stations and supermarkets. If zoning regulations in high-income neighborhoods prohibit convenience stores, gas stations and supermarkets, you won't see many lottery retail sites in those areas. If there is a concentration of qualifying retail outlets in less affluent areas of a community, you will see many more lottery retail sites in those areas. This makes it appear that lottery sales sites are chosen by income level when in fact this is just not true.

Also keep in mind that players buy tickets in areas where they work and shop, not necessarily where they live. A Minnesota survey found that more than half the players bought tickets in zip codes outside their own home zip code.

Even if lottery organizations wanted to bow to this common fallacy and restrict the sale of products in low-income neighborhoods, they would face discriminatory charges from the qualifying retailers who are being denied a government contract. Also, citizens being denied access to lottery products based on their income would probably have as strong a case against the state as disabled people who are denied access to lottery products in retail outlets that are not ADA compliant.

fallacy #4: Lottery purchases are made mostly by low-income people.

Many studies show that this fallacy is unfounded. Numerous surveys conducted by individual lotteries show that their players cross-section the overall population in that jurisdiction.

A 1997 poll commissioned by the Washington Post found that middle income Americans were the most likely group to play the lottery and that the wealthiest and poorest were least likely to play. The survey says:

Two out of three Americans with annual household incomes ranging $25,000 - $45,000 played the lottery at least once a year; one out of four played monthly. \
Americans earning $45,000 - $65,000 played even more often: three-fours occasionally, one-third at least once a month.
More recently, a Gallup Poll on Gambling in America this year shows that 57 percent of American adults had bought a lottery ticket in the past 12 months and:
Those with $45,000 - $75,000 incomes were most likely to play; 65 percent had played in the past year.
Those with incomes less than $25,000 were least likely to play (53 percent).
Those with incomes more than $75,000 spend about three times as much on lotteries each month as those with incomes under $25,000.

fallacy #5: That billboard thing in Illinois.

This fallacy, like most urban legends, is perpetrated for its sensationalism and does not reflect factual accuracy about the lottery industry.

We who support the state lottery industry take every opportunity possible to correct the bad press lottery has received due to erroneous reporting about billboards placed in Illinois in 1986. Opponents charged the Illinois Lottery with targeting advertising specifically to a poor neighborhood with a billboard picturing a lottery ticket and the wording "Your ticket out of here."

In reality, the billboard read "How to get from Washington Street to Easy Street" and was only one of hundreds placed in various locations (in a variety of income level neighborhoods) with the street name changed for each. The Washington Street location was on the main access road to Chicago Stadium and was chosen simply to reach an entertainment-seeking audience.

fallacy #6: You get nothing for your lottery purchase if you don't win a prize.

Lottery is a game. Games are entertaining. The entertainment factor in lottery is multifaceted:

With the purchase of a lottery game a player gets the fun and suspense of scratching latex squares, breaking open a pull-tab, or choosing his special "lucky" number combination for a winning sequence that may allow him to claim a prize.
Non-winners often have an opportunity to enter special drawings for a second chance at winning prizes.
Probability games add to the entertainment factor in that every ticket will be a winner if it is played correctly. How the ticket is played (which areas are uncovered) becomes an entertaining challenge.
The growing number of television tie-in lottery games also adds another dimension of entertainment to lottery games with comedy, drama and suspense all rolled into the show.

fallacy #7: Lottery is responsible for the growing number of compulsive gamblers in the United States.

Compulsive gambling is addictive behavior, and like other forms of pathological addiction, it involves biological and psychological factors that predispose an individual to the behavior. Providing a substance does not create an addict.

A National Survey on Gambling Behavior conducted for the National Gambling Impact Study Commission last year found there is no relationship between problem gambling rates and the presence or absence of a lottery. Survey tabulation noted that "it does not appear that the availability of a lottery has an impact on (problem gambling) prence rates."

Other studies indicate that compulsive gamblers choose high-excitement games filled with sensory stimulation, games that involve skill, and immediate gratification for their play. Sensory stimulation, a skill level, and immediate payout are not part of lottery play.

But lotteries organizations do not bury their heads in the sand and deny that the problem of compulsive gambling exists. Most have taken a proactive approach in identifying the problem and providing avenues of help for those afflicted in their jurisdiction. Nearly all U.S. Lottery organizations include a Play Responsibly message in promotion of their games.

fallacy #8: Because state governments benefit from lottery proceeds, they can't be trusted to regulate their industry.

We trust states to make their own tax policy-and many other decisions regarding their citizens-so why shouldn't states be trusted to regulate their own lottery organizations? There is nothing to hide. Lottery files are public record and open to scrutiny by the media and by the citizenry. Lottery board meetings and legislative hearings also are open to the public. And these state lottery proceedings are much more accessible than those of federal regulatory agencies.

fallacy #9: There is no assurance that lottery drawings are conducted fairly.

The state lottery industry is one of the most scrutinized industries that ever existed. Security has always been of highest priority in selling lottery products and in conducting lottery drawings. A high level of security and public drawings are what separate state lotteries from, and sets them above, numbers games sold on the streets.

Using state-of-the-art draw machines and televising official drawings are means employed to ensure that every player has the same chance to win. For instant games, the lottery industry requires secure printing facilities and controlled distribution; the industry also is moving in the direction of bar coding and all electronic validation equipment.

fallacy #10: Since there are relatively few payouts compared to the number lottery tickets sold, few people (only holders of winning tickets) actually benefit from lottery.

Millions of people have won thousands of cash prizes playing lottery games. But there are many more millions of people who also are lottery winners.

Lottery retailers earn commission on the sale of lottery products, and this income contributes to the economy for everyone in a jurisdiction.
The vendors and suppliers who provide the hardware, software, tickets, advertising services and the many other goods and services it takes to run a lottery also strengthen the economy through their enterprise.
Lottery winnings spent on goods and services in a jurisdiction also contribute to economic prosperity for all.
In the 37 states and District of Columbia that operate government sanctioned lotteries, a total population of more than 230 million citizens wins by benefiting from lottery proceeds that support a variety of projects.
Sharon Sharp's subsequent presentation on "Where the Money Goes" will show you how lottery supports good causes in jurisdictions throughout the United States.