加载中…实盘日记58——双击
(2012-03-29 16:44:03)
标签：
外汇股票 |
分类： 用实盘解 |
双击
……陈宏杰博客
按Siegel的数据，1802年～1870年股市平均收益率为7.0%；1871年～1925年为6.6%；1926年至今为6.9%；两百年的均值为6.9%，即两百年来平均静态市盈率(PE)为15倍。我们可以假定这个值为介入的基础。加入彼得·林奇的成长因子，即增长率若高于市盈率，则可接受市盈率将相应提高。如果有一只“老陈股份”EPS为0.2元，明年预期为0.3元，增长率为50%；则可接受的PE值相应由15倍提升到20倍，甚至40倍——视各人投资风格与预期值而定。Davis家族有个双重击打和双重斩杀的说法，Davis家族传奇可参阅John
Rothchild所撰《戴氏王朝》——双重击打：牛市里企业的盈利上升，股票PE的容忍值也上升；双重斩杀：熊市里企业的盈利下降，股票PE的容忍值也下降。还是拿这只老陈股份为例，06年EPS为0.2元，07年为0.3元，在06年PE是20倍，07年为30倍，则在业绩只上升50%的前提下，股价已上升125%，双重击打即成立。如果老陈股份06年EPS为0.2元，07年为0.1元，在06年PE是20倍，07年为15倍，则在业绩只下降50%的前提下，股价已下跌63%，若升回原位则须上升167%，双重斩杀即成立。双重击打和双重斩杀其实就是企业内生性增长和外延式增长共同作用提升股价的表现形式，西方投资谚语“double
or nothing”说得就是这个。内生性增长和外延式增长一直是股市永恒的主线。陈宏杰博客
对冲账户成交了大约10余单，现持仓2个品种2张多单、1张空单、7张限定，浮动损益+9.70元。账户经过一次结算，结算前数据见《实盘日记45——月报》。
| 初值 | $500,000.00 | |||||||
| 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | |
| 2011/12/09 | $500,000.00 | |||||||
| 2012/01/09 | $534,078.11 | 6.82% | 6.82% | 2012/02/09 | $594,834.48 | 0.31% | 18.97% | |
| 2012/01/13 | $567,456.78 | 6.25% | 13.49% | 2012/02/10 | $595,200.12 | 0.06% | 19.04% | |
| 2012/01/14 | $569,887.18 | 0.43% | 13.98% | 2012/02/13 | $595,680.96 | 0.08% | 19.14% | |
| 2012/01/16 | $569,915.62 | 0.00% | 13.98% | 2012/02/14 | $602,347.20 | 1.12% | 20.47% | |
| 2012/01/17 | $569,963.76 | 0.01% | 13.99% | 2012/02/15 | $603,495.48 | 0.19% | 20.70% | |
| 2012/01/18 | $570,195.56 | 0.04% | 14.04% | 2012/02/16 | $603,797.88 | 0.05% | 20.76% | |
| 2012/01/19 | $570,910.56 | 0.13% | 14.18% | 2012/02/17 | $604,273.24 | 0.08% | 20.85% | |
| 2012/01/20 | $572,462.31 | 0.27% | 14.49% | 2012/02/18 | $611,148.23 | 1.14% | 22.23% | |
| 2012/01/21 | $575,101.00 | 0.46% | 15.02% | 2012/02/20 | $611,278.46 | 0.02% | 22.26% | |
| 2012/01/23 | $575,214.13 | 0.02% | 15.04% | 2012/02/21 | $611,665.93 | 0.06% | 22.33% | |
| 2012/01/24 | $577,350.87 | 0.37% | 15.47% | 2012/02/22 | $611,709.13 | 0.01% | 22.34% | |
| 2012/01/25 | $577,808.39 | 0.08% | 15.56% | 2012/02/23 | $635,685.13 | 3.92% | 27.14% | |
| 2012/01/27 | $584,651.54 | 1.18% | 16.93% | 2012/02/24 | $635,858.40 | 0.03% | 27.17% | |
| 2012/01/28 | $585,197.78 | 0.09% | 17.04% | 2012/02/27 | $659,790.20 | 3.76% | 31.96% | |
| 2012/01/30 | $586,052.78 | 0.15% | 17.21% | 2012/02/28 | $659,833.40 | 0.01% | 31.97% | |
| 2012/01/31 | $586,248.68 | 0.03% | 17.25% | 2012/02/29 | $660,481.40 | 0.10% | 32.10% | |
| 2012/02/01 | $586,921.75 | 0.11% | 17.38% | 2012/03/01 | $663,717.24 | 0.49% | 32.74% | |
| 2012/02/02 | $590,297.15 | 0.58% | 18.06% | 2012/03/02 | $664,235.64 | 0.08% | 32.85% | |
| 2012/02/03 | $590,997.98 | 0.12% | 18.20% | 2012/03/05 | $667,006.35 | 0.42% | 33.40% | |
| 2012/02/04 | $591,848.33 | 0.14% | 18.37% | 2012/03/06 | $667,177.82 | 0.03% | 33.44% | |
| 2012/02/06 | $591,982.60 | 0.02% | 18.40% | 2012/03/07 | $670,004.86 | 0.42% | 34.00% | |
| 2012/02/07 | $592,634.84 | 0.11% | 18.53% | 2012/03/08 | $670,134.46 | 0.02% | 34.03% | |
| 2012/02/08 | $593,025.00 | 0.07% | 18.61% | 2012/03/09 | $670,350.93 | 0.03% | 34.07% | |
| 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | 时间 | 终值 | 环比 | 总损益 | |
| 2012/03/12 | $670,369.20 | 0.00% | 34.07% | |||||
| 2012/03/13 | $671,526.04 | 0.17% | 34.31% | |||||
| 2012/03/14 | $671,592.43 | 0.01% | 34.32% | |||||
| 2012/03/15 | $671,627.09 | 0.01% | 34.33% | |||||
| 2012/03/16 | $671,764.95 | 0.02% | 34.35% | |||||
| 2012/03/20 | $671,809.01 | 0.01% | 34.36% | |||||
| 2012/03/21 | $671,933.26 | 0.02% | 34.39% | |||||
| 2012/03/22 | $673,073.97 | 0.17% | 34.61% | |||||
| 2012/03/23 | $674,104.92 | 0.15% | 34.82% | |||||
| 2012/03/26 | $674,563.95 | 0.07% | 34.91% | |||||
| 2012/03/28 | $675,269.40 | 0.10% | 35.05% | |||||
| 2012/03/29 | $675,963.96 | 0.10% | 35.19% |
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
|
Price |
Profit |
|
1826771 |
2012.03.28 07:41 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59329 |
1.58929 |
2012.03.28 12:30 |
1.58929 |
20.13 |
|
1826778 |
2012.03.28 07:41 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59391 |
1.58991 |
2012.03.28 11:59 |
1.58991 |
20.13 |
|
1827829 |
2012.03.28 08:36 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.59132 |
1.59082 |
2012.03.29 04:48 |
1.59082 |
-5.03 |
|
1827831 |
2012.03.28 12:30 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58932 |
1.59082 |
2012.03.29 04:48 |
1.59082 |
15.09 |
|
1831170 |
2012.03.28 14:15 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58732 |
1.59082 |
2012.03.29 04:48 |
1.59082 |
70.40 |
|
1831743 |
2012.03.28 12:55 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58941 |
1.58991 |
2012.03.28 19:03 |
1.58991 |
2.52 |
|
1831746 |
2012.03.28 13:50 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58741 |
1.58991 |
2012.03.28 19:03 |
1.58991 |
12.58 |
|
1831801 |
2012.03.28 12:56 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58843 |
1.58893 |
2012.03.28 18:50 |
1.58893 |
2.52 |
|
1831807 |
2012.03.28 14:15 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58643 |
1.58893 |
2012.03.28 18:50 |
1.58893 |
12.59 |
|
1833049 |
2012.03.28 14:27 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58541 |
1.58991 |
2012.03.28 19:03 |
1.58991 |
45.29 |
|
1833511 |
2012.03.28 14:32 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58532 |
1.59082 |
2012.03.29 04:48 |
1.59082 |
110.63 |
|
1833521 |
2012.03.28 14:15 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.33100 |
1.33200 |
2012.03.28 18:59 |
1.33200 |
20.14 |
|
1833524 |
2012.03.28 14:46 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.32743 |
1.33200 |
2012.03.28 18:59 |
1.33200 |
40.28 |
|
1833555 |
2012.03.28 14:46 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58443 |
1.58893 |
2012.03.28 18:50 |
1.58893 |
45.31 |
|
1834114 |
2012.03.28 14:35 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58463 |
1.58863 |
2012.03.28 18:39 |
1.58863 |
40.29 |
|
1839166 |
2012.03.28 20:47 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.58892 |
1.59292 |
2012.03.29 07:56 |
1.59292 |
20.09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 613.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Closed P/L: |
5 613.96 |
|
|
Open Trades: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
|
Price |
Profit |
|
1844216 |
2012.03.29 01:48 |
buy |
eurusd |
1.33097 |
1.33537 |
|
1.33202 |
6.53 |
|
1849680 |
2012.03.29 06:19 |
sell |
gbpusd |
1.59225 |
1.58825 |
|
1.59096 |
6.49 |
|
1853960 |
2012.03.29 08:07 |
buy |
gbpusd |
1.59134 |
1.59534 |
|
1.59068 |
-3.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Floating P/L: |
9.70 |
|
|
Working Orders: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ticket |
Open Time |
Type |
Item |
Price |
T / P |
Market |
Price |
|
|
1844218 |
2012.03.29 01:48 |
buy limit |
eurusd |
1.32937 |
0.00000 |
|
1.33231 |
Buy.2 |
|
1811156 |
2012.03.27 08:20 |
sell limit |
gbpusd |
1.60133 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59068 |
Sell.5 |
|
1834012 |
2012.03.28 14:32 |
buy limit |
gbpusd |
1.58332 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59096 |
Buy.5 |
|
1834116 |
2012.03.28 14:35 |
buy limit |
gbpusd |
1.58263 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59096 |
Buy.2 |
|
1834430 |
2012.03.28 14:46 |
buy limit |
gbpusd |
1.58243 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59096 |
Buy.4 |
|
1849683 |
2012.03.29 06:19 |
sell limit |
gbpusd |
1.59425 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59068 |
Sell.2 |
|
1853962 |
2012.03.29 08:07 |
buy limit |
gbpusd |
1.58934 |
0.00000 |
|
1.59096 |
Buy.2 |
|
Summary: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deposit/Withdrawal: |
670 350.00 |
Credit Facility: |
0.00 |
|
|
|
||
|
Closed Trade P/L: |
5 613.96 |
Floating P/L: |
9.70 |
Margin: |
80.00 |
|||
|
Balance: |
675 963.96 |
Equity: |
675 973.66 |
Free Margin: |
675 893.66 |
|||
链接：
前四十篇
实盘日记第一篇 《实盘日记⑴——刺猬》
实盘日记二月篇 《实盘日记23——月报》
实盘日记三月篇 《实盘日记45——月报》
实盘日记上一篇 《实盘日记57——猜想》
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